Government experts have warned that the return of children to schools after the summer holidays is likely to trigger an 'exponential' rise in coronavirus infections.
The removal of many Covid restriction measures in schools next month will make youngsters more susceptible to infection, according to the SPI-M-O - the government’s committee on pandemic modelling.
The group has warned ministers to plan accordingly for potential coronavirus outbreaks in schools as they re-open across England, according to the Independent
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It comes as Sage member and director of the Wellcome Trust, Sir Jeremy Farrar, warned there will be a surge in infections this winter.
He said: "Vaccines have amazingly weakened the link between infections and illness and hospitalisations, but not broken it. No one wants to reimpose restrictions but we face a challenging winter.
"I do believe we need an informed public debate on the options through 2021 and 2022.
"The infection is not going away, we have incredible tools (tests, treatment, vaccines). No one wants restrictions re-imposed, but we will have to accept some illness, hospitalisations and deaths.”
The Office for National Statistic's (ONS) latest infection survey shows infection rates are increasing across all four parts of the UK in the week ending August 30. One in 70 people in England would now likely test positive for the virus, according to the data.
The SPI-M-O group wrote a paper on August 11, warning of the risks of Covid-19 infection among children.
It reads: "Schools will represent a high proportion of remaining susceptible individuals and it is highly likely that exponential increases will be seen in school-attending age groups after schools open.
"Vaccination will also have made almost no difference in these population groups over the summer holidays. When schools reopen, the mitigations in place to limit transmission within schools will be much reduced compared to the spring and summer terms.
"Additionally, the prevalence of infection in the community and school-age groups will be higher than in May 2021.”
While the group developed a Covid-19 model based on school infection, it did not account for the transmission of Covid-19 within communities outside schools.
It admits that it could 'underestimate within-school transmission on reopening', since the assumption was made that school bubbles no longer exist.
The paper also warned that it didn't account for any increase in infections as a result of people in school not wearing masks or other restrictive measures.
Overall, infection data suggest that children have a very low risk of serious illness from Covid-19 infection, with some research estimating a one-in-50,000 chance of a child being admitted to intensive care.
They can still suffer longer-term consequences of infection.
Earlier this month the ONS estimated 34,000 children in the UK were suffering from long-term consequences of Covid-19 infection.
The SPI-M-O model took into account immunity levels of up to 70 per cent, showing each one led to a smaller rise in infections.
At the highest level of immunity the virus reproduction value (R-rate) remains below one, meaning infections won’t rise.
Levels of immunity below 70 per cent in the modelling all lead to a surge of infections and outbreaks in schools.
The paper concluded: “While this analysis focuses on within-school transmission, schools are also inevitably linked to any community epidemic.
"Within SPI-M-O, there is no consensus whether schools are major or effective drivers of community transmission or merely good indicators of it.
“It is highly likely that high prevalence will be seen within schools by the end of September 2021. This may reflect either community or within-school transmission, and the role of schools in driving wider transmission remains uncertain.
"Regardless of this, it would be sensible for the government to plan for this eventuality.”
