A retired detective claims police are right to focus on the theory that missing mum Nicola Bulley fell in the river based on three key factors.
The mum-of-two disappeared on January 27 while walking her dog along the River Weir in of small village of St Michaels on Wyre in Lancashire. Police launched a huge search operation, with specialist diving teams, search dogs, drones and boats all brought in to help find the 45-year-old mortgage adviser.
Earlier this week, the search extended to Morecambe Bay, with officers seen on a board searching under Shard Bridge - seven miles from Nicola's last known location. Police have said their "main working hypothesis" is that she fell in a river, but insist they are keeping an open mind, the Mirror reports.
Julie Mackay, a retired Detective Superintendent who previously solved a 32-year-old murder, told the Mirror that she supports the river hypothesis based on three factors:
- No new information come to light to give them a reason to think otherwise.
- Based on the time she disappeared, it is unlikely to be criminal.
- The winter conditions would make it harder to locate a body in the river.
She said: "I still believe she's gone in that river - today when you look at the last two weeks and review it, nothing has changed."
The former Det Supt added that even though Nicola hasn't been found in the area surrounding the potential entry point near the bench, it doesn't mean she's not there. Extensive searches by police and underwater forensic expert Peter Faulding have so far found no traces of Nicola.
When asked about why she thinks this is despite searches, Julie said: "I think it is good to always have other specialists to try and find new leads or try and support the work that has been done.
"They too are 100 per cent that she is not in that area in the river if she has gone in by the bend. The other bit of speculation is how hard it is to travel over that Wyre.
"It's not as unusual as you think. If she's then sadly gone over that Wyre it becomes tidal and then the possibility that she's gone out to sea is still quite possible. On the face of it, I still agree with the police."
Julie added that she still doesn't believe it was a criminal act, despite potential CCTV blind spots where Nicola could have left the area. She said: "I don't think it criminal there would have been a clue along the way.
"This is when you are weighing up the pros and cons of third-party involvement. However, it's good that it is highlighted and that police continue to explore every opportunity."
Ms Mackay told the Mirror previously that, based on her experience working along the Somerset coast, people aren't always immediately found in waters. Another reason that Julie gives for Nicola having not been found in the river yet is the winter clothes she was wearing at the time, which would have weighed her down.
Nicola was last seen wearing a long black gilet jacket with a hood, black jeans and olive-green ankle wellies. Ms Mackay said: "Generally wearing winter clothes makes it more difficult to get out it will weigh you down.
"The cold water shock alone will knock you sideways even for an experienced swimmer. That cold water shock very quickly disorientates you and with winter clothes it's heavy and panic will set in.
"And once you start losing control it can be quite difficult to regain it."
When asked why no one had seen her in the river, she added: "I don't think it is unusual no one saw her in the river because there is a lot of debris, logs and rubbish. People don't expect to see something they can't identify.
"It's also how the body operates in the water, it sinks until decomposition sets in and because it's so cold it may be a bit longer."
It comes after Nicola's partner Paul Ansell said he didn't believe Nicola is in the river and feared someone else was involved in her disappearance. Speaking to Dan Walker on Channel 5, he said: "Extensive searching, as you’re probably aware, has gone on in that river.
"The fact that the divers and underwater rescue team and all that were in that river on the day, and thankfully found absolutely nothing, in the part where you would have to presume is her last known location.
"Personally, I am 100 per cent convinced it’s not the river, that’s my opinion."
He added: "People don't just vanish into thin air. It's absolutely impossible. So something has happened.
"Whatever has happened, in my eyes, has to be somebody who knows the local area. You would only know that area, it's a local area."
He added: "You see the same faces every single day, and on the very odd occasion when you see somebody that you know, you don't know. They stand out like a sore thumb."
Anyone with information that could help investigators is urged to contact Lancashire Police on 101 quoting log 0565 of January 30th. For immediate sightings please call 999.
Julie Mackay is the author of To Hunt a Killer: How I Brought Melanie Road's Murderer to Justice.
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