Thirty races, horses from four continents, but just two odds-on favourites. There may not be anything to jump, but Royal Ascot is a more than a match for Cheltenham in terms of its depth and competitiveness, and from a backer’s point of view, the opening day this year will, like the first afternoon at the National Hunt Festival in March, set the mood for the rest of the week.
There were four hot favourites at the top of the card three months ago, and it was only the fall of Annie Power at the final flight in the Mares’ Hurdle that spared the bookmaking industry an eight-figure payout. Ascot’s opening day dangles three favourites at 5-2 or shorter, including Gleneagles, the winner of the English and Irish 2,000 Guineas, who is top-priced at 4-6 to follow up in the St James’s Palace Stakes.
An SP accumulator on the four hot favourites at Cheltenham, though, would have paid about 12.5-1. The three apparent good things at Ascot on Tuesday would return about 14.5-1 at current prices, which suggests that one, at least, will let the punters down.
Make Believe, the French 2,000 Guineas winner, is the only obvious danger to Gleneagles (4.20) in the feature event, but Aidan O’Brien’s colt has several pounds to spare on the ratings and is a worthy odds-on chance. Solow (2.30) is a more attractive price in the Queen Anne Stakes and worth backing to beat Able Friend, the best horse in Hong Kong, who will be racing away from Sha Tin for the first time.
The weak link on the opening day could well be Round Two, whose form in two starts is promising but a little short of the level that justifies odds of 5-2 for the Coventry Stakes. The Richard Hannon-trained Log Out Island (3.05), who beat the subsequent Woodcote winner Buratino first time out, is a more attractive bet at around 7-1.
The market for the King’s Stand Stakes make it look like a handicap and the draw may well play a significant part in the outcome. Shamal Wind (3.40) could be the pick of the Australian contingent, while Digeanta (5.00), whose trainer, Willie Mullins, supplied all the favourites on the first day at Cheltenham, appears to have been laid out for the Ascot Stakes.
Wednesday’s Prince of Wales’s Stakes is as competitive as most of the meeting’s handicaps but The Grey Gatsby (4.20), a horse who rarely gets the credit his performances deserve, is a plausible 6-1 chance. You’re Fired (5.00) did enough last time to make him a contender for the Royal Hunt Cup, while Euro Charline (3.40), who finished behind Solow on World Cup night in Dubai last time out, is an interesting contender for the Duke of Cambridge Stakes.
Thursday’s Gold Cup has an unbeaten favourite in Forgotten Rules, who took the stayers’ event on Champions Day in October and looked every bit as good on his seasonal debut at Navan in May. Fast ground would be an unknown for Dermot Weld’s gelding, however, and Clever Cookie (4.20), who looked better than ever in a Listed race at York last time out, may have been underestimated at 12-1.
Limato (3.40) was beaten for the first time in the Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock last month but should be able to return to winning form on faster ground in the Commonwealth Cup on Friday, while Ervedya (4.20), the French 1,000 Guineas winner, can follow up in the Coronation Stakes the same afternoon.
Mustajeeb (4.20) did enough at The Curragh last time to give him an obvious chance in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, while Kickboxer (5.00) is a serious contender for the Wokingham Handicap at 14-1.
