Far-right candidate George Simion, who took the lead in the first round of the Romanian parliamentary elections on 4 May, will face off against the centrist mayor of Bucharest, Nicușor Dan, in the second round on Sunday. The election is a re-run, after November 2024's vote was annulled. RFI spoke to political scientist Sergiu Miscoiu from the Babes-Bolyai University in Cluj-Napoca about this hotly contested ballot.
Simion, a former football hooligan, is known for his fiery speeches and his admiration for US President Donald Trump. He won a comfortable 40.9 percent in the first round. If he wins the second round, his victory could have a significant impact on the country’s relationship with the EU and NATO.
His rival, Nicușor Dan, a centrist who secured less than 20 percent of the vote, hopes to attract undecided voters in an effort to prevent a nationalist shift under the Eurosceptic Simion, who opposes sending aid to neighbouring Ukraine.
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According to political scientist Sergiu Miscoiu, no previous Romanian election has been this polarising.
"An increasing number of Romanians are challenging the entire political and administrative system, as well as the decision-making rules and procedures. Many are also rejecting the political class itself," he told RFI.
Miscoiu explains that both candidates are "anti-system to some extent". However, the difference lies in their approach. Dan and his supporters aim to reform the system to align it more closely with liberal democracy, while Simion’s supporters are pushing for "illiberal sovereignism and populism as a natural policy".
This divide is unprecedented in Romania. "We have always had polarisation in the second rounds," said Miscoiu, "but never in a way that called into question the very existence of the democratic system or the geopolitical direction of Romania."
The last major schism occurred 25 years ago, when Corneliu Vadim Tudor, the leader of the far-right Greater Romania Party, qualified for the second round of the 2000 elections. However, he secured only 30 percent of the vote and lost to former Communist Ion Iliescu.
'A gift for Russia'
According to Miscoiu, Simion's pursuit of "illiberal democracy" is in emulation of Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
"His intention is to turn Romania into a player that is totally independent from the other EU countries, to cultivate relations with Russia, China, Turkey and other big powers on its own, without correlating with the EU and without being constrained by [EU] rules."
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Miscoiu views Simion's ideas as "a reference to [Cold War leader Nicolae] Ceaușescu's National Communism, where Romania pursued an international course that was quasi-independent from the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact of Eastern European countries controlled by Moscow".
"The implications of Romania falling under the rule of an illiberal leader... the reorientation of the entire eastern flank of the European Union and of NATO could be possible," he added.
A Simion win could mean that Romania will be "thrown back into the grey zone" of pre-1994, when the country had not yet decided whether it wanted to join either the EU or NATO.
Miscoiu said: "This is exactly what the Russians expect – creating a new breach and supporting in this way the idea that there are direct negotiations individually with European Union states, with NATO states, and not with the alliance and the Union as a whole. For Russia, this is a gift."
If Romania falls under the rule of an illiberal leader, the reorientation of the entire eastern flank of the European Union and of NATO could be possible.
REMARK by Sergiu Miscoiu, political scientist with the University Babes-Bolyai in Cluj-Napoca
Second attempt
These elections come after a failed vote in 2024, the results of the first round of which were annulled by Romania's top court, citing allegations of Russian interference.
This time, according to Miscoiu, Russia has played it safer. "They did not directly publicly support Simion, in order to not put the Romanians in a situation of choosing between Russia and the West, because they will definitely choose the West."
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In his campaign, Simion "softened his discourse by strengthening the importance of the EU and NATO," he said.
Miscoiu predicts that Simion will win on Sunday by "at least" 53 percent. However, he added, a television debate on Euronews Romania last Thursday showed Dan in combative mode, while Simion looked "a little grotesque with his accusations" so the tide could still be turned.
But, he added, if there is "no big mobilisation for the second round – especially of the youth who will be the most affected by this dramatic change of policy in Romania – then the gap is too big". Dan will have to recover a massive 30 percent to catch up with his opponent.
