LOS ANGELES _ Republican Mike Garcia jumped to an early lead Tuesday over Democrat Christy Smith in the runoff for a House seat in the Los Angeles suburbs, raising GOP hopes of flipping a blue California congressional district for the first time since 1998.
Early results in the election to fill the remainder of Rep. Katie Hill's first term showed Garcia, a defense industry executive, ahead of Democratic state Assemblywoman Smith of Santa Clarita by 12 percentage points, with 76% of precincts reporting.
The final tally in the nearly all mail-in ballot contest won't be available for several days _ ballots postmarked by Tuesday and received by end of day Friday will be counted. But Garcia's lead suggests the 25th Congressional District, which includes Palmdale, Porter Ranch, Santa Clarita, Simi Valley and part of Lancaster, is within his party's reach.
"I'm proud of the results so far, and look forward to hopefully declaring victory very soon," Garcia said on a call with supporters and the media Tuesday night.
Smith said in a statement that it was "too early" to call the race.
In the weeks leading up to the election, both parties acknowledged the race would be competitive, despite Democrats' 6.6-point voter registration advantage. Lower turnout elections like Tuesday's runoff tend to draw an older and whiter electorate, usually to the advantage of Republicans.
The coronavirus outbreak also put an end to traditional campaigning and get-out-the-vote efforts such as door knocking and rallies. Both candidates have alluded to the pandemic in their ads: Garcia accused Smith of failing to use her position leading an emergency management committee in Sacramento to respond to COVID-19, and Smith criticized his opposition to the Affordable Care Act and tied him to President Donald Trump, who endorsed him, and his response to the virus.
If Garcia does prevail, he'll go to Washington to fill Hill's seat, while also campaigning for the Nov. 3 general election to win a new term that begins January 2021.
Hill resigned in October 2019 after nude photos of her were leaked and she was accused of having an affair with a congressional staffer, a violation of House ethics rules. She has denied the allegation.
It's unclear whether the uncounted ballots include enough last-minute Democratic votes to change the outcome of the final results, as has happened in past California House races. As of Tuesday afternoon, 45% of registered Republicans, 31% of registered Democrats and 22% of independents had returned their ballots, according to Political Data Inc., an election analysis firm.
The initial count released by election officials Tuesday night included 139,000 votes out of the more than 425,000 ballots sent to every registered voter in the district, though not all ballots will be returned.
There were seven vote centers in Los Angeles County and two in Ventura County, as well as more than two dozen vote-by-mail drop boxes. By mid-afternoon Tuesday only 200 voters had visited the in-person voting centers at the Simi Valley Public Library and the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Ventura County.
Regardless of Tuesday's outcome, Democrats say Smith will fare better in November, when the presidential election will boost turnout.
Democrats flipped the longtime Republican seat in 2018, when Hill beat former Rep. Steve Knight by nearly 9 percentage points.
Smith, a former school board member, quickly became the party's favorite to take Hill's place. In 2018 she beat a Republican incumbent to win her assembly district, which overlaps with 60% of the 25th Congressional District. Despite a crowded Democratic field in the March 3 primary, she easily advanced to the May 12 runoff. Garcia beat Knight to come in second.
In the weeks leading up to the race, both candidates have been backed by prominent figures in their parties. Smith has been endorsed by former President Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. In addition to Trump, Garcia has been backed by former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.
