When Jo Loring started running the Cosy Dove pub in Newcastle 11 years ago, he would have to usher his customers out of the doors at 11pm so he could close up over Christmas.
Now, after a year of relentless financial challenges, he says he’ll probably be closing early this year, with fewer punters there to hear the bell ringing out for last orders.
“We’ll be closing early because there’s virtually no one around,” he tells The Independent, adding that he thinks he’ll be around 20 per cent down on sales from last year. “It’s what you’d call a perfect storm,” he says. “It’s a very different landscape, and it’s ever-changing – all the pubs around me are saying a similar thing.”
Loring is one of countless pub owners across the UK who fear this will be one of the most challenging festive seasons the industry has ever seen.
Dawn Hopkins, 56, who runs the Rose Inn in Norwich, described having to cope with a “tsunami of cost rises” that have hit independent businesses hard. Like many other pub owners, she will be serving more expensive pints this Christmas, with most looking at an increase of between 30p and 50p a pint.
Hopkins, who is also the vice-chair of the Campaign for Pubs, says: “I’m hearing from people who say they are really quiet and they are a bit worried. Some hope they’re going to get to Christmas Day, but don’t know if they will.”
Figures from trade bodies reveal that one pub will have closed its doors every single day in 2025, with more than 400 having closed down in 2024. The closures come amid a continued struggle in the years since the pandemic, alongside what many pub owners believe to be hostile financial measures brought in by successive governments.
Alastair Scoular took over his family pub The Steam Packet Inn in 1995, but says he has never known the situation for pubs in rural Scotland to be “as tough as it is” right now.
“Usually Christmas in Scotland tends to be a lot busier around the new year, and we’d get quite a few parties in the run-up – but we’ve certainly not had the same number of bookings,” he says.
“We’re going to take what we can, but it won’t be a golden time that will help us get through the winter. I used to bank on a certain amount of income to get through January and February, but I’m not this year.”
Tom McNeeney has run The Oxford in Rochdale for 13 years, but says the last 12 months have been “disheartening”. He says his pub, which employs 21 people and serves around 1,800 customers a week, is seeing a return in footfall following Covid – but is still struggling to make a profit.
“The pubs that are still open are busier than ever – but profitability is lower than it’s ever been,” he says. “What we’re seeing is almost impossible to comprehend, because pubs that are busier than they’ve been in six years are closing up shop because profitability is at an all-time low.”
He adds: “In December we are going to be busy, and seen on the face of it as thriving, but that’s part of the problem. It’s easy to look at a busy business and assume it’s doing well, but the reality underneath is that there’s a real problem with keeping open.”
McNeeney explains that young people, who are likely to go out and socialise at Christmas, have been particularly affected by the loss of approximately 89,000 jobs in the sector. He says reforms to business rates, as well as higher rates of pay for 16- to 21-year-olds, mean the sector will see this “epidemic of unemployment reach new highs”.
“Most people in that under-25s bracket are the people who go out and discover places in the local area, but if they don’t have part-time jobs or disposable income, they’re not investing in the local businesses and communities around them,” he explains.
He also notes that December, once considered a profitable time of year, is now just “a downpayment for January”, when he will have to reduce his pub’s opening hours and close for a week.
Wesley Birch, 40, who runs a catering company and two pubs in Stroud, tells The Independent he and his wife have had to waive their salary for the first time since they began running Birch Catering 15 years ago.
Birch, who runs the Ship Inn and The Old Neighbourhood Inn, says that although there has never been much profit in hospitality, this year they have had to “work for nothing”.
“We’re really well supported by the community – but the problem is there’s no profit margins,” he says, adding that there are concerns that people will “tighten their belts” once more following the tax rises in this year’s Budget.
He says: “Having as much turnover this Christmas is vital, whereas in previous years I didn’t even think about it. I used to have enough profit in the business to give people time off, but this year it’s not possible at all.”
Chris Welch, 39, who runs the Fishnet Tavern in North Tyneside, says his pub almost had to close last January, and fears being in a worse position this time round.
“I’m terrified this year. I feel like I’m personally trying to do a good deed by employing five staff and creating local employment, but I’m dreading it. Every month feels like an uphill battle. I don’t even take a wage,” he says.
Keir Starmer has described pubs and bars as “the beating heart of our communities”, and said that the government is “backing them to thrive”.
But Welch says his business rates evaluation is set to increase by an extra £4,000 each year following the Budget, and calls it a “disgrace”. “It’s dark times for pubs, and I doubt we will survive past August next year,” he says.
In Crewe, Jacqui Ayling and her husband Sean believe this could be their last Christmas running Tom’s Tap and Brewhouse. The pair have already had to close on Mondays and Tuesdays, and are planning to close on Wednesdays and Sundays as well through the colder months.
“We cannot afford the overheads incurred by opening the pub for a session in the cold months, when our customers are less likely to come out on those days,” says Jacqui.
This Christmas, the pair have had to think much more about getting people through the door – having noticed a sharp drop in the number of Christmas parties being booked.
“We were maybe doing one or two a week, eight or so in December – but not one this year,” she says. “Companies are cutting down as well, so they can’t afford staff parties any more. It’s had a knock-on effect.”
Fiona Hornsby, 45, runs three pubs in Liverpool, and she is also finding it harder to attract customers over Christmas. “We are decorating the exterior this year, too, so we stick out a bit more so people can see you,” she says. “You’ve got to be everywhere now... It’s getting harder.”
Gary Timmins, pub and club campaigns director at Camra, says extra footfall over the festive period is “vital” and helps to see businesses through the quieter months at the start of the year. But he adds: “Government also needs to play their part to reduce costs and give our locals a fighting chance, by making the business rates, VAT and beer duty systems fairer. Otherwise, we risk losing more pubs for good.”
Business minister Kate Dearden said: “Pubs are essential parts of our communities and vital to our economy. Running them takes hard work and dedication. We know that pubs need our support to deliver, and we’ve begun that work by capping business rates for most properties at 15 per cent, when they were facing a 45 per cent hike.
“We’re slashing red tape so that more pubs can offer al fresco dining, and more funding to support rural pubs. At the Budget, we made the decision to ask online giants and the wealthiest properties to pay more, so local pubs and communities get the backing they deserve.”
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