The old adage in the NFL is that you don’t judge a draft class until three or four years down the road. Generally, I agree with that point of view.
But there are exceptions. Take the quarterback draft class of 2018. Two years into it, you can look at the five quarterbacks taken in the first round and make some firm judgments. Overall, teams got it wrong.
It turns out the best quarterback from that draft was the fifth one taken and the last player taken in the first round. That’s Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. The first quarterback – and first overall pick – was Baker Mayfield by the Cleveland Browns. He hasn’t turned out to be what people thought he would.
Think the Browns would take Jackson with the first pick if they had the chance to do it all over again? Of course they would. Hindsight is 20/20 and the entire order of 2018 quarterbacks probably would be different if teams could do that draft over again.
With the help of an NFC scout who spoke on the condition of anonymity, let’s review the thinking on each of the five first-round quarterbacks from 2018 — both when they came into the league, and how they’re viewed after two seasons.
Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
Mayfield was the No. 1 overall selection out of Oklahoma. Despite the fact that some viewed Mayfield’s height (6-foot-1) and demeanor as potential problems, he was the consensus top pick.
“I was at one of his practices and I wasn’t all that impressed with him,’’ the scout said. “Yeah, he can throw the ball. But he has an outspoken vibe. Everybody else was in pads, but he was running around in sweats with a sweat band on his head. He reminded me of Jim McMahon and not a guy you would take at No. 1.’’
Mayfield looked like a No. 1 pick at times as a rookie, completing 63.8% of his passes and setting an NFL rookie record with 27 touchdown passes. Mayfield was intercepted 14 times as a rookie.
But Mayfield regressed in 2019 despite the arrival of receiver Odell Beckham Jr. He completed only 59.4% of his passes with 22 touchdowns and 21 interceptions.
“He’s just really inconsistent,’’ the scout said. “His height was a big factor this year. They had protection problems. When you’re shorter and you have protection problems, it’s tough to get the ball out. Not everybody is Drew Brees or Russell Wilson. I’m also real curious to see how the new coach handles his personality.’’
Sam Darnold, New York Jets
Darnold was taken third overall by the Jets out of USC.
“He was streaky in college,’’ the scout said. “At times, he looked like the best quarterback out there. Other times, he didn’t look good at all. The thing that stood out to me is how big he is in person (Darnold is listed as 6-3 and 225). He’s a big guy, but he moves pretty well.’’
Darnold’s career has been hampered by injuries and illness. He’s missed six games in his first two years and hasn’t hit his potential. He’s completed 59.9% of his passes for 5,889 yards with 36 touchdowns and 28 interceptions.
“His arm stands out,’’ the scout said. “He needs to be more consistent, but he’ll succeed. He hasn’t had a good team around him. Once they fill those needs, he will succeed.’’
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Coming out of a relatively small college program (Wyoming), Allen surprised many when he was taken No. 7 overall by Buffalo.
“I wasn’t surprised at all,’’ the scout said. “Yeah, you’re always concerned about the level of competition. But his traits stood out so much. He has such a big arm and his running ability was really evident. He was the whole team in college.’’
Allen has worked out well in Buffalo. He blossomed in 2019, leading the Bills to the playoffs. He threw for 20 touchdowns with only nine interceptions. He also rushed for 510 yards and nine touchdowns.
“Of all the quarterbacks in that draft, he ended up with the best marriage to a team,’’ the scout said. “Think about it for a minute. We’re talking about Buffalo. Josh is a cold-weather guy and he’s gritty. That’s what Buffalo is all about. He’s going to just keep getting better because he’s in the perfect environment.’’
Josh Rosen, Arizona Cardinals/Miami Dolphins
Rosen was taken No. 10 overall by the Cardinals out of UCLA. In 14 games as a rookie, he struggled mightily. Rosen completed 55.2% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
“The thing is he had the best mechanics in that draft,’’ the scout said. “But I wasn’t a big fan. There were a ton of negatives about his personality and leadership. He’s not focused like a quarterback should be. The intangibles just are not there.’’
The Cardinals agreed with that assessment after just one season. They drafted Kyler Murray No. 1 overall in 2019 and traded Rosen to the Dolphins. There were no miracles in Miami. Rosen spent most of the season behind veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick. In limited action, Rosen threw for one touchdown and five interceptions. His career now is at an obvious crossroads.
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens traded with Philadelphia to take Jackson at No. 32 – the final pick of the third round. At the time, many were suggesting the Louisville product move to wide receiver or running back in the NFL. But the Ravens viewed him as a quarterback.
“He was obviously fast and the big-play capability was evident,’’ the scout said. “But he was inaccurate. Even at his pro day, where there is no pass rush and no defensive backs, he was inaccurate.’’
Jackson has turned out to be one heck of a quarterback and the best of the 2018 class. As a rookie, he showed enough to convince the Ravens to part with veteran Joe Flacco. In 2019, Jackson exploded. He threw for a league-leading 36 touchdowns with just six interceptions, and also ran for 1,206 yards — a single-season record for a quarterback — and seven touchdowns.
“Give him tons of credit for working so hard to become an accurate passer,’’ the scout said. “He really worked to get better. But also give (Baltimore offensive coordinator) Greg Roman a ton of credit for making him more accurate and putting him into plays where he can succeed. It’s ironic because coming into the draft nobody, except the Ravens, wanted Jackson. Now, anybody would gladly take him.’’
Pat Yasinskas has covered the NFL since 1993. He has worked for The Tampa Tribune, The Charlotte Observer and ESPN.com and writes for numerous national magazines and websites. He also has served as a voter for the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
