An unsettled forecast is the last thing that punters need before the most important betting week of the Flat season, and the 30 races at Royal Ascot could yet be run on soft going or good‑to-firm, with very different results according to how many showers, if any, arrive in Berkshire before the opening day on Tuesday.
The forecast does at least seem to rule out any chance of watering, however, and it stills seems more likely than not that the going will be good at worst. If so, Time Test could be the outstanding bet of the meeting at around 3-1 to beat A Shin Hikari in Wednesday’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes.
A Shin Hikari has been the strong favourite for this race since running away with Prix d’Ispahan last time out, and on the face of it, what was, officially at least, a 10-length success in a Group One is more convincing form than a neck defeat of Western Hymn in a Group Three at Sandown Park.
That also feeds into the prices, however, and wide-margin wins on soft ground can be deceptive. It was closer to seven lengths than 10, so even the judge seems to have been carried away.
Time Test, though, may well have put up a similarly impressive performance in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes without the fact registering in quite the same way. He was giving 5lb to the field, made plenty of ground from two out to hit the front inside the final furlong, and did so in a lightning-fast time.
There are few false favourites for Group One races these days, but at the very least, Roger Charlton’s Time Test should be closer to A Shin Hikari in the betting, assuming the ground does not turn soft. He has yet to win at Group One level, but 3-1 is a very fair price for Wednesday to be the day when he makes the breakthrough.
Tuesday’s St James’s Palace Stakes is the obvious rival to the Prince of Wales’s Stakes as the outstanding contest of the week. The 2,000 Guineas winners from England, France and Ireland are all in the field, and so too is Emotionless, a late absentee from the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket but also a colt who could yet prove to be the best of the lot.
It would be extraordinary to win a race of this quality on his three-year-old debut, however, and Awtaad, the Irish Guineas winner, makes more appeal at 9-4.
Yalta had two quick races from the middle of May but looked polished and professional in both and is a big price at 7-1 for the Coventry Stakes the same day, when Belardo should also have a race run to suit in the Queen Anne Stakes. Tepin, the winner of her last six races in American and five Group Ones in all, will be the favourite here, but turf form in the States is far less reliable on Ascot’s undulating mile with no bends.
Usherette was an impressive winner at Newmarket’s Guineas meeting and should justify André Fabre’s faith in her ability in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes on Wednesday, while Order Of St George should send Aidan O’Brien even further clear as the most successful trainer in the Gold Cup, a race he has won six times already.
Drafted will take some stopping in the Norfolk Stakes, which opens the Gold Cup day card, and Quiet Reflection can back up her breakthrough success in the Sandy Lane Stakes by winning Friday’s Commonwealth Cup.
Saturday’s big races are both six-furlong sprints, and The Tin Man could land the Diamond Jubilee Stakes for James Fanshawe while Kevin Ryan’s Brando looked a little unfortunate at York last time and is a worthy 10-1 favourite for the Wokingham Handicap.
