PITTSBURGH — You are 24. You have played in 24 big league games. You have 85 at-bats. Your team is offering you a guaranteed long-term contract worth millions. You would be set for life. Your kids and their kids would be set. You never dreamed there was so much money in the world.
You sign, right?
Ke’Bryan Hayes didn’t.
His decision was fascinating even if it couldn’t have been easy.
Here’s how it works in baseball:
A team generally has complete control over a player’s salary for the first three years of his major league career. It can assign him the minimum salary or slightly more each year.
The power switches to the player in his fourth season when he becomes eligible for salary arbitration. There are exceptions — you’ve heard of Super 2 status? — when a player advances to arbitration after just two seasons. Hayes almost certainly will be a Super 2, giving him potentially four cracks at arbitration. A player either wins in that process or wins bigger.
Then, after six years, a player becomes a free agent and can sell himself to the highest bidder. That is when he really can strike gold.
It’s believed the Pirates offered Hayes a deal that would buy out his arbitration years, perhaps even a year or two of his free agent years. They are willing to spend more in the short term to save millions in the long term. They also get cost-certainty with Hayes. That is important to any small-market team that is trying to build.
Is it a gamble for a team to do a long-term contract with a young player? Sure. What if the player gets hurt? What if he underachieves? That’s what happened with Jose Tabata. The Pirates gave him a six-year contract worth a guaranteed $14.75 million with three option years in August 2011. He turned out to be a bust. The same thing is happening with Gregory Polanco. The Pirates signed him to a five-year, $35 million deal with two option years in April 2016. He has been a bust to this point, although he is expected to be in the starting lineup in Chicago against the Cubs on opening day Thursday, batting fifth and playing right field.
But a young player also can lose — relatively speaking — if he agrees to a multi-year deal. What if he becomes a star and outperforms his contract? That’s what happened with Andrew McCutchen. The Pirates signed him to a six-year, $51.5 million contract in March 2012. He went on to become a National League MVP. I know, he’s set for life. But he could have made tens of millions more if he had gone through arbitration and waited for free agency.
Hayes appears capable of being the Pirates’ next big thing. There are no guarantees, of course. Remember Josh Bell? Certainly, there are no guarantees with Hayes, son of former big-leaguer Charlie Hayes. He long has been a terrific fielder at third base, but he didn’t hit more than 10 home runs in any of his five minor league seasons. He hit .265 at Triple-A Indianapolis in 2019.
But Hayes looked like a sure thing last season when he made his big league debut Sept. 1 against the Cubs at PNC Park. He went 2 for 5 with three runs scored, a double and a game-tying home run. He finished the year with a .376 batting average and a 1.124 OPS with 14 extra-base hits, including five home runs. He has continued his hot hitting this spring. He is expected to bat second in the lineup.
With Bell gone to the Washington Nationals in a Christmas Eve trade, there is significant pressure on Hayes to be the new face of the franchise. Derek Shelton is convinced Hayes will stand up to that pressure and stare it down.
“We just want Key to be Key,” Shelton said.
The Pirates were betting on Hayes being another McCutchen when they made him their long-term contract. They believe he’s going to be a star.
Hayes also is betting on Hayes being another McCutchen. That’s why he turned down the team’s offer.
