FiveThirtyEight, the statistical analysis website run by Nate Silver, has a brand new stat for the NBA that likes the odds of the Houston Rockets for the upcoming 2019-20 season.
The statistic, called “RAPTOR” (Robust Algorithm [using] Player Tracking [and] On/Off Ratings), was designed to upgrade their previous performance tracker, CARMELO. It also predicts that the Rockets have the best odds of winning the NBA Finals this year.
It’s not particularly close, either. The Rockets have a 26 percent chance to get that ever-elusive ring, with the Los Angeles Clippers taking home the next highest odds at 17 percent after they acquired both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George this offseason.
The projection also has the Rockets finishing tops in the league in wins with a record of 57-25. It has them as the West’s No. 1 seed taking on the eighth-seeded Dallas Mavericks in the first round.
RAPTOR doesn’t take too kindly to some of the league’s big movers in this offseason. The Los Angeles Lakers only have a 4 percent chance of winning the Finals despite adding superstar Anthony Davis. The Utah Jazz also improved their roster, adding the likes of Mike Conley and Bojan Bogdanovic, but are at just 2 percent.
The old projection statistic, CARMELO, had the Rockets with the second-best title odds behind the Philadelphia 76ers. RAPTOR, though, fits right into the philosophy of the Rockets. Here’s what Silver has to say about it:
“NBA teams highly value floor spacing, defense and shot creation, and they place relatively little value on traditional big-man skills. RAPTOR likewise values these things … RAPTOR thinks ball-dominant players such as James Harden and Steph Curry are phenomenally good.”
FiveThirtyEight has definitely found success with its NBA projections in the past, even as recently as last year’s Finals. It correctly predicted the Toronto Raptors to win against the Golden State Warriors, which they ended up doing.
The Rockets will need to prove themselves if they want to win a championship. With Russell Westbrook now on the roster in place of Chris Paul, the team will have to develop chemistry quickly in a very different, but still extremely competitive, Western Conference.
