Iran holds a parliamentary election on Friday. It is feared that hard-line conservatives will gain momentum and tension with the United States will increase further.
In Iran, where politics and religion are unified, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei holds the authority to make final decisions. The president and the parliament have limited powers. Nevertheless, the international cooperation policy of moderate conservative President Hassan Rouhani has played a certain role in Iran's foreign policy.
In the last election four years ago, the moderates and reformists who supported Rouhani made great strides and formed a majority. Expectations for economic growth through cooperation with Europe and the United States led to an increase in the number of seats they held in the parliament. However, this time, a downturn trend in such seats will be unavoidable.
The economic sanctions imposed by the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump has put the Iranian economy in a difficult position. Hard-line conservatives who make strong anti-American proclamations claim that Rouhani's conciliatory foreign policy has failed.
In addition, many moderate and reformist incumbent parliamentary members and candidates were disqualified from running in the election in prior vetting. The Guardian Council comprising Islamic jurists appointed by Khamenei decided whom to disqualify.
The Iranian leadership seems to be trying to strengthen its power base by packing the parliament with hard-liners. Against this background there has been a series of incidents in which the regime's prestige has been eroded amid intensifying confrontation with the United States.
An influential commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that Khamenei has direct control over was killed in a U.S. attack. Unprecedented anti-government demonstrations in Iran took place to protest against the leadership when it tried to conceal the fact that the IRGC mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian airliner.
Important to continue talks
The hard-liners are calling for the continuation of "retaliation" against the United States. The Iranian leadership should realize that hard-line measures will make it harder for Iran to have the sanctions lifted and escape from international isolation, as well as making it difficult to keep its people from criticizing the regime.
What is important is for Iran to continue dialogue with the United States and Europe to dispel mutual distrust. It is also essential to abide by the Iranian nuclear agreement and refrain from actions that could destabilize the region, such as an intervention in the civil wars in Syria and Yemen.
The responsibility of the United States is also significant. It is undeniable that the "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran has put Rouhani and moderates in a corner and encouraged hard-liners. Trump's impulsive behavior will only increase the risk of conflict between the United States and Iran.
The U.S. Senate has passed a resolution limiting the president's authority to take military action against Iran. Trump must take seriously the fact that some ruling Republican Party members voted in favor of the resolution.
Japan and European countries need to continue their efforts to mediate between the United States and Iran to ease tensions.
(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Feb. 21, 2020)
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