Bathyrhon
From in-form French yard that had a winner in England in March. Was gradually stepped up in distance last year and came within a neck of winning a Group One at the first attempt when tried at the Gold Cup distance at Longchamp in October, staying on strongly. Didn’t figure behind Brown Panther in Dubai, his first run of the year, but a switch to front-running tactics saw him win a Group Two last time. Has a fair chance here, though would probably be best to settle just behind the pace rather than making it himself.
Biographer
Plenty of talent but has remained winless since October 2012 and all three of his successes have come with some give in the ground, which he won’t get here. Some of his beaten efforts suggest he’s not far off the best stayers and he will probably do better than on his seasonal reappearance last time. But even in races at this distance, his lack of pace makes him vulnerable.
Forgotten Rules
Unbeaten in four starts and with a master trainer who won this race five years ago, Forgotten Rules would be the right favourite if eventually committed to the race. But those close to him are concerned that the fast surface he is likely to find here on Thursday will not suit. He has never raced on faster than “good” going and his best performance, here in October, was on heavy. If, as many fear, he is not actually comfortable on such a fast surface, he won’t beat a talented field like this.
Havana Beat
His only success in his last 14 starts was in a Listed contest against three rivals when he got up close home to score by a head and a neck. Was beaten 12 lengths into seventh in this race last year with no clear excuse but it may be that he’s stronger at the age of five because his most recent two efforts, in Dubai and at York, look like career bests. It would still be a major surprise if he were good enough to take this.
Kalann
Irish handicapper and occasional hurdler who was in the form of his life when third in the Doncaster Cup in September, beaten a length and a half. If able to reproduce that, he’d show up well here but it is the standout effort on his record to such an extent that one can hardly rely on something similar. Can probably still be forgiven his recent defeat, which was his first outing since the autumn. Will cope with the fast surface, better than many.
Simenon
Has a fine record at Royal Ascot, having won twice here in 2012, albeit at a much lower level than this. Stepped up to the Gold Cup in 2013, he was beaten just a neck but could only manage fourth last year, staying on past beaten horses. Has since had time off with a stress fracture over his right knee. In the circumstances, his reappearance fifth last month was very fair but it is three years since his last win on the Flat and his profile is gradually becoming less attractive.
Tac De Boistron
A potent talent at his best but his best has been on soft going so far. Indeed, he has never won on any other surface and it is asking a lot of this gallant grey to score on fast ground for the first time at the age of eight, in one of the strongest races he has ever contested. But he will have no issues with the necessary stamina or the course, having won by five lengths here last spring. It is almost two years since he finished worse than second and, given that he has sometimes run well on a dry surface, some will be prepared to take a chance on him.
Forever Now
Attractively bred and from the Newmarket stable of John Gosden, who is having such a good year. This four-year-old’s best effort so far was making all to land a Listed contest at Goodwood last summer but he scrambled home a short-head in front of the runner-up. Stepped into better quality since then, he has not looked a strong stayer at two miles and this trip seems beyond him, for now at least.
Kingfisher
The only runner from the Irish yard of Aidan O’Brien, who has won this race six times in nine years with three different horses. Kingfisher spent last summer acting as pacemaker for a more high-profile stablemate but is being reinvented this year as a stayer and has made interesting progress so far. Although seven lengths behind Forgotten Rules on his reappearance, he predictably improved for that to score last time at Leopardstown, settling well in a first-time hood and staying on stoutly. He must prove his stamina for this race, over an extra three-quarters of a mile, but is a better horse than his record really shows and Ryan Moore is likely to get the best out of him here.
Mizzou
From a Newmarket yard that does well with its stayers, Mizzou has improved in each of his six starts, most recently winning by daylight here in April in a race that has been a good trial for this. As that was the first start of his four-year-old season, it is not unreasonable to expect better again. He looks a strong stayer with a touch of class and it will be disappointing if he is not involved.
Scotland
Just one success so far, in a minor race at Epsom in 2013 on his second outing, and he was last of 12 in the St Leger last autumn, his only previous try in a Group One race. That was also his only race beyond a mile and a half and his profile does not suggest he will be a strong stayer at this much longer distance.
Trip To Paris
Showed potential when winning a handicap here last summer and has really built on that this year, winning three times in a row, the most recent being the Chester Cup in May. He was then beaten less than two lengths by Vent De Force when second in a good trial for this race at Sandown, staying on well. If there is more improvement to come, as seems likely, he will be a contender.
Vent De Force
Threw in a couple of poor efforts last year but otherwise has a clearly progressive profile. Second to Mizzou at this track on his April reappearance, he then beat Trip To Paris at Sandown, both bits of form that entitle him to get into the argument here. His win last time had something to do with a masterly ride from the front by Richard Hughes, who is on board again. Those tactics are less likely to work in this bigger field of stronger quality and perhaps Hughes will try something different on a horse who seems versatile.
Windshear
Beaten less than a length in a handicap at Royal Ascot last year, when he did well to overcome a terrible draw, Windshear has been very consistent but has always looked a bit below this class. He was a game fourth in the St Leger over the longest distance he has tried. Perhaps he could do better in this marathon but the other possibility seems more likely. Fast ground is fine for him and his poor effort two runs ago at Chester had a lot to do with soft going.
