Less a red wave than a blue wall.
There are still many votes to count in the midterms but elections are all about expectations and, as of 2am ET on Wednesday, Democrats were walking tall and Republicans were feeling flat.
It had the makings of the most surprising outcome at the polls since Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The prevailing narrative in recent weeks had been about the Republican momentum as voters seemed to prioritise the economy and inflation over abortion rights and the death of democracy.
This led to giddy speculation that the Democratic senator Maggie Hassan might be in trouble in New Hampshire or the Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, said to be “tone deaf” on crime, could be upset in New York.
Both cruised to victory and instead the surprise of the night could be the possible defeat of Lauren Boebert, an extremist Republican congresswoman in Colorado.
Control of both the House of Representatives and Senate remained poised on a knife-edge with the Democrat John Fetterman having beaten the Republican Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate race.
This is not the scenario Republican leaders and strategists had talked themselves into taking for granted. “Definitely not a Republican wave, that’s for darn sure,” conceded Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina on NBC News.
However, Republicans did achieve striking victories in Florida and Ohio, confirming that neither is the perennial swing state that it used to be. Brian Kemp, the governor of Georgia, and Greg Abbott, the governor of Texas, enjoyed crushing but unsurprising wins over progressive stars Stacey Abrams and Beto O’Rourke respectively.
Republicans, indeed, could still win control of the House and Senate. But it will not be by the margins of which they dreamed. By most metrics – including their own reckless predictions – they were disappointing and underperforming.
Take the state governor elections, where historically Democrats have struggled but this time a new generation stepped in. Maura Healey won in Massachusetts, Wes Moore won in Maryland and Josh Shapiro beat the election denier Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania.
An early, tentative conclusion is that the supreme court’s decision in June to overturn the constitutional right to abortion really was a gamechanger, energising female voters and the Democratic base. Conventional wisdom had suggested that reproductive rights had faded as an issue in recent months. Conventional wisdom might have been wrong: surprise!
Another provisional interpretation is that Joe Biden has defied the odds again. Just some years ago he was written off as a 2020 presidential candidate after a poor showing in Iowa and New Hampshire only to rally and win the party nomination.
Now the president looks set to best his Democratic predecessors Bill Clinton, who lost 54 House seats in his first term in 1994, and Barack Obama, who lost 63 seats in his first term in 2010. With the congresswomen Abigail Spanberger and Jennifer Wexton having survived in Virginia, it seems there will be no “shellacking” this time.
For another former president, however, there is little cause for joy. Trump was already the first president since Herbert Hoover in 1932 to lose re-election, the House and the Senate. Now his curse has condemned Republicans to another below-par showing when history and economic dissatisfaction were on their side.
Trump used to love saying: “We’re going to win so much, you’re going to be so sick and tired of winning.” Republicans, surely, are now sick and tired of losing. But maybe not sick and tired enough to deny Trump one last chance in 2024.
