Much of being prime minister is necessarily reactive, but as Rishi Sunak pushes back against everything from green policies to traffic schemes, it can sometimes feel as if he is not so much running a government as responding in real time to newspaper campaigns.
Prime ministers often run out of policy steam if kept in office long enough, gradually slipping into a comfort zone of keeping the friendly media onside and giving in to the niche concerns of their loudest MPs.
Sunak, it should be remembered, has only been in No 10 for nine months, albeit at the tail end of a five-prime-minister-long sequence of Conservative governments since 2010.
But as Sunak builds up to his first proper holiday in four years later this week with a series of interviews, visits and photo opportunities focused on non-core voter issues such as low-traffic neighbourhoods and the apparent Brexit dividend for beer duties, some of his MPs are wondering where exactly the strategy lies.
The slightly trite answer is: Uxbridge. Railing against London’s soon-to-expand ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) charge for highly polluting vehicles was seen as a key factor in the Tories narrowly winning this month’s byelection in the outer London seat formerly held by Boris Johnson.
However, a highly local issue in a constituency does not necessarily amount to a national revolt by outraged, over-taxed motorists, whatever the wish-fulfilment projection of some columnists.
And while bellicose words about ending a supposed war against drivers and “maxing out” North Sea oil and gas might thrill friendly rightwing newspapers and some Conservative MPs, other Tory backbenchers are more nervous.
Some of those facing a Liberal Democrat challenge have taken to WhatsApp groups in recent days to question whether the pushback against green policies, even if thus far largely symbolic and performative, risks putting off a public which, polling suggests, often supports environmental measures.
Sunak’s gambit is not entirely new. Within just a few years of entering No 10, David Cameron had moved from hugging huskies to ordering officials to “cut the green crap”.
But what is notable about Sunak, beyond the speed of his shift into reactive mode, is the way he often seems to be waging war against existing Conservative policies, such as low-traffic neighbourhoods, a pet project of Johnson.
There are times when Sunak’s overriding goal seems to be blocking anything that might upset the Daily Mail or Telegraph, such as the curious intervention last month to stop South Cambridgeshire district council trialling a four-day week for staff, despite early results showing it had been hugely successful.
Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, said Sunak’s newspaper-friendly tactics seemed aimed at mobilising the Conservatives’ core vote, thus limiting losses at a general election where the party is currently polling around 20 points behind Labour.
“There’s a degree of following [Tory strategist] Lynton Crosby’s mantra of getting the barnacles off the boat – the government is entering an election, so get rid of anything that they think might be unpopular,” he said.
“But I think there’s also just a degree of desperation, and that can translate into doing things their friends in the newspapers suggest. Politicians, particularly Conservative politicians, think that the the Mail, the Sun and the Telegraph in particular have a kind of mainline into the thinking of voters.
“Also, a lot of this stuff is cost-free. None of it requires the government to actually legislate or spend any money.”
Focusing on third-tier issues such as low-traffic neighbourhoods, Bale added, was also a sign of structural weakness given the usual things government talk about – the economy and public services – are in such a poor state.
In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph last weekend, Sunak attacked Keir Starmer for, as he put it, lacking any “principles and values” to underpin his goals as Labour leader, a jibe others might see as more apt for a prime minister who marketed himself as a centrist technocrat only to become a culture war-waging near-populist.
Bale, however, said this was more a case of high office revealing the real Sunak: “I would argue that Rishi Sunak is actually quite rightwing, like George Osborne on austerity and pretty socially conservative. It’s just people are now noticing this.”
