On election day, the Republicans suffered widespread humiliation. The much-vaunted “red wave” emerged like a hoax, closer to a red ripple. Although the full results are still being counted, we know this much at least: that across all states and timezones, Republicans underperformed. This morning, the stench of failure hangs over Donald Trump and his party.
With Trump’s specter hovering over the ballot box like a malignant ghost, democracy and abortion proved to be more resilient issues than predicted. Crime and inflation remained relevant, but not determinative. Suburban women went Democratic.
Trump scares more than he draws. He’s a turn-off who can’t give up the spotlight or the lies. For Joe Biden and the Democrats, that’s a gift that keeps on giving. Chuck Schumer may well keep his job as the leader in the Senate.
On the House side, Kevin McCarthy, the presumed next speaker, watches his margins shrink. Lauren Boebert, one of the House’s Trumpiest firebrands, is facing a tight count against her Democratic opponent. McCarthy faces the unenviable task of taming a caucus that is home to Marjorie Taylor Greene. That’s no one’s idea of fun.
Looking at the map, voters in Pennsylvania rejected the one-term president’s picks for governor and senator. They said “no” to Dr Oz, the Harvard-educated snake-oil salesman, and Doug Mastriano, an extremist Christian nationalist linked to antisemites and far-right conspiracy theorists.
In Georgia, the Republican Senate candidate Herschel Walker – the Trump-tapped human mess, alleged domestic abuser, and absent dad – trails incumbent senator Raphael Warnock, minister of the storied Ebenezer Baptist church. Heading into a likely December runoff, Walker’s chances look iffy. The abortions Walker reportedly paid for have come with a political price.
Further west in Arizona, Trump-blessed Kari Lake and Blake Masters are running second for governor and senator, respectively. Each bought into the lie that Trump won the 2020 election. On Tuesday, Lake also openly threatened the press.
But it wasn’t just about personas and personalities. Traditional conservative positions on abortion and healthcare lacked purchase in otherwise reliably Republican states.
In Kentucky, home of Mitch McConnell, voters rejected an attempt to gut the right of privacy and a woman’s right to choose. South Dakotans opted to expand Medicaid coverage against the backdrop of higher living costs. Amid America’s cold civil war, commonsense politics made itself felt.
Looking back, the outcome in Kansas months earlier served as a harbinger of what followed. On Tuesday, Michiganders enshrined reproductive rights in their state’s constitution. It is unlikely that supreme court justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett had that outcome on their bingo-cards when they decided to overturn Roe v Wade.
Michigan voters also gave a thumbs-down to a Republican gubernatorial candidate who claimed that a young rape victim, forced to carry a child to term, would benefit from the resulting experience, and a state attorney general wannabe who was caught on tape saying the government should restrict the sale of contraceptives.
“The bond that those two people made and the fact that out of that tragedy there was healing through that baby, it’s something that we don’t think about,” Tudor Dixon told an interviewer. “The supreme court … has to decide, mark my words, that the privacy issue currently is unworkable,” said Matt DePerno, an advocate of election conspiracy theories and losing Republican attorney general candidate.
Crime, however, retains its salience. Kathy Hochul, New York’s accidental governor, needed to call in the Democratic party’s biggest guns in a last-minute salvage effort. The president, vice-president and Bill Clinton all showed up in the Empire state in the campaign’s closing days to shore up morale.
In 2020, Biden won New York by 23 points. In 2018, Andrew Cuomo coasted to re-election by an almost identical margin. Hochul’s final margin was less than 6%. The strong performance turned in by Lee Zeldin, her rightwing opponent, helped the Republicans flip several New York congressional seats, and may have cost Nancy Pelosi her gavel.
Crime was also an issue on the west coast. Karen Bass, a favorite of progressives, is locked in a footrace for the Los Angeles mayoralty with Rick Caruso, a former Republican and a billionaire real estate developer.
In 2017, Bass delivered a eulogy for a leader of the Communist Party USA. Three years later, Biden considered her as a possible running mate. As for Caruso, he garnered the endorsement of Bill Bratton – Los Angeles’ and New York City’s legendary former police chief.
While Trump was eating crow and the current West Wing occupant was busy exhaling, Ron DeSantis, Florida’s Republican governor, was having the night of his life. He won re-election by 20 points, and emerged as a real threat to Trump’s hopes for a 2024 coronation.
Trump is scared. Hours before the polls closed, he lashed out at DeSantis, and signaled that he was privy to the governor’s secrets – “things about him that won’t be very flattering”. Of course, after Stormy Daniels, there is little that voters would find shocking.
Right now, “Ron DeSanctimonious” occupies rent-free space in Trump’s head. It’s game on for the Republican presidential nod. In the end, both men may emerge bloodied. Suddenly, Biden isn’t looking so old.
Lloyd Green is an attorney in New York and served in the US Department of Justice from 1990 to 1992
