Summary
- The Liberal Democrats have produced a stunning byelection victory to unseat Zac Goldsmith in Richmond Park, overturning a 23,000 majority to remove the former Conservative MP in a vote that became a de facto plebiscite on the government’s referendum plans. The swing to the Lib Dems was 21.5 points, putting this on a par with some of the party’s best ever byelection results (although Goldsmith was standing as an independent, so technically it was not a proper Conservative to Lib Dem swing.) Labour’s candidate came a distant third, losing his deposit.
- Sarah Olney, the winning Lib Dem candidate, said the result would create a “shockwave” and send a clear message to the government that people do not want a hard Brexit, or to leave the single market. (See 2.52pm.)
- The Conservatives have dismissed the result, insisting that it will not change government policy towards Brexit or Heathrow. (See 2.34pm.)
That’s all from me for tonight.
I’ll be back tomorrow - well, later today - with a new blog with reaction and analysis.
Sarah Olney's victory speech
Here is an extract from Sarah Olney’s victory speech.
A year and a half ago I was not involved in politics, I was not a member of a political party, I had never been involved in a political campaign, I had never thought about being a politician. But I knew I was a liberal. I believed in openness, tolerance, compassion, working with our neigbours around the world.
When I saw what happened at the general election last year I felt I had ot get involved.
I think a lot of people in this community had the same feeling after the referendum. Richmond Park is full of people like me who felt something was going wrong, that the politics of anger and division were on the rise, that the liberal tolerant values we took for granted were under threat. We perceived the Ukip vision of Britain in the ascendancy, intolerant, backward-looking, divisive, just as we see it in America and across Europe.
Well, today we have said no. We will defend the Britain we love. We will stand up for the open, tolerant, united Britain we believe in. The people of Richmond Park and North Kingston have sent a shockwave through this Conservative Brexit government and our message is clear: we do not want a hard Brexit, we do not want to be pulled out of the single market and we will not let intolerance, division and fear win.
Conservative party says Richmond Park result will not affect Brexit or Heathrow
The Conservative party was not standing in the byelection, but it is the first party to sent out a formal comment about the result. This is from a party spokesman.
Commiserations to Zac Goldsmith on his defeat. Zac has been a strong and principled champion for the residents of Richmond Park and North Kingston over the past six years as their member of parliament, and a popular figure in the Conservative party. We are sorry that he is no longer in the House of Commons.
This result doesn’t change anything. The government remains committed to leaving the European Union and triggering article 50 by the end of March next year. In addition, we will continue to take decisive action in the national interest to secure the UK’s place the world - supporting a third runway at Heathrow to secure jobs and business opportunities for the next decade and beyond.
Election results in full
And here the results in full from the Press Association.
Sarah Olney (LD) 20,510 (49.68%, +30.41%)
Zac Goldsmith (Ind) 18,638 (45.15%)
Christian Wolmar (Lab) 1,515 (3.67%, -8.68%)
Howling Laud Hope (Loony) 184 (0.45%)
Fiona Syms (Ind) 173 (0.42%)
Dominic Stockford (CPA) 164 (0.40%)
Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir (Love) 67 (0.16%)
David Powell (ND) 32 (0.08%)
LD maj 1,872 (4.53%)
Electorate 77,243; Turnout 41,283 (53.45%, -23.01%)
Here the key results again. When they were being read out we could not hear the full figure for Sarah Olney because her supporters started cheering as soon as they heard “twenty thousand, five hundred ...”
Zac Goldsmith: 18,638
Sarah Olney: 20,510
Christian Wolmar: 1,515
Christian Wolmar says many people in this constituency wanted to vote Labour but lend Sarah Olney their vote. He tells Olney not to ignore them, and not to become Tory-lite.
He says he is glad that people voted against Brexit.
And this was also a vote against Zac Goldsmith, and his “ghastly” mayoral campaign, he says.
He says Labour remains the party of hope. It will defend the disadvantaged in society. It understands how you build community, he says.
He thanks his team, and says it was a privilege to be a candidate here.
Zac Goldsmith says he held this byelection to keep a promise. He says he will miss not being MPs here. He loves this community, he says. He wishes Sarah Olney well and hopes she will serve the community.
Sarah Olney's speech
Sarah Olney is speaking now.
She thanks the candidates, and tell Zac Goldsmith that she will continue his fight against Heathrow expansion.
She thanks her campaign staff, and her family and friends.
And she thanks party members, who helped.
And she thanks the Greens, More United and Women’s Equality party, who also helped.
A year ago she was not in politics, she says. But she knew she was a liberal.
She says a lot of people in Richmond Park felt the same after the EU referendum. They felt their values were under threat. Today they have said no. They will defend the Britain they love. She says the people of Richmond Park have sent a shockwave through Britain. They do not want a hard Brexit. They do not want to be pulled out of the single market. And they do not want to let fear win.
Lib Dem Sarah Olney wins Richmond Park byelection
We are now getting the results.
Zac Goldsmith: 18,638
Sarah Olney: 20,510
Christian Wolmar: 1,515
Updated
The candidates have been called up to the front to be told the results. That means we should get the public declaration any minute now.
Zac Goldsmith has just arrived. He did not say anything as he came in, despite Sky’s Jon Craig - in best Gobby tradition - shouting at him: “What did you lose? Was it because of Brexit?”
This is from the Lib Dem peer Olly Grender.
This is first by-election win under the leadership of new Campaigns Director Shaun Roberts @ShaunR_LB https://t.co/bpuiFdYrr4
— Olly Grender (@OllyGrender) December 2, 2016
The Lib Dems have called it but team Zac are not conceding yet, at least to me. “The Lib Dems probably would say that, wouldn’t they?” said one aide. “We’re not saying it’s over.”
To me they looked very glum. And the Lib Dems say they’re sure of victory. Official declaration soon, they say.
Lib Dems say they have won
A Lib Dem source says:
We’re calling it. We’ve won. We’ve overturned a 23,000 majority.
Lib Dems confident they have won
The Lib Dems are saying they have won.
Updated
This is from the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush.
Just re-upping what I wrote after Witney: https://t.co/44Q4zDAq4H pic.twitter.com/MwoCAllgZo
— Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) December 2, 2016
A crowd of photographers are by the door, because the Lib Dem candidate, Sarah Olney, is due to arrive.
Updated
On Twitter, Sky’s Faisal Islam has been reminding people of this claim about the likely byelection result that Zac Goldsmith made on the day he triggered the byelection. Goldsmith said:
People here feel as strongly as I do about the issue [Heathrow]. You can have a referendum about Heathrow and you will get Zimbabwean-esque results.
Almost everyone is opposed. It has massive massive implications, way beyond Richmond Park. It affects a million people, it’s a significant chunk of our population.
I don’t believe Heathrow will be delivered. I see this byelection as a referendum on Heathrow.
Updated
The Labour candidate, Christian Wolmar, has just arrived with an entourage. There was no cheering.
Updated
Another Lib Dem source says:
It is looking good for us. What is clear is that Zac’s majority has pretty much evaporated.
Lib Dems says they are 'optimistic' about winning
Alistair Carmichael, the Lib Dem MP and former Scottish secretary, is at the count. He is now saying his party is “cautiously optimistic”.
LibDem MP Alastair Carmichael tells Adam Boulton he's "cautiously optimistic" his party going to win Rich Pk poll. pic.twitter.com/lmrs1CBhre
— joncraigSKY (@joncraig) December 2, 2016
Here’s a chart showing previous Lib Dem byelection wins, and the swings achieved in them.
If the figures coming out of the Labour camp are correct - and, remember, that’s an if, they are unconfirmed - the swing here would be 22.5% from Conservatives to Lib Dems.
Biggest CON to LIB/SDP/LD swings in by-election gains from CON. Rumoured numbers huge, but not unprecedented... (Source mostly Pippa Norris) pic.twitter.com/pzYcYS12Ly
— Matt Singh (@MattSingh_) December 2, 2016
Here’s the scene at the count.
Zac Goldsmith’s makeshift team of mainly young and very enthusiastic volunteers are still insisting their man can win.
“There’s more twists and turns to come,” one told me. “It’s looking very tight.”
The team are a mix of Conservative activists and those who support Goldsmith personally, some from Richmond and others from around London. Of course, it’s too early for anyone to be admitting defeat. But their protestations looked genuine.
It wouldn’t be a byelection without the monster raving loonies.
We should get a result within the next hour, according to the BBC’s Chris Mason.
Whispers there cld be a declaration within the next hour. But the word 'imminent' is always defined rather elastically on nights like this
— Chris Mason (@ChrisMasonBBC) December 2, 2016
I tried unsuccessfully an hour or so ago to get the Lib Dems to say they were “optimistic”. But now, according to the BBC’s Vicki Young, they’ve managed it.
Lib Dem by-election agent goes on TV to say he's "cautiously optimistic" - which means they've won. #RichmondPark
— Vicki Young (@BBCVickiYoung) December 2, 2016
This is from the BBC’s Chris Mason.
As nerdy facts go, this is a corker: 53.6% is the highest turnout in a December by election since Enfield Southgate in 1984 @BBCNews
— Chris Mason (@ChrisMasonBBC) December 2, 2016
Those raw figures - Lib Dems 55%, Zac Goldsmith 39% - would give Sarah Olney a majority of about 6,600. But Labour think it won’t be quite that high because those figures do not include postal votes.
It should be stressed that these are not official figures - just internal estimates from one party. But at this stage at a count, a party with competent counting agents should be able to produce figures accurate to within 1 or 2%.
Updated
Lib Dems heading for a majority of more than 2,000, Labour sources say
Labour think the Lib Dems are on course to win with a majority of more than 2,000.
From what they have seen of the ballot papers coming out of the boxes, they think the Lib Dems are getting 55% of the vote, and Zac Goldsmith 39%. These figures do not include postal votes, which should be skewed towards Goldsmith a bit, but Labour think it is very, very hard to see the Lib Dems losing. Sarah Olney should have a majority of between 2,000 and 4,000, they say.
They also believe it will be touch and go as to whether Labour’s Christian Wolmar loses his deposit.
Tidied up, like for like: very very close between Olney and Goldmsith, there's definitely been a LibDem surge pic.twitter.com/wfaocHVakq
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 2, 2016
On Tuesday the Lib Dems took the unusual step of releasing canvass return figures showing them ahead. Parties usually downplay expectations ahead of an election, but the party decided to release its numbers, and talk up its chances, to help get its vote out. According to those numbers, Sarah Olney was on 47.2% and Zac Goldsmith 45.8%.
Those figures, on the basis of today’s turnout, would give the Lib Dems a majority of 579.
Turnout is 53.6%
The verification process is over, and the turnout has just been announced.
Some 41,367 votes were cast - a turnout of 53.6%.
The Lib Dems have certainly given this seat the kitchen sink treatment. They say they have had 50,000 conversations with voters. They have also knocked doors 150,000 times (though not each door 150,000 times, obviously - they’ve knocked 150,000 doors, although a lot were the same doors, because there aren’t that many in the constituency. They’ve also distributed 1,000 window posters and put up 700 stakeboards.
The boards have certainly been noticed. This is from the FT’s Henry Mance.
If Richmond by-election were about the number of placards, it'd be:
— Henry Mance (@henrymance) November 30, 2016
1. Lib Dems
2. Winkworths
3. Zac Goldsmith https://t.co/ejXVfi34Yb
A source from the Zac Goldsmith campaign has been speaking to reporters. “It is certainly looking very tight,” he said. He also thinks the turnout is around 50%.
The Lib Dems are still refusing to say that they are confident of winning. But they look pretty confident to me. Labour think they have won. And so does Betfair. (See 11.52am.)
Betfair now has the Lib Dems favourite to win, according to Number Cruncher Politics.
BREAKING: #LibDems now favourites on Betfair, following reports of strong vote sampling numbers #richmondparkbyelection
— NumbrCrunchrPolitics (@NCPoliticsUK) December 1, 2016
If the Lib Dems win tonight, it will be the first time they have gained a seat in a byelection 10 years. There was a time in the 1990s when the Lib Dems seemed to win every byelection going, but they have not taken a seat in one since Willie Rennie won Dunfermline and West Fife in February 2006.
Earlier there were predictions that turnout would be around 40%. (See 10.52pm. But now Labour and the Lib Dem sources are both saying it looks more like 50%. The Lib Dem thinks that helps them. And they reckon postal voting is relatively low, which they think disadvantages Zac Goldsmith.
The Lib Dems are still officially in ‘too early to tell’ mode, but they do seem quietly confident.
Proper counting has not started yet. The tellers are still verifying the votes - making sure that the ballot boxes contain the number of ballot papers they are supposed to contain.
But counting agents can observe the process, watching the ballot papers being unfolded, and Labour and the Lib Dems are both running a proper counting operation - keeping their own tally from the crosses in the boxes they can actually observe.
The Lib Dems are still being cautious, but someone from the Labour camp said it is looking like a Lib Dem win - “and not in recount territory, either”.
ITV’s Paul Brand posted this on Twitter earlier today.
Senior Labour HQ source tells me the party could lose its deposit in Richmond. Not entirely sure if it's dark humour or totally serious.
— Paul Brand (@PaulBrandITV) December 1, 2016
My colleague Peter Walker posted this on Twitter.
One factor seems to be low-ish turnout, in part perhaps because of chilly day today. Is that bad for Lib Dems or Goldsmith? We'll see.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) December 1, 2016
It prompted this response:
@peterwalker99 I voted around 1pm, my polling station said 10% turnout by then. Only up to 25% when husband voted at 7pm
— Laura Hart (@LauraHartvoice) December 1, 2016
Updated
Here is the Lib Dem candidate Sarah Olney with her husband Ben voting earlier.
Sky’s Faisal Islam has been tweeting from the count.
Should be stressed that it is extremely out of the ordinary that a Governing party is not defending its seat - not since Tony Benn 1963 1/4
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 1, 2016
In case you have forgotten the details of the Bristol south east byelection of 1963, this is what Wikipedia has to say on the subject.
The seat had become vacant in 1961 when the constituency’s Labour Member of Parliament (MP) Tony Benn had inherited from his father an hereditary peerage as Viscount Stansgate, thus making him ineligible to serve in the House of Commons. He had been elected at a by-election in 1950.
Benn stood in the 1961 by-election anyway, but due to his ineligibility, the Conservative Party candidate Malcolm St Clair was declared the winner.
When the law was later changed to allow Benn to renounce his peerage, St Clair resigned his seat, triggering the 1963 by-election. Benn won again, with nearly 80% of the votes. The Conservatives did not nominate an official candidate, the last by-election in Great Britain in which there was no Conservative candidate until the Batley and Spen by-election in 2016, and the last by-election in Great Britain where the Conservatives did not field a candidate in a held seat until the Richmond Park by-election in 2016.
And Macdonald 1936 too - but v.specific circumstances, fair to say unprecedented for Conservatives not to to have stood in Richmond 2/4
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 1, 2016
... no sign at all of Team Zac at count yet (Team Zac includes Tory councillors/neighbouring Tory MPs). LibDems say made 50,000 contacts 3/4
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 1, 2016
(The tweet above was posted a while ago. Team Zac are here now, or at least some of them.)
LibDems say Brexit number 1 issue in their canvassing, also have long roots in this seat (council, ex MP)...23,000 is a Big majority tho 4/4
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 1, 2016
Updated
Here is Zac Goldsmith and his wife Alice voting earlier today.
A contingent of Zac Goldsmith activists have just arrived, including the counting agent.
Rather confusingly, Goldsmith’s rosettes are green. He is an environmentalist, but he has been criticised during the campaign for putting out a leaflet including a quote from Caroline Lucas, the Green party co-leader, complimenting his environmental record. The Greens decided not to put up a candidate here, as a “progressive alliance” move intended to help the Lib Dems, and Lucas has been backing Sarah Olney.
The Lib Dems reckon turnout will be relatively low. One source is talking about 40%. Byelections often have far lower turnouts, but the turnout in Richmond Park is generally quite high. It was 76% at the general election. In Witney, where the Lib Dems came second in the byelection in October, but with a 19-point swing from the Conservatives, the turnout was 46.7%.
The Lib Dems fear this means they have not been able to mobilise the anti-Brexit vote as successfully as they might have hoped. They say they had 500 activists in the constituency today working on getting out the vote.
It has been cold in London today. You would expect the weather to affect turnout and it turns out that someone has actually studied this. In More Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box, a fascinating collection of essays presenting political research in a readable format, Galina Borisyuk says the figures show that election turnout falls quite markedly in the winter. A study of more than 5,000 council byelections between 1983 and 1999 showed that turnout averaged 37% from April to June, but fell to 31% between November and January. This chart shows the trend, with December turnout (the lowest) as the base. The black line shows how turnout varied month by month from 1983 to 1999, and the grey line shows the same for 2000-2015 (when the pattern changed a bit because of the introduction of postal voting).
Some of the ballot boxes have already arrived and the ballot papers are being checked. There are a lot of Lib Dem and Labour activists here, but I can’t see so many Zac Goldsmith supporters. Of course, he does not have a party machine behind him this time.
Here is the scene at the count. This is from Sky’s Faisal Islam.
Counting begins at Richmond by election: libdems claim its close, turnout below 50%...Brexit by election or Heathrow? pic.twitter.com/sq28DLvK52
— Faisal Islam (@faisalislam) December 1, 2016
And here are the Richmond Park election results from 2015.
Zac Goldsmith (Conservative) - 34,404 (58.2%)
Robin Meltzer (Lib Dem) - 11,389 (19.3%)
Sachin Patel (Labour) - 7,296 (12.3%)
Andree Frieze (Green) - 3,548 (6%)
Sam Naz (Ukip) - 2,464 (4.2%)
Majority - 23,015 (38.9%)
Turnout - 59,101 (76.5%)
The candidates
Here is the full list of candidates.
Zac Goldsmith (independent): Son of the late Sir James Goldsmith, the billionaire financier who founded the Eurosceptic Referendum party, was known primarily as editor of the Ecologist magazine until he became Conservative MP for Richmond Park in 2010, one of several non-traditionalists lured to the party by David Cameron’s modernisation project. As an independent-minded backbencher he was best known for championing recall (legislation to allow voters to effectively sack their MP) and opposing a third runway at Heathrow. He triggered the byelection when the government said it would go ahead with the third runway, as he had promised he would. He is standing as an independent but the Conservative party has not put up a candidate against him, Tories have been campaigning for him and he has not ruled out a return to the party at some point in the future. He is generally well-regarded as a local MP but he voted to leave the EU, a handicap in a constituency where it is estimated that 72% of people voted remain.
Sarah Olney (Lib Dem): A local accountant, Olney only joined the Lib Dems only joined the party after the 2015 election, although she has always been a supporter. She is also opposed to the third runway at Heathrow but, in line with the Lib Dems’ key national strategy, she has sought to make this a byelection about Brexit. She is promising to vote against invoking article 50, oppose a hard Brexit and campaign for a second referendum - although this commitment is undermined by the revelation that in October she wrote a blog - now deleted - saying she was opposed to a second referendum.
Photograph: Kirsty O'Connor/PA
Christian Wolmar (Labour): A former journalist and railway historian, Wolmar sought the nomination to be Labour’s candidate for London mayor in 2016 but was one of the five people beaten by Sadiq Khan, coming second last. He was selected as the candidate in Richmond Park after Labour rejected suggestions it should stand aside to help the Lib Dems in the interests of a “progressive alliance”. Wolmar is opposed to Heathrow expansion and has said he would vote against article 50.
Dominic Francis Stockford (Christian peoples alliance)
David Powell
Howling Laud Hope (official monster raving loony party)
Maharaja Jammu and Kashmir (one love party)
Fiona Natasha Syms (independent)
It has taken a while but tonight the search for the most elusive creature in British politics - the Lib Dem revival - may finally be over.
Since 2010 the party has been on its knees (at best), and often flat out on the floor. But tonight the party thinks it has a good chance of gaining a seat in Richmond Park, the affluent and picturesque constituency in south west London where voters have been going to the polls because Zac Goldsmith decided to resign as a Conservative MP and stand again as an independent to protest against the government’s decision to back a third runway at Heathrow. Goldsmith had a majority of more than 20,000 in May last year and, even though this was a Lib Dem seat until 2010, a victory here for the Lib Dem candidate Sarah Olney would go down as one of the party’s great byelection triumphs.
Goldsmith wanted to make this a contest about Heathrow. But the Lib Dems have sought to turn this into Britain’s first Brexit byelection, exploiting Goldsmith’s key weakness - the fact that he backed leaving the EU even though his constituents were strongly in favour of staying. That culminated in Nick Clegg, the former Lib Dem leader, claiming last week that a win for his party here could stop a hard Brexit.
In an unusual move the Lib Dems put out canvassing figures earlier this week suggesting that they are on course to beat Goldsmith by 47 points to 46 points. A senior figure in the party told me a moment ago that it’s too close to call (they always say that), but others in the party are briefing a more positive message.
Lib Dems getting increasingly confident they may just have done it in Richmond Park. Tories quite gloomy. We'll find out soon enough.
— Kevin Schofield (@PolhomeEditor) December 1, 2016
The polls closed at 10pm and I’m at the count, at the sports hall at Richmond upon Thames College. The council has been saying we might not get the result until 4am, although other people here think it will come earlier. I will be here until we get a result, covering all the developments.
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