The federal government’s agricultural research body, Abares, has sought to debunk fears that Australia could run out of basic foodstuffs such as rice and wheat, though it says it is possible there could be temporary disruptions to supply chains due to Covid-19.
An Abares paper released overnight on Thursday says fears of feed shortages are misplaced and that dwindling stocks of rice, pasta and flour on supermarket shelves are due to consumers panic buying and not due to any fundamental shortages.
The head of Southern Riverina Irrigators, Chris Brooks, has claimed that Australia risks running out of rice and wheat as a result of the pandemic and that, at least on the east coast of Australia, there is not enough of these grains being produced to meet supply.
These concerns have been picked up by Nines’ 60 Minutes, and echoed by the NSW deputy premier, John Barilaro, in recent days.
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But Abares says that such fears are “misplaced” and that, although Australia does import rice to meet consumers’ tastes for different varieties, it also exports 52% of local rice, based on three-year averages of production.
“We remain a net exporter of food. We export 70% of our beef and veal, 71% of our wheat, and 41% of our dairy products,” the agriculture minister, David Littleproud, said as he released the report.
He said ensuring food security was one of the government’s top priorities and part of the $320bn response.
“We have implemented strategies that include maintaining agriculture’s service and supply lines, extending work visas and providing freight support,” he said.
Only 11 cents in every dollar is spent on imported food in Australia, and that is usually because of consumer tastes for variety or out-of-season produce. Some categories such as seafood, frozen vegetables and processed pork have higher levels of imports.
The Abares report includes detailed breakdowns of major foodstuffs. It says Australia exports 86% of the sugar it produces; 75% of the beef produced, 71% of wheat and 40% of dairy.
The numbers were based on average production for the three years 2015-6 to 2017-18 and some of these crops have been significantly reduced during the drought.
But Abares said the outlook for rainfall for the coming season was positive. This should see production of wheat, which is generally fed by rainfall rather than irrigated, bounce back.
The picture for rice has been complicated by high prices for water in the Murray-Darling Basin, which has seen rice farmers in the Riverina plant their smallest crops since the Millennium drought.
The February Abares report forecast just 54,000 tonnes would be produced in 2020. This is below Abare’s estimate of domestic consumption of rice of around 300,000 tonnes in its latest report.
This suggests that there will be reliance on imports in 2020.
Some rice growers and dairy farmers sold their high security water rights during government buybacks which were part of the plan to reduce the overall amount of water extracted from the river system. During the drought less secure water entitlements were given a zero or small allocation, which left farmers who relied on this sort of water unable to plant crops.
In contrast, farmers growing high-value crops such as almonds or with permanent plantings such as grapes, further down the Murray river, have been prepared to pay high prices for water, which has seen prices skyrocket.
Abares noted that some rice growers wanted governments to intervene in the water market to bolster commodities such as rice.
“All water in the Murray-Darling Basin is allocated and so government intervention to provide additional water to a particular sector or producer would need to take water from some other use, such as reserves held to provide future town water supply or environmental outcomes,” Abares said.
The issue of water is particularly fraught in the Goulburn and Murray valleys, where farmers have been hurt by low prices for dairy and high prices for water. The National party has come under electoral pressure from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party over the impact of rising water prices on farmers.
Water ministers have asked for their meeting with the federal water minister, Keith Pitt, to be brought forward and there is likely to be renewed pressure for the federal government to relax its targets under the Murray-Darling Basin plan for further water recovery.
These is also likely to be renewed calls for the Environmental Water Holder to make water held for environmental purposes in the Hume and Dartmouth dams available for other uses.
During the drought, the federal government intervened to make water available to grow fodder, but there will be strong resistance to intervening on behalf of one crop.
Abares said there was still some concerns about supply chain disruptions – for instance, there was some concern there might not be enough refrigerated containers to export food in due to Covid-19-related disruptions to international trade.
It also said there was a risk of labour shortages.
Abares concluded that the risks to food security were far greater for poorer nations, because prices could rise due to the uncertainties of supply.
Despite the coronavirus, cargo is continuing to arrive and depart from ports around Australia, albeit with rules now governing the disembarkation of crew from cargo ships.
Crew on international cargo ships are exempt from the mandatory self-isolation requirement that applies to arriving passengers but are required to self-isolate on the vessel or in their accommodation. Time at sea counts toward the self-isolation period.
