WASHINGTON _ In 2004, George W. Bush showed up to campaign at the Golden Lamb Inn in Warren County, Ohio, and left with a hotel room named after him. In 2008, John McCain and Sarah Palin appeared at the same venue in suburban Cincinnati, cheered on by thousands. And in 2012, Mitt Romney made a similar late-fall push to energize his base in a county renowned for its staunch Republicanism.
But in 2017, in that same county, Democrats won more than a dozen local contests. And now, as midterm election campaigns heat up, Democrats there say the enthusiasm is intensifying. It's a reflection of the broader Democratic energy unfolding at every level of government during the Trump presidency, in some of the most traditionally Republican counties in the country �� a worrisome sign for Republicans bracing for a difficult year.
The extent to which local Democratic motivation can translate into votes in marquee races �� as it did in the Virginia governor's race and Alabama special Senate race last year �� will again be put to the test Tuesday, this time in Pennsylvania. President Donald Trump won the state's 18th Congressional District by a large margin, but Republicans are now worried about the special election there, pouring in millions of dollars to avoid defeat in a deeply conservative area.
But well before of Tuesday's special election, Republicans were seeing warning signs at the hyper-local level elsewhere in the country, especially in suburban areas that have long formed the backbone of the party but that are now drifting from the Trump brand at the local and state legislative level.
Previously sleepy Democratic parties are revving up, with each small local victory stoking enthusiasm for the next, bigger, contest.
Few people expect Warren County, which backed Trump with 66.5 percent of the vote in 2016, to turn Democratic in the 2018 elections. Democrats have historically been so beleaguered there that in 2012 and 2016, they confronted piles of manure dumped in front of their headquarters.
But the startling results from last fall have remained at the top of some operatives' concerns in the area who took the outcome as evidence of opportunities for more Democrats to win local elections, especially in the suburbs. And for some Republicans, it was an urgent alarm bell.
The excitement generated by unexpected Democratic victories has sparked more interest in future races. According to the Ohio Democratic Party, an unusually high number of Democrats are planning to run for precinct executive positions in Warren County _ low-profile roles, but a sign of grass-roots enthusiasm �� and the Republican-held 1st Congressional District of Ohio, which includes Warren County and other corners of moderate suburban Cincinnati, is also increasingly considered competitive.
"It shows, at every level, from statehouse to Congress and now the precinct level, Democrats are raising their hands and saying, 'I'm ready to go,'" said Ohio Democratic Party Chairman David Pepper.
Bethe Goldenfield, who heads the Warren County Democratic Party, said that at least a few disillusioned Republicans have expressed alarm to her about the polarizing direction of their party under Trump, whose hard-line, controversial style has alienated some moderates.
"I just got off the phone with a woman an hour ago who wants to become involved in the party," she said. "It's about Donald Trump. She's never voted Democratic in her life.
"On a cumulative basis, it's going to get us more votes, plus with our people more motivated ���� because what happens, sadly, is fear and anger motivate people a lot."
Jeff Monroe, the Republican chairman in Warren County, is skeptical. Party identifications weren't included on the ballot last November, muddying the argument that those races were a referendum on the Republican Party, and contests like a township race were litigated over ultra-local issues.
"Did it happen? Yeah, it did. It was driven by a very, very localized development," Monroe said. "I personally don't think Warren County is going to be any different than it has been in the past. Warren County is going to show up, the vote count is going to be roughly 70 percent or better for most Republican candidates. That's just where we are."
Overall, he said, most Republicans in the county are happy with the president, reflecting national polling that shows vibrant party support for Trump, especially after he signed the tax bill, which is also increasingly viewed favorably.
But national polls aside, the same trend of historic local Democratic gains in longtime Republican strongholds is playing out across the country.
In Chester County, Pa., in suburban Philadelphia, for the first time in county history, the county's centuries-long history, Democrats won a series of local positions called county row offices.
Brian McGinnis, who heads the county Democratic Party there, described the victories as "surreal. An "unprecedented" number of Democrats have now filled local party committee slots, he said.
"We were second-class political citizens in Chester County," he said. "Now we have a real opportunity to win some of these races."
It was a similar story elsewhere in the Philadelphia suburbs, including Bucks County, where in November Democrats had their strongest showing for county row seats in more than 50 years.
"It is largely driven by mainstream voters, mainstream Republicans and independents, being displeased by the tone and style of the administration, coupled with a historic off-year intensity by Democratic voters who wanted to make a statement," U.S. Rep. Ryan Costello, a Republican whose highly competitive district is anchored in Chester County, said at the time.
Since then, Republican voters in the area have been enthusiastic about the new tax law, but other developments �� including a deadly mass shooting and new suburban-rooted pushes for gun control and Trump's war with many in his own party over metal tariffs, have overshadowed that issue.
There is plenty of time between now and the midterm elections for Republicans to get back on message, and outside groups and campaigns are planning expensive television ad campaigns to do just that. And Democrats are hardly a sure bet in some of these more moderate congressional districts, especially as they deal with their own divisive primaries and an energetic progressive base that is inclined toward candidates that could be too left-leaning in a general election.
