PITTSBURGH — Pitt was ranked No. 17 in the Associated Press preseason college football poll Monday, its first ranking in the top 25 of that poll since 2010. Penn State wasn't ranked for the first time since 2016.
Two immediate thoughts:
Pitt is the better team, not just because of the poll, but because it clearly has passed Penn State since it went 1-3 against the school out east from 2016-19, including a 51-6 loss at Heinz Field in 2018. That delights Pitt fans, who still remember Penn State coach James Franklin saying, arrogantly, after the Penn State win in 2017, "This was just like beating Akron."
Just as clearly, Penn State has the better program and always will be the better program as long as it is in the Big Ten. Pitt is in the second-rate ACC. I know, the truth hurts.
Let's begin with the short term.
As always, the 2022 season largely will come down to the quarterbacks for Pitt and Penn State.
Pitt is counting on USC transfer Kedon Slovis to keep the momentum going from its Kenny Pickett-led ACC championship last season. That is a lot to ask of any quarterback, considering Pickett finished third in the Heisman Trophy voting and was the Steelers' No. 1 draft choice.
Penn State is hoping Sean Clifford can make Pickett-like improvement after coming back for a fifth season. There's no doubt Penn State would have beaten Iowa in its sixth game last season, gone to 6-0 and been ranked in the top five if Clifford hadn't been injured late in the second quarter. Inexplicably, Franklin didn't have a backup quarterback ready who could even handle a snap from center. Penn State blew a 17-3 lead and never recovered, finishing with a 7-6 record. It is 11-11 in the past two seasons.
I like Pitt's chances a little more because of the cast around Slovis — both offensively and defensively — even though Biletnikoff Award-winning wide receiver Jordan Addison has moved on to USC.
Pitt's entire offensive line, led by left tackle Carter Warren, returns intact. That line play helped Pickett lead an offense that averaged 41.4 points and 486.6 yards per game. Pitt easily could have — perhaps should have — gone 13-0 in the regular season if not for bad home losses to Western Michigan, a 14 1/2 -point underdog, and Miami, a 9-point underdog. It's long been a Pitt curse, losing games it should win.
Penn State's offensive line has been a weakness during most of the Franklin era. That's a big reason the team didn't have a 100-yard rusher in any game last season for the first time since 1978. Is that hard to believe or what? It also is a big reason why Penn State averaged just 25 points and 376.4 yards per game.
Pitt also has a better defensive line led by Calijah Kancey and Habakkuk Baldonado. Its pass rush was ferocious, getting five sacks in the ACC title game win against Wake Forest and finishing the season with 54, second-most in the country. Pitt's 151 sacks in the past three seasons were the nation's most.
You win games up front, right?
Pitt also has an easier schedule. The ACC isn't nearly as strong as the Big Ten. Pitt doesn't have to play Clemson and North Carolina State, the two favorites in the ACC. Its only opponent ranked in the AP poll is Miami at No. 16.
Penn State's first three road games are at Purdue, Auburn and Michigan. It could be 3-3 at that point. It also must play Ohio State and Michigan State. Franklin is 1-7 against Ohio State and 3-5 against Michigan State and Michigan. I know he's been a terrific recruiter, but he hasn't been much of a game-day coach. I still can't believe Penn State gave him a 10-year, $75 million extension through the 2031 season.
Now, the long term.
Penn State has a huge advantage over Pitt because it is in the stable and lucrative Big Ten. There is a good chance more conference realignment will lead to two super conferences — the Big Ten and SEC. If that happens, schools such as Pitt and West Virginia could be left playing second-tier football.
Again, sorry.
Did I mention the Big Ten is lucrative?
Reports have the conference closing in on a new $1 billion-a-year television deal with Fox, NBC and CBS. That would give each conference school a payout between $60 million and $70 million a year.
The ACC's deal with ESPN is practically peanuts by comparison. It was signed in 2016 and runs through the 2036 season, paying each conference school about $17 million a season. The ACC schools also agreed to a grant-of-rights provision that gives the conference control of media rights and the money that goes with them of any school that leaves the ACC during the duration of the deal.
Don't count on Pitt joining Penn State in the Big Ten.
Pitt should be so fortunate.
