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Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Rod Minchin & Marthe de Ferrer

Rising sea levels 'will force 187 million people out of their homes', researchers predict

Scientists have predicted that global sea levels will rise two metres or more and that this will lead to “catastrophic” consequences.

If sea levels rise in this way, we can expect to lose 1.79 million km² of land, including critical regions of food production.

This land loss would also lead to the displacement of up to 187 million people.

A team of experts have found that coastal communities could expect a sea level rise in excess of two metres this century.

Lead author professor Jonathan Bamber from the University of Bristol said: "Such a rise in global sea level could result in land loss of 1.79 million km2, including critical regions of food production, and potential displacement of up to 187 million people.

"A subsequent sea level rise of this magnitude would clearly have profound consequences for humanity."

Traditional methods for predicting rising sea levels from the melting ice sheets in Greenland and the Antarctic are based on numerical modelling.

Such projections remain challenging due to ongoing uncertainty regarding the evolution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, particularly in response to climate change.

A team of international scientists used a technique called structured expert judgment to ask 22 ice sheet experts to estimate plausible ranges for future sea level rises.

Bamber added: “Projections of total global subsequent sea level rise using this method yielded a small but meaningful probability of subsequent sea level rise exceeding two metres by the year 2100 under the high temperature scenario, roughly equivalent to 'business as usual', well above the 'likely' upper limit presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."

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