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The Guardian - US
The Guardian - US
World
Maanvi Singh in California (now) and Joan E Greve in Washington (earlier)

Republicans play down expectations in North Carolina House race – as it happened

Dan Bishop, Republican candidate in the special election for North Carolina’s ninth congressional district, speaks to the media in Indian Trail, North Carolina, on Tuesday.
Dan Bishop, Republican candidate in the special election for North Carolina’s ninth congressional district, speaks to the media in Indian Trail, North Carolina, on Tuesday. Photograph: Jonathan Drake/Reuters

Summary

We’re ending the liveblog for now, as we await the results of North Carolina’s ninth district election.

With just about half the votes counted, democrat Dan McCready is and republican Dan Bishop are neck and neck, each with just under 50% of the votes.

Look for The Guardian’s coverage of the winner, once all the votes are tallied.

In the meantime, here’s a recap of today’s political news:

That’s it from me on this very eventful Tuesday, brought to you by Trump’s habit of firing senior officials by tweet. My west coast colleague, Maanvi Singh, will take over the blog for the next few hours.

Here’s where the day stands so far:

  • In case you missed the roughly 10,000 headlines: Trump fired John Bolton just days after reports emerged that the national security adviser had opposed the president’s controversial plan to hold secret talks with the Taliban at Camp David.
  • But, but, but: Bolton claimed he had actually offered his resignation to Trump the day before but that the president said they would return to the issue later. Trump asserted he asked for Bolton’s resignation last night and received it this morning.
  • Bolton’s deputy, Charlie Kupperman, is taking over as acting national security advisor while the White House searches for a permanent replacement.
  • Some Democrats bemoaned the “instability” of Trump throwing aside a third national security adviser since taking office, but most just wished the hawkish Bolton “good riddance”.
  • Congressional Democrats and Republicans sparred over gun policy as Mitch McConnell reiterated he would not bring a bill to the Senate floor unless it had Trump’s blessing.

Republican Greg Murphy wins in North Carolina

Murphy, a physician, decisively defeated his democratic opponent Allen Thomas and will succeed the late GOP Rep. Walter Jones Jr.

With more than half of the votes counted, Murphy won by nearly 60%. This was expected — North Carolina’s third district leans heavily republican.

The more competitive election in the state’s ninth district is still too close to call.

Updated

The election between McCready and Dan Bishop in North Carolina’s Ninth District isn’t the only race going on in the state.

Votes are also being tallied up in the North Carolina’s Third, where the representative seat was left open after congressman Walter B. Jones Jr. died in February. Republican Greg Murphy is running against democrat Allen Thomas, the Former of Greenville. The district leans heavily republican and Murphy is leading as the results trickle in.

Dan McCready outside a polling station in Charlotte, North Carolina
Dan McCready outside a polling station in Charlotte, North Carolina
 Photograph: Jonathan Drake/Reuters

The fact that McCready, a Democrat, narrowly lost in 2018 (but just 905 votes) was a surprise in itself.

The district has leaned heavily Republican in the past. Trump won the district by 12 points 2016, and Mitt Romney running back 2012 against Barak Obama, won by 12 points as well.

The polls have closed in North Carolina

The polls have closed, though we’re still awaiting the results of the fiercely contested election.

Democrat Dan McCready is running a close race against Republican Dan Bishop.

The special election is the culmination of a months-long political scandal. McCready narrowly lost in 2018, against republic Mark Harris. But state officials voided the results and order a new election after evidence emerged that Harris’s campaign had funded a “ballot harvesting.”

A political operative working for Harris’ was charged with paying people that he recruited $125 for every 50 mail-in ballots they collected and turned into him.

Updated

Ultra rightwing Freedom Caucus picks new chair

The House Freedom Caucus, a group of far-right lawmakers within Congress, has elected a new chairman: Andy Biggs of Arizona.

Biggs will take the place of the current chair, North Carolina’s Mark Meadows starting October 1.

The Caucus often butt heads with Republican leadership, looking to push the party farther right. But the group’s influence has waned since democrats took control of the house.

Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar had a chance to spar a bit ahead of Thursday’s Democratic primary debate...

... when they were seated next to each other on a flight.

Trump administration expands fishing and hunting in wildlife refuges

Hunters and anglers can now shoot and cast their rods on federally protected land that serves as critical habitat waterfowl and other birds, in the administration’s latest effort to open up protected lands to recreation as well as industry — including oil and gas drilling.

Hunting and fishing will now be allowed for the first time at seven national wildlife refuges, and restrictions will be reduced at 70 others.

More context from the AP:

Conservationists said the changes went into effect without adequate environmental review.

“While the Trump policy retains federal ownership, it basically eviscerates federal management,” said Jeff Ruch of Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility. “The states end up managing federal land with federal dollars but following state laws. That’s a sea change from federal management for conservation and biodiversity rather than promoting hunting.”

One of the big concerns is that state and federal officials don’t appear to have a monitoring system to see what effect the changes might have, not only on game species but those that aren’t hunted, Ruch said.

The Trump administration is ordering a “sweeping crackdown” on homelessness in California, The Washington Post reports.

Administration officials have been discussing using federal funds and resources to get homeless people off the streets of Los Angeles and into government facilities, as part of a broader effort to target California, Baltimore, Chicago and other cities and states that Trump believes suffer poverty and crime due to failed Democratic leadership:

But it is unclear how they could accomplish this and what legal authority they would use. It is also unclear whether the state’s Democratic politicians would cooperate with Trump, who has sought to embarrass them over the homelessness crisis with repeated attacks on their competency. ...

Top officials representing the White House and Department of Housing and Urban Development arrived in California this week for a round of meetings. A particular focus has been the “skid row” section of Los Angeles, officials said. The president is directly involved with the initiative, officials said, and has asked for updates.

Among the ideas under consideration is razing existing tent camps for the homeless, creating new temporary facilities, or refurbishing existing government facilities, two officials said. The officials spoke on the condition of anonymity because the planning hasn’t been publicly revealed. The changes would attempt to give the federal government a larger role in supervising housing and health care for residents.

That’s it from me on this very eventful Tuesday, brought to you by Trump’s habit of firing senior officials by tweet. My west coast colleague, Maanvi Singh, will take over the blog for the next few hours.

Here’s where the day stands so far:

  • In case you missed the roughly 10,000 headlines: Trump fired John Bolton just days after reports emerged that the national security adviser had opposed the president’s controversial plan to hold secret talks with the Taliban at Camp David.
  • But, but, but: Bolton claimed he had actually offered his resignation to Trump the day before but that the president said they would return to the issue later. Trump asserted he asked for Bolton’s resignation last night and received it this morning.
  • Bolton’s deputy, Charlie Kupperman, is taking over as acting national security adviser while the White House searches for a permanent replacement.
  • Some Democrats bemoaned the “instability” of Trump throwing aside a third national security adviser since taking office, but most just wished the hawkish Bolton “good riddance”.
  • But there was important other news being made today. Voting is underway in North Carolina’s ninth congressional district, where a special election is being read for signs of Trump’s resiliency in areas he carried in 2016. Congressional Republicans downplayed expectations of a win this afternoon.
  • Congressional Democrats and Republicans sparred over gun policy as Mitch McConnell reiterated he would not bring a bill to the Senate floor unless it had Trump’s blessing.

Maanvi will have more on the news of the day, so stay tuned.

Updated

Some names are already being floated as possible replacements for Bolton as national security adviser. His deputy, Charlie Kupperman, has currently assumed the role on an acting basis.

Bloomberg News reports:

Kupperman is a Bolton confidant who has counseled the former national security adviser for more than 30 years, Bolton has said. Grisham said it was ‘too soon to say’ whether Bolton’s closest National Security Council aides would remain in their jobs.

Possible Bolton replacements discussed by Trump associates include Robert O’Brien, who is the president’s envoy for hostage affairs, and Brian Hook, [secretary of state Mike] Pompeo’s senior policy adviser.

6 in 10 Americans don't think Trump deserves re-election, poll says

CNN has just released a poll showing Trump’s approval rating has hit 39 percent, its lowest point in the network’s polling since January. Arguably more worrisome for the president is that 6 in 10 Americans don’t believe he deserves re-election.

The results corroborate the Washington Post/ABC News poll released this morning, which showed the president’s approval rating at 38 percent. (Trump lashed out against those results in a pair of morning tweets, so CNN can expect the same.)

CNN has more on the results:

Overall, the poll paints a picture of a President who has done little to improve negative impressions of him or his work during his time in office. Across several questions asked early in Trump’s time in office and asked again now, the poll finds little positive change and deep partisan polarization.

The 60% who say the President does not deserve to be reelected is similar to the 63% who felt that way in November 2017. That outpaces his most recent predecessors at a similar stage in their presidencies. In October 2003, a CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll found that 52% of Americans thought George W. Bush did deserve reelection, and Gallup’s polling in 2011 found the share saying Barack Obama did not deserve to be reelected stood in the low 50s.

Trump’s approval rating is also historically low for presidents seeking re-election, a CNN reporter noted. The only president who had a lower approval rating a year before his second election was Jimmy Carter ... who lost to Ronald Reagan.

Republicans attempt to stifle expectations about North Carolina congressional race

There is indeed still a special congressional race being held today in North Carolina, just in case you forget amid the Trump personnel turmoil.

Republicans are appearing less and less confident that their candidate, Dan Bishop, can pull off a win in the traditionally red Ninth District.

Trump carried the district by 12 points back in 2016, but a senior House Republican told reporters today that it was a “swing district.”

A loss would not only be embarrassing for Republicans, who have dumped $20 million into the race, but potentially ominous as well. If the party can’t carry the Ninth District, which covers some of the suburbs outside Charlotte, it may have trouble in similar districts across the country – which could prove disastrous for 2020.

But, as a Republican strategist noted, the actual consequences of this race are quite minimal. It’s more a matter of controlling the dreaded “narrative.”

Democratic presidential candidates wish Bolton 'good riddance'

A handful of Democratic presidential candidates have offered the same message to the departing national security adviser: we won’t miss you.

Bolton’s nomination as national security adviser was widely criticized by Democrats when it was announced in March 2018, given the former UN ambassador’s support for using military force against adversaries like North Korea and Iran.

Those stances initially sat well with Trump, who once promised “fire and fury” against North Korea. But the president has more recently shifted that position after meeting with Kim Jong-un, calling the North Korean dictator “a great leader.”

Bolton was the wrong messenger for Trump’s shifting foreign policy as the president angles for re-election, the Guardian’s Julian Borger writes.

Donald Trump hired Bolton to break things, like the Obama administration legacy and the orthodox foreign policy establishment in general. Now, with the 2020 election coming, a downturn looming and a second presidential term in doubt, Trump is trying to build a foreign policy legacy of his own – or at least a reasonable impression of one.

For the president, that involves shaking hands with adversaries and announcing diplomatic breakthroughs with the likes of Tehran and the Taliban. Almost no one expected him to be able to make that hairpin pivot with someone as bellicose and determined as Bolton at his side.

Updated

Bolton's resignation letter is released

Bolton’s resignation letter has been obtained, and it is indeed (as previously reported) two sentences long.

It’s notable that the ousted national security adviser chose not to detail his policy differences with Trump in the letter, as former defense secretary Jim Mattis did when he resigned in December.

Bolton has said he was not fired and that he offered his resignation last night. But if that’s the case, one might expect a bit more ... elaboration in his resignation letter.

Then again, Bolton said Trump offered to discuss the issue further today. So the president’s tweet may still have caught the national security adviser off guard, particularly given that Bolton was supposed to participate in a White House briefing this afternoon.

Schumer: 'Shame on' McConnell for dismissing Democrats' gun proposals

News is coming out on multiple fronts as reactions and details continue to roll in about Trump’s firing of Bolton.

Most notably, congressional Democrats and Republicans continue to spar about potential gun legislation after last month’s mass shootings that left dozens dead.

Mitch McConnell said he was waiting on the White House to craft a bill Trump would sign, arguing everything else surrounding the gun debate was “theatrics.”

Those “theatrics” would appear to include the three gun bills House Democrats are currently attempting to advance. The background checks bill they passed months ago has never been brought up for a vote in the Senate, and Trump has said he would veto it.

Chuck Schumer denounced McConnell’s “theatrics” comment. “Shame on him,” the Senate minority leader said at his press conference.

Trump tells second national security adviser he misses him, report says

Rose-colored glasses are apparently quite powerful. Trump has reportedly been reaching out to the last national security adviser he unceremoniously ousted, H.R. McMaster, to say he misses him.

NBC News reports:

In phone calls to McMaster — the first of which took place last fall — Trump told his second national security adviser that he misses him, according to two people familiar with the conversations. It’s a sentiment the president has also expressed to White House aides, they said. Trump has solicited McMaster’s advice on various national security challenges, even asking McMaster who he should nominate to lead the Pentagon, they said.

Trump’s contacts with McMaster perhaps presaged his decision Tuesday to unceremoniously fire Bolton. They also marked a significant a remarkable shift for the president that is emblematic of how much Bolton fell out of favor since Trump welcomed him into the White House 17 months ago. At that time, Trump was barely speaking to McMaster and regularly did derogatory impressions of him in his absence, according to multiple current and former White House officials.

McConnell says White House working on Trump-approved gun bill

Trump has just finished speaking at the HBCU conference, but the blog is keeping its eye on press conferences on Capitol Hill.

Mitch McConnell would not specify what type of gun legislation he would support, deferring to the White House.

The Senate majority leader previously said he would not hold a vote on any gun proposal unless it had Trump’s endorsement, seemingly ruling out the background checks bill that has already passed the House. Trump has said he would veto that legislation.

Another three proposals that House Democrats are working to pass after last month’s mass shootings would likely also be dead on arrival in the Senate.

Trump appeared anxious to confront the eventual Democratic presidential nominee, saying he looked forward to touting his economic successes on the debate stage.

“Who’s going to beat these numbers?” Trump asked the crowd at the National Historically Black Colleges and Universities Week Conference after listing some unemployment statistics.

Trump dismisses recession concerns

Trump dismissed any sign of a looming recession while speaking at the National Historically Black Colleges and Universities Week Conference.

The president suggested warnings of a potential recession were being circulated by his critics to diminish his re-election chances. “They were hoping for a recession,” Trump said, adding that he expects the stock market to hit a new record in the near future.

A new poll released this morning showed 6 in 10 Americans believe a recession is likely within the next year.

Trump has taken the stage at the National Historically Black Colleges and Universities Week Conference and appears to (so far) be sticking to the teleprompter.

He has touted the importance of HBCUs and celebrated his education secretary, Betsy DeVos, as a champion for the institutions.

Trump is expected to soon start speaking at the National Historically Black Colleges and Universities Week Conference. The president was scheduled to take the podium at 2:15 p.m. E.T. but is apparently running behind.

Pompeo made a point during the White House press conference, which has now wrapped up, to emphasize he had policy disagreements with Bolton.

The secretary of state, who reportedly clashed with Bolton repeatedly in recent months, appeared (in the words of one reporter) “almost gleeful” as he discussed the national security adviser’s departure.

This widely shared photo of Pompeo and Mnuchin seemed a perfect encapsulation of their dynamic.

Steven Mnuchin dismissed any notion that Bolton’s departure signaled the national security team was a “mess.”

“That’s the most ridiculous question I’ve ever heard,” the treasury secretary said.

That being said, Trump has had three national security advisers since taking office, and Barack Obama had the same number over two terms. George W. Bush only had two over his eight years in office.

Pompeo on Bolton's firing: 'I'm never surprised'

Pompeo delivered a pretty iconic response when asked whether he was caught off-guard by Bolton’s firing. “I’m never surprised,” the secretary of state said.

Pompeo went on to scold the press, encouraging journalists not to focus on “palace intrigue.”

The recommendation seems odd given all the reporting about Pompeo and Bolton’s relationship, which had deteriorated to the point where the pair rarely spoke outside of formal meetings.

Pompeo boosts Trump's claim Bolton was fired

There it is! First question at the White House briefing with Mike Pompeo and Steven Mnuchin: did Bolton resign, or was he fired?

The secretary of state echoed Trump’s claim that he asked Bolton for his resignation last night and received it this morning. Pompeo added, “The president is entitled to the staff he wants.”

But Pompeo deflected when asked whether the argument over the planned Taliban peace talks was the impetus for Bolton’s departure.

Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, and Mike Pompeo, the secretary of state, have taken the podium at the White House.

The pair are currently speaking about a new executive order on counter-terrorism sanctions, and Mnuchin said they would then take a few questions.

It seems unlikely that those questions will center on counter-terrorism sanctions, given that the now-fired John Bolton was originally scheduled to appear alongside the two officials.

NSC official criticized by civil rights groups named acting national security adviser

NBC News is reporting that deputy national security adviser Charlie Kupperman has been named the acting national security adviser.

Kupperman was appointed earlier this year amid intense criticism from civil rights group. Al Jazeera reported back in January:

Kupperman served on the board of directors for the Center for Security Policy (CSP) between 2001 and 2010, according to tax records.

The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), an Alabama-based hate monitor, designates the CSP as an anti-Muslim hate group, pointing to the group’s promotion of conspiracy theories claiming that Muslims have infiltrated the US government and seek to establish Islamic law in the country.

The Council for American Islamic Relations (CAIR) has called on the Trump administration to revoke Kupperman’s appointment.

‘Once again this is an example of Trump elevating foxes into the hen house, where Islamophobes are well placed to direct our nation’s national security priorities,’ Robert McCaw, director of CAIR’s government affairs department, told Al Jazeera.

White House spokesperson echoes Trump's claim Bolton was fired

White House spokesperson Hogan Gidley went on Fox News to echo Trump’s claim that Bolton was fired and did not resign.

That obviously contradicts Bolton’s assertion that he offered Trump his resignation last night and the president said they would discuss it today.

Gidley emphasized that Bolton’s priorities “did not align with President Trump’s,” arguing that Trump “has the right” to appoint people who agree with him.

Although Gidley said he was “not going to get in the back and forth here,” he did take a moment to stress that Trump asked for Bolton’s resignation. Gidley said the White House was “in the process” of searching for a new national security adviser.

Bolton’s firing followed a tense argument with Trump about the planned Taliban peace talks, per a CNN reporter.

Another CNN reporter noted the firing was so sudden that Bolton led a meeting this morning, similar to James Comey learning he had been fired as FBI director by a cable news alert while speaking in California.

The effects of Trump’s firing decisions (by tweet, no less) have once again reverberated around the world. The price of oil immediately nosedived after news of Bolton’s departure broke.

Bolton has reportedly left the White House and will no longer participate in the afternoon briefing with Mike Pompeo and Steven Mnuchin, much to the disappointment of Washington’s press corps.

Meanwhile, Bolton’s now-former employees at the National Security Council are telling reporters his side of the story, creating tension with the White House aides promoting Trump’s version of events.

Bolton appears to be texting every reporter whose number he has in his contacts list, reiterating that he was not fired and offered his resignation last night.

The ousted national security adviser also said he would “have my say in due course,” a potentially ominous idea for a presidency that has been repeatedly derailed by former aides’ tell-all books.

To be clear: Bolton isn’t necessarily gaining any friends in this showdown. Many of the hawkish national security adviser’s critics, on both sides of the aisle, are celebrating his departure.

A Republican senator who opposed his nomination said this to a CNN reporter:

From the congressman who cut ties with the Republican Party over its Trump support:

From a senior adviser to Democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg:

Bolton is not going down without a fight. After tweeting that he offered his resignation to Trump, the now-former national security adviser is apparently reaching out to reporters to amplify that narrative.

The White House denied that Bolton’s firing was based solely on his opposition to the planned Taliban peace talks at Camp David.

But Trump has historically held grudges against aides who disagree with him, particularly when those aides receive favorable press coverage for doing so.

After many lawmakers, including some Republicans, voiced shock at the proposal to host the Taliban so close to the 9/11 anniversary, Bolton’s reported opposition appeared quite sage.

Bolton contradicts Trump's timeline of the firing

Bolton has just sent out a fiery tweet of his own, claiming he offered Trump his resignation last night and the president delayed the decision.

In contrast, the president said he requested Bolton’s resignation last night, which was offered this morning.

The national security adviser had been repeatedly sidelined recently as he voiced disagreement with Trump’s efforts to secure an end to the war in Afghanistan.

The Washington Post recently reported:

Bolton, who has long advocated an expansive military presence around the world, has become a staunch internal foe of an emerging peace deal aimed at ending America’s longest war, the officials said.

His opposition to the diplomatic effort in Afghanistan has irritated President Trump, these officials said, and led aides to leave the National Security Council out of sensitive discussions about the agreement.

The sidelining of Bolton has raised questions about his influence in an administration that is seeking a troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, as well as an ambitious nuclear deal with North Korea and potential engagement with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. Bolton, U.S. officials said, stands in opposition to those efforts, but he does so increasingly from the periphery.

This tweet is likely shocking news to both Bolton and the White House, who just announced that the national security adviser would appear alongside Mike Pompeo and Steven Mnuchin at a press briefing at 1:30 p.m. E.T.

Trump fires Bolton by tweet

Trump has just announced that he has fired John Bolton just days after reports emerged that the national security adviser opposed the president’s secret plan to hold peace talks with the Taliban at Camp David.

Democratic presidential candidates are also coming out in force to endorse congressional candidate Dan McCready, who is running in today’s special election in North Carolina.

Democratic presidential candidates rushed to condemn Trump’s health care policies after the Census reported the US uninsured rate rose last year despite the strong economy.

The Democratic 2020 field is unanimous in its condemnation of the Trump administration’s efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act, but candidates differ strongly on whether to simply expand Obamacare or overhaul it with a Medicare-for-all system.

And with Democratic voters similarly divided over which system is best, the issue is sure to be one of the most prominent in the primary race.

An addition to today’s schedule: secretary of state Mike Pompeo, treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and national security adviser John Bolton will have an on-camera White House briefing at 1:30 p.m. E.T.

Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo (L) and John Bolton (R) hold a news conference after the NATO Summit in Brussels last year.
Donald Trump, Mike Pompeo (L) and John Bolton (R) hold a news conference after the NATO Summit in Brussels last year. Photograph: Yves Herman/Reuters

The briefing will ostensibly focus on combating terrorism. But if the three senior officials take questions from reporters, they are almost certain to be asked about Trump’s scrapped plans to hold peace talks with the Taliban at Camp David.

Pompeo was reportedly in favor of the controversial plan, while Bolton was strongly opposed to it. Pompeo and Bolton have also reportedly been clashing behind the scenes, and the two men rarely speak to each other outside of formal meetings.

The acting commissioner of Customs and Border Patrol, Mark Morgan, held a White House briefing yesterday as well — even as Trump’s press secretary steadfastly avoids the podium.

A fact-checking reporter for CNN has added, in response to Trump’s complaint about the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll showing his approval rating down, that the outlets involved never received a legal complaint from the president’s team.

Trump’s tweet has had the unintended (and entirely predictable) effect of putting even more attention on the results of the poll, which showed his approval rating dipping down to 38 percent.

Here are a couple more data points from the poll:

Millions more Americans go without health insurance under Trump

The US uninsured rate rose by 0.6 percent last year despite the strong economy, as millions more Americans went without health coverage.

Bloomberg News reports:

The increase in the rate of uninsured, from 7.9% in 2017 to 8.5% last year, is particularly remarkable given the falling unemployment rate during that period, since most Americans get coverage through work. It’s the first meaningful uptick in the number of people without health coverage since the main provisions of the Affordable Care Act took effect in 2014.

While the economy grew in 2018, individual health insurance premiums continued to increase, states tightened eligibility requirements for public safety-net coverage, and President Donald Trump carried on in his attempt to undo many of the health reforms passed by his predecessor.

The Census report indicates that the biggest decrease in coverage in 2018 came among those covered by Medicaid, the state-federal health program for low-income Americans. Almost two million fewer people were covered by Medicaid in 2018 than in the prior year.

Commerce secretary facing calls for his resignation over threatened Sharpiegate firings

Trump’s commerce secretary, Wilbur Ross, is facing calls for his resignation after he reportedly threatened firings at the NOAA unless the agency backed up the president’s false claim about Hurricane Dorian hitting Alabama.

The Guardian’s Ed Pilkington reports:

The head of the environmental group the Sierra Club, Michael Brune, called on Ross to resign to ‘maintain the dignity of the federal government’.

Brune called the intervention a ‘shameless abuse of power’ that could have ‘devastating results now and in the future’. Democratic congress members Don Beyer from Virginia and Paul Tonko from New York also called on Ross to step down.

And late on Monday, the New York Times amended its story to report that the commerce department’s own Office of Inspector General has launched an inquiry into that official statement and whether it breached departmental rules.

That adds to an investigation initiated on Sunday by the Noaa’s acting chief scientist, Craig McLean. He sent an email to colleagues announcing that he was looking into how the agency had come to disavow its own experts in backing Trump’s inaccurate claim.

Trump has gone even further, claiming that many polls are “fixed, or worked in such a way that a certain candidate will look good or bad.”

This accusation seems, to this blog, entirely baseless. At least when it comes to 2016 national polls, most of them were pretty close to the actual result.

For example, the Washington Post/ABC News poll (the initial source of Trump’s ire today) predicted just before Election Day 2016 that Hillary Clinton would win the popular vote by 4 points. She ended up winning it by 2 points but lost the Electoral College and the presidency along with it.

Of course, another one of Trump’s favorite baseless claims is that Clinton only won the popular vote because of voter fraud in blue states like California. If that were the case (and it’s not), she really should have sent some of those fake California voters to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. It could have given her the White House.

Trump denounces poll showing lower approval rating

So apparently Trump does occasionally read the “Amazon Washington Post.” The president slammed the newspaper, along with ABC News, for publishing a poll showing his approval rating down 6 points since June.

This gives the blog a chance to revisit those numbers. According to the poll, Trump’s approval has sunk to 38 percent amid intensifying fears about the economy. Six in 10 Americans now expect a recession to occur in the next year.

It’s understandable why Trump would want to distance himself from those numbers, particularly given that he is counting on a strong economy to win re-election.

But the president’s attack on the polling methodology seems unfounded. The polling and analysis website FiveThirtyEight gives Washington Post/ABC News polls a rating of “A+,” and national polls in 2016 were not far off from the actual result of Trump losing the popular vote.

CIA source extracted from Russian government sent US secrets for decades, report says

More details are coming to light about the high-level source reportedly extracted from the Russian government in 2017, partly over concerns that the person’s identity may be revealed by Trump or his administration.

The New York Times has now reported the source provided secrets to the US for decades and was a key informant on Russia’s 2016 election interference. But the Times threw a bit of cold water on the idea that Trump was one of the reasons for the extraction. From the paper’s front-page report:

As American officials began to realize that Russia was trying to sabotage the 2016 presidential election, the informant became one of the C.I.A.’s most important — and highly protected — assets. But when intelligence officials revealed the severity of Russia’s election interference with unusual detail later that year, the news media picked up on details about the C.I.A.’s Kremlin sources.

C.I.A. officials worried about safety made the arduous decision in late 2016 to offer to extract the source from Russia. The situation grew more tense when the informant at first refused, citing family concerns — prompting consternation at C.I.A. headquarters and sowing doubts among some American counterintelligence officials about the informant’s trustworthiness. But the C.I.A. pressed again months later after more media inquiries. This time, the informant agreed. ...

The decision to extract the informant was driven ‘in part’ because of concerns that Mr. Trump and his administration had mishandled delicate intelligence, CNN reported. But former intelligence officials said there was no public evidence that Mr. Trump directly endangered the source, and other current American officials insisted that media scrutiny of the agency’s sources alone was the impetus for the extraction.

Updated

Trump has sent out repeated Twitter endorsements for Dan Bishop, the Republican running in North Carolina’s special congressional race. The latest one came about 20 minutes ago.

Of course, if Bishop loses, this blog would bet good money that Trump will drop him as quickly as it takes to write out 280 characters.

The race is being read as a sign of Trump’s resilience in areas like North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District, which covers some of the southeastern suburbs of Charlotte. The 2018 midterms showed Republicans were losing support in those parts of the country, and today could indicate whether the party has stopped the bleeding.

Regardless of the winner, the victorious side will almost certainly rush to trumpet the results as a reflection of Trump’s presidency as the losing team downplays the race as just one district of many that could go the other way next year.

Ossoff announces Georgia Senate run

Speaking of special congressional races: a certain ghost of special races past has resurfaced — Jon Ossoff. The former Democratic congressional candidate announced he would run against senator David Perdue, a Republican of Georgia.

Jon Ossoff leaves a campaign office after meeting with supporters in Marietta, Ga., in 2017.
Jon Ossoff leaves a campaign office after meeting with supporters in Marietta, Ga., in 2017. Photograph: David Goldman/AP

In case you forgot about him (this blog certainly did), Ossoff narrowly lost to Karen Handel in a 2017 special election for Georgia’s Sixth Congressional District.

Because it was the first major race after Trump’s election, Ossoff benefited from immense fundraising and organizing energy on the left. But the roughly $30 million he raised was for naught; he lost to Handel by about 4 points. (Handel, in turn, lost to Democrat Lucy McBath the next year.)

Now Ossoff has jumped into the race against Perdue. Although he already has three primary opponents (and will likely get more), Ossoff immediately got an immediate boost with an endorsement from a Georgia celebrity: John Lewis, the longtime congressman and civil rights icon.

“Like the many thousands Jon has already organized and inspired, I am ready to work tirelessly to elect him,” Lewis said. “Georgia and America need Jon.”

Updated

Bellweather election arrives as Trump's approval falls

Good morning, live blog readers!

It’s another (special) election day here in the US. North Carolina’s Ninth District will hold a congressional race today after the 2018 results were thrown out due to election fraud. Donald Trump held a rally there last night to boost Republican Dan Bishop, and the Democratic Party has lined up behind Dan McCready, who lost by less than 1,000 votes in last year’s tainted election.

The race is being read as a sign of Trump’s popularity (or lack there of) in districts he easily carried in 2016. (The president won the Ninth District by 11 points back in 2016.) If Bishop can’t win today, will Trump be able to carry the Ninth (and other places like it) next year?

Trump’s latest approval rating may give some insight on that last question. According to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll, the president’s approval has slipped 6 points, down to 38 percent, since June. The decline seems mostly attributable to worsening attitudes about the economy, with 6 in 10 Americans expecting a recession in the next year.

Trump has been boasting of the strong economy for the past two years, and his team is banking on it to sail to re-election. Without it, he could be left floundering — taking a certain North Carolina congressional candidate down with him.

Kelly Craft testifies before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee during her confirmation hearing.
Kelly Craft testifies before a Senate Foreign Relations Committee during her confirmation hearing. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Here’s what else the blog is keeping its eye on today:

  • Trump will have lunch with Mike Pence before speaking at the National Historically Black Colleges and Universities Week Conference. He will later meet with congressional Republican leadership and participate in the swearing-in ceremony of the new US ambassador to the UN, Kelly Craft.
  • One minor thing first: Craft actually has to be confirmed by the Senate first. The chamber will hold a 10 a.m. E.T. vote on her nomination.
  • Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary, and Ben Carson, the housing and urban development secretary, will testify before the Senate committee on housing finance reform.

That’s all still coming up, so stay tuned.

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