Democrats are looking to make another political statement in a special election Tuesday for a deep-red House seat in Tennessee that has garnered national attention.
Both parties have poured millions into the 7th District race between Republican Army veteran Matt Van Epps and Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn to complete the unfinished term of GOP former Rep. Mark E. Green, who resigned in July to take a job in the private sector. The election’s outcome will serve as another data point in the fight for the House in next year’s midterm elections with Republicans’ narrow majority on the line.
Polling shows the race for the 7th District — which Donald Trump carried by 22 points last year, according to calculations by Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales — has gotten closer. A Nov. 22-24 Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey showed a tight contest, with Van Epps at 48 percent and Behn at 46 percent, within the poll’s margin of error. Another 2 percent said they would support another candidate, and 5 percent were undecided.
Both candidates were holding get-out-the-vote events with top surrogates on the eve of the election. Van Epps campaigned Monday alongside Speaker Mike Johnson, Republican National Committee Chair Joe Gruters and members of Tennessee’s congressional delegation, while Trump was set to join an evening tele-rally after calling in to an earlier event.
“The whole world is watching Tennessee right now, and they’re watching the district,” Trump said via speakerphone at the Monday morning campaign event with Van Epps and Johnson. The president has also made multiple appeals on his Truth Social platform over the past week to boost GOP support for Van Epps.
Behn, meanwhile, had a Monday evening virtual rally planned with appearances by former Vice President Al Gore and a pair of prominent House progressives, Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Pramila Jayapal of Washington.
Heading into Election Day, Democrats argued that by forcing Republicans to invest in the race, they’d proved that their party has the stronger political momentum.
“Win or lose, Republicans have been forced to spend millions, deploy resources, and pull out all of the stops to try to save a seat in a district that Trump won by 22 points,” Abhi Rahman, a deputy communications director for the Democratic National Committee, said in a statement.
Still, Van Epps remains favored to hold the largely rural Middle Tennessee seat, which includes parts of Nashville and was drawn by state Republicans to be safely red when they split up the Democratic-leaning city in the state’s most recent redistricting round.
Inside Elections rates the race Lean Republican.
Republicans have attacked Behn, a former organizer with the Tennessee chapter of the progressive group Indivisible, as a “radical.” They’ve pointed to her opposition to certain tax cuts and past comments signaling support for defunding the police.
Behn, 36, has said she made those remarks before she won elective office and told CNN on Sunday that she “wouldn’t post things like that now and haven’t because I’ve definitely matured.”
Van Epps, 42, a former member of Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee’s cabinet, has emphasized his Army service during the campaign, which is his first run for office.
Both candidates won competitive primaries in October to claim their party nominations. Boosted by a late Trump endorsement, Van Epps bested a crowded primary field with a majority of the vote. Behn narrowly prevailed over three opponents on the Democratic side.
A handful of independent candidates are also on the 7th District ballot, including Jon Throp, who has benefited from spending by the group Your Community PAC, which usually backs Democratic candidates, in an apparent attempt to cut into Van Epps’ support.
Special overperformances
Democrats are hopeful Tuesday’s race could mark the latest in a string of overperformances for the party in House special elections this year. Democratic candidates improved on their party’s margins from 2024 in all four House special elections, including for a pair of GOP-held seats in Florida, although Republicans ultimately retained both districts.
Behn and Democratic groups have focused their ads on affordability, an issue credited with helping Democratic candidates in New Jersey, Virginia and New York win key races last month.
MAGA Inc., a super PAC supporting Trump, has spent $1.7 million on the race, while the political arm of the conservative Club for Growth has spent $473,000. Conservatives for American Excellence Inc., which has ties to GOP megadonors Paul Singer and Ken Griffin, has spent $767,000.
Democratic groups that have weighed in include House Majority PAC, which has ties to House Democratic leaders and announced a $1 million investment across television and digital platforms last month. Other groups such as Tennessee Rise PA, Planned Parenthood Votes and Indivisible Action have also invested to support Behn.
Behn held a slight fundraising advantage over Van Epps, according to pre-general election fundraising reports filed last month with the Federal Election Commission. The Democrat went into the final stretch of the campaign having raised $1.2 million through Nov. 12, including $1 million since Oct. 1. She ended the period with $522,000 on hand. Van Epps raised $993,000 through Nov. 12 and had $231,000 available heading into the campaign’s final weeks.
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