Manchester, Salford, Trafford and Tameside could all emerge as coronavirus hotspots over the next fortnight, according to researchers.
The four Greater Manchester boroughs - which are all currently on ‘amber’ alert - are said to have a 50 to 75 per cent chance of going ‘red’ by September 20.
The predictions come from an interactive map created by researchers at Imperial College London.
It shows the areas where cases are rising and predicts whether they could become the next hotspots.
Analysts hope the device will encourage local leaders to take action before it is too late.
The probability of Greater Manchester areas becoming hotspots is 64 per cent for Tameside, 54 per cent for Salford and Trafford and 53 per cent for Manchester for the week ending September 20.
It also shows that Oldham is unlikely to remain a hotspot.
But Bolton is likely to remain a hotspot for weeks, with a probability of 99 per cent.
It may soon be joined by Rossendale, according to the map, which says there is a 92 per cent probability of the Lancashire borough becoming a hotspot.
A local authority is considered a hotspot if weekly reported cases per 100,000 population exceed 50.
Researchers have given probabilities based on a model which assumes a situation in which no change in interventions, such as local lockdowns, occur.
The map uses figures on daily and weekly reported deaths and mathematical modelling to calculate probabilities.
It also gives estimates on whether cases are likely to increase or decrease, and the probability of the R number being greater than one.
If it is higher than one it indicates an outbreak is out of control and cases will continue to increase.
The predictions are based on the current government measures to curb the spread of coronavirus, and each local authority is treated independently of its neighbours in the modelling.
An increase in cases in a local authority can be due to a rise in testing, which the model does not account for, the researchers said.
It also does not take demographic factors into consideration.
Elsewhere in the country, The Wirral, Leeds, Middlesbrough and Caerphilly are also amongst places that could become hotspots.
Lead researcher Professor Axel Gandy, from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial, said: “The model allows us to project where local hotspots of COVID-19 are likely to develop in England and Wales based on the trends that we’re seeing in those areas.
“COVID-19 is, unfortunately, very much still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to bring hotspots under control.”
Dr Swapnil Mishra, from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, said: “We provide weekly predictions of the evolution of COVID-19 at the local authority level in England and Wales.
“Our model helps to identify hotspots – probable local areas of concern. We hope that our estimates will enable swift action at the local level to control the spread of the epidemic.”
