The dismantling of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) has already contributed to an estimated 700,000 deaths worldwide, according to former USAID official Atul Gawande, who cited multiple academic studies warning that the toll could eventually reach into the millions if funding is not restored.
Speaking to The New Yorker, Gawande said the estimate is based on separate analyses from Boston University researchers and a study published in The Lancet, which found that USAID programs had saved roughly 92 million lives over the past two decades before projecting the impact of the agency's dismantling.
Rep. Ro Khanna has also cited the research, which estimates that as many as 4.5 million children could die by the end of 2030 if current funding levels persist.
Gawande told The New Yorker that the consequences are already visible across humanitarian and public health programs. He pointed to World Health Organization estimates showing that emergency health services reached more than 80 million people in 2024 but more than 50 million fewer in 2025.
The disruption has affected programs addressing severe malnutrition, maternal care, HIV, tuberculosis and vaccinations. In South Sudan, Gawande said local records from seven districts showed child deaths rising from 42 over two years to 214 after USAID-supported clinics closed.
The estimates come as Elon Musk continues to reject claims that the Department of Government Efficiency's cuts caused deaths. According to The Guardian, Musk has argued critics "cannot cite a single name of someone who died," while public health experts say the effects are already being documented.
Jeremy Konyndyk, former head of USAID's Ebola response, told the site that "people are absolutely dying," adding that weakened surveillance also left countries less prepared to detect outbreaks such as the recent Ebola cases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Additional evidence of the broader humanitarian impact emerged this week in a UN Women report covered by Al Jazeera. The report found that at least one million women and girls have lost access to life-saving support over the past 18 months because of global aid cuts. It also found that 40% of women's organizations surveyed across 52 countries could shut down within a year due to funding shortfalls, while 90% said they can no longer meet growing demand for services.
While Gawande acknowledged that the 700,000 figure is based on projections and that complete mortality data may take years to emerge, he argued the broader trend is already clear. "It's already public man-made death," he said, warning that without a reversal in policy, "it's going to be millions of deaths."
