Nine of the ten local authorities that have experienced the largest drops in primary school pupil numbers are in London, analysis has found.
Findings from the Education Policy Institute (EPI) projected that the capital is expected to continue to see steeper declines than the rest of the country for the next five years.
Researchers said policymakers must adopt strategies to adapt funding and school provision to cope with falling numbers, as lower numbers threaten the viability of schools.
In order, the 10 local authority areas with the largest falls in primary pupil numbers over the last five years are Westminster, Lambeth, Southwark, Hackney, Camden, Hammersmith and Fulham, Islington, Merton, Wandsworth, and Redcar and Cleveland.
Westminster saw a nearly 16 per cent fall in primary pupil numbers from 2020/21 to 2024/25.
In Southwark, figures have fallen by more than 12 per cent in five years, and the number of primary schools has dropped by six.
“Schools with falling pupil numbers face increasing financial pressures, which can ultimately threaten their long-term viability,” said Jon Andrews, head of analysis and director for school system and performance at the EPI.
“There is frequent speculation about the causes of London’s falling primary school enrolments, with much of the focus on declining birth rates. While that is undoubtedly a key factor, our analysis shows that the trend also reflects broader shifts in where and how young families are choosing to live.
“With primary enrolments expected to continue declining, it is essential that policymakers and admissions authorities adopt data-driven strategies to adapt school provision and funding to a changing educational landscape.”
There are expected to be 400,000 fewer pupils at schools in England by the end of the decade than today, and primary pupil numbers have already dropped by 150,000 since 2019, the EPI said.
Schools are funded on a per-pupil basis, which means falling rolls are a big concern for as big declines are associated with school closures.
An increasing number of pupils are leaving London, researchers found. Around 17 per cent of primary pupils in reception in 2012/13 had left the city by Year 6, increasing to 20 per cent for pupils who started reception in 2017/18.
While falling birth rates play a key role, London primary pupils are most likely to either move within the city or leave the state education system, findings show. Local authorities in the East of England and the South East record the largest influxes of pupils from London.
Co-author and EPI researcher Lily Wielar said the analysis shows falling pupil numbers cannot be explained by declining birth rates alone.
“Wider factors – such as the cost of living, housing pressures, and regional differences in school provision and quality – are also likely to be shaping where families live and the choices they make,” she added.
Over the next five years, Islington, Lambeth and Southwark are expected to experience the largest declines in pupil numbers from 14 per cent to 20 per cent.
Paul Whiteman, general secretary at the school leaders’ union NAHT, said small schools are particularly being affected by falling pupil numbers.
“Rather than reducing funding or closing schools, we would urge the Government to continue to invest and support local authorities to maintain staffing and resources,” he added.
“This could build capacity for greater [special educational needs and disabilities] inclusion, and enable schools to offer smaller classes and more targeted help, as well as giving an opportunity to reduce problematic levels of workload for school staff.”
A population bulge in England has been moving into secondary schools, but the Department for Education said in July that it expected pupil numbers to peak in 2026/27.
Earlier this year, a former education secretary called for school funding to no longer be judged on a per-pupil basis because of falling rolls.
Conservative MP Damian Hinds said the decline in the number of children in schools meant the per-pupil basis was no longer a good reflection of whether funding was increasing or decreasing.
