Summary
The 12th Republican debate is done. Here’s how it went down:
- It was a civil affair. Ted Cruz bopped Donald Trump a bit for giving money to Hillary Clinton. But gone were the peppery attacks of debates past.
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The debate was policy-heavy. Think trade, H1-B visas, social security, Common Core, the Islamic state, Israel, Tiananmen Square, climate change, Cuba policy, Iran, veterans affairs...
- Trump confirmed that former candidate Ben Carson would endorse him in the morning.
- Cruz and Marco Rubio distanced themselves from Trump on the question of assassinating the families of terrorism suspects, which Trump has proposed. The other two said they would not do that.
- “If we nominate Donald Trump, Hillary wins,” Cruz said.
- Trump suggested Republican rules for awarding the nomination based on a majority of delegates should be jettisoned. “I think that whoever gets the most delegates should win,” he said.
- Neither Rubio nor Ohio governor John Kasich would admit the extreme narrowness of his path to the nomination. “Math doesn’t tell the whole story in politics,” Kasich said.
- Rubio dismissed a human role in climate change: “Sure, the climate is changing... There was never a time when the climate was not changing.”
- Asked about violence at his rallies, Trump said he did not condone it, but his supporters “have anger that’s unbelievable. They love this country. They don’t like seeing bad trade deals.”
All Virgin Islands delegates to arrive at convention uncommitted
All nine delegates from the U.S. Virgin Islands to the Republican National Convention in July will be uncommitted, writes Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs:
With final results from the U.S. territory’s Republican caucuses in, all six delegates up for election in the Virgin Islands will be uncommitted. Combined with the three delegates who owe their places at the convention to their rule in the territory’s Republican Party, the entire delegation will be up for grabs in July.
The delegates will be free to support any candidate they choose at the convention on the first ballot used to elect a nominee.
In a potential contested convention, the delegates would have disproportionate influence for being uncommitted. The delegation will include veteran Republican strategist John Yob, the author of the forthcoming book Convention Chaos about a potential contested convention.
The impact of these results goes beyond the fact that the six delegates up for election on Thursday will not be pledged to any candidate. Rule 40b of the Republican Party currently states that candidates need to win the support of a majority of the delegations in eight different states or territories to have their name placed into nomination at a convention.
Party insiders have long assumed that the rule, implemented solely to block Ron Paul’s name from being placed into nomination in 2012, would be modified before the 2016 convention. However, if that doesn’t happen, unpledged delegates, combined with the territory’s three RNC members, would be able to form a majority of Virgin Islands’ delegation. This means they could potentially serve as one of the eight states needed for a candidate to have their name placed into nomination.
But, regardless of the rule’s applicability, in what looks like a vicious dogfight for the GOP nomination, there are now a few more delegates who owe nothing to any candidate on the ballot.
Donald Trump slipped into the spin room with a leonine prowl tonight, leading the candidates in to face a throng of cameras with few words but plenty of attitude, writes Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts:
Beneath a largely superfluous banner announcing his name, the increasingly confident Republican frontrunner took a few questions on recent violence at his rallies but did not pause long enough before each camera to add much of substance.
In contrast to the alleged assault of a reporter at his rally, this procession – which was followed by John Kasich and Ted Cruz some paces behind – saw most journalists kept away from the candidate by metal crush barriers and only television cameras allowed up close.
Spin rooms are often the place that advisers come to interpret and explain their candidates’ performance, but tonight’s appearance had more of the feel of a victory lap.
Trump: I think 'she made it up'
Here’s video of Trump saying a reporter allegedly assaulted by his campaign manager “made it up.” Below that is an audio recording of her before and after the incident, a photo of her injuries and the description of a Washington Post reporter who saw it.
VIDEO: Trump to @DylanByers on @MichelleFields incident. "I think she made it up." pic.twitter.com/VUB5LnbrTM
— Ryan Nobles (@ryanobles) March 11, 2016
I guess these just magically appeared on me @CLewandowski_ @realDonaldTrump. So weird. pic.twitter.com/oD8c4D7tw3
— Michelle Fields (@MichelleFields) March 10, 2016
Washington Post reporter account:
As security parted the masses to give him passage out of the chandelier-lit ballroom, Michelle Fields, a young reporter for Trump-friendly Breitbart News, pressed forward to ask the Republican front-runner a question. I watched as a man with short-cropped hair and a suit grabbed her arm and yanked her out of the way. He was Corey Lewandowski, Trump’s 41-year-old campaign manager.
Fields stumbled. Finger-shaped bruises formed on her arm.
Trump himself reportedly denies the allegation that his campaign manager manhandled a reporter.
That would mean the reporter is lying, the Washington Post reporter who witnessed the incident is lying and the audio recording documenting it is fabricated.
#Break: Donald Trump just told me he thinks that the Michelle Fields incident didn't happen. "I think they made it up."
— Dylan Byers (@DylanByers) March 11, 2016
From the comments / who won?
We asked, you answered. Well you didn’t all declare a winner – but here’s how some of you weighed in on what just happened:
Guardian says Rubio won, various other pundits say the same or Cruz ergo Trump won and Kasich came second by default other two performed horribly ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I don’t know that we have declared a Rubio victory... we did think he ran circles around Trump on Cuba:
Trump pretty much mailed this one in, sort of just riding with the waves. Kasich was also pretty weak, disappointing as he is a candidate I have supported.
Rubio easily won the debate, very eloquent. Where has he been all this time? Cruz also had a good debate, but not at the level of Rubio.
As others have said here, the other three candidates certainly should have gone after Donald on violence at these circus like Trump rallies.
Marco Rubio had an uncommonly strong debate night tonight – and he certainly needed it after poor performances in the last two and an embarrassing finish in Saturday’s primaries. His route to the nomination looks increasingly impossible, and perhaps that now-or-never realization was what unleashed his tongue.
When a moderator asked Rubio about opening up diplomatic relations with Cuba and, specifically, why he thinks the president and Donald Trump and the American people are all wrong about their willingness to do so, Rubio said he would love for the US to change its relationship with Cuba, but that that ‘would first require the Cuban government to change’.
Later, when Trump seemed to have no idea what to say about US policy with Cuba, Rubio seemed ready to explain it to him.
Earlier, when Trump accused him of being politically correct in his nuanced approach to relations with Muslims, Rubio had a clever retort: ‘I’m not interested in being politically correct – I’m interested in being correct.’ And on the question of climate change, he drew applause with more pithy bon mots. He said Miami was in trouble because it was built on a swamp and that ‘as far as a law we can pass in Washington to change the weather, there’s no such thing’.
Late in the debate Rubio acknowledged of his Not-So-Super Tuesday, ‘I didn’t do as well as I would have liked,’ but he added that a story his wife had told him about a supporter who believed in him through thick and thin had given him strength.
If losing is really what gives him strength, perhaps it’s too bad he didn’t do it earlier.
Michelle Fields, the Breitbart reporter yanked around and bruised by Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski on Tuesday, expresses disappointment that the debate moderators did not confront Trump about his campaign’s denial of the incident, despite an audio recording of it and witness account:
Really a shame @hughhewitt @jaketapper
— Michelle Fields (@MichelleFields) March 11, 2016
Updated
Clinton posts her usual post-debate provocation:
Debate one of these guys? Bring it on. #GOPdebate pic.twitter.com/k9SNv0T3cL
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) March 11, 2016
Closing statements
Kasich: I’ve tried to be positive. I wanted to raise the bar in presidential politics. [This sounds like a valedictory.] “I will continue to run a positive campaign. I can fix it, I’ve done it before.” Federal power to the states. [This is a long closing statement.] My beloved Buckeyes.
Rubio: Great to be home in Miami. My father was a bartender. I’m a presidential candidate. My parents wanted me to live their dream. That was possible because America is special. Now the moment has arrived for our generation to do our part. The single greatest nation ever.
Cruz: What an incredible nation we have. That the son of a bartender and the son of a mailman and the son of a dishwasher and a successful businessman” could be running for president. Who will best represent our values, who will best defend your values and fight for you? I cannot wait to stand on this stage [against Hillary Clinton]. Cops firefighters soldiers.
Trump: New Republican voters – they’re coming by the millions. We should seize that opportunity. These are people that will win us the election. Fabulous supreme court justices. If we lose... it will take centuries to recover. Unify. Be smart and unify.
Perfect close from Trump: Who you gonna believe, the pollsters or the arenas I'm filling with voters?
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) March 11, 2016
Updated
A classic bit of victim blaming: Trump, asked by a moderator about the repeated violence against protesters and members of the media at his rallies, did what you might expect – he vilified the protesters.
‘We have some protesters. They are bad dudes. They are swinging,’ Trump said.
This came on the heels of a report that his own campaign manager assaulted a member of the media at an event in Jupiter, Florida, this week, and multiple incidents – many videotaped – involving peaceful Black Lives Matter protesters.
‘They get in there and they’re hitting people,’ Trump alleged of the protesters, adding: ‘They’ve got to be taken out, we’ve got to run something … and it’s not me, it’s usually the police.’
Trump’s response is part of a larger culture of denying responsibility for the violence that takes place at his rallies. This week we saw just how far up into his campaign that culture extends.
Most troubling of all, perhaps, was that none of the other candidates seemed to want to condemn the violence at Trump events, either. Instead his chief rival, Ted Cruz, used the opportunity to align Trump with Obama: ‘We’ve seen for seven years someone who believes he’s above the law, who thinks he’s an emperor.’
What about whether anyone in his administration reportedly physically assaulted anyone? How about that?
Updated
Last break. What did you think about that exchange on the delegate math?
Trump says whoever gets the most delegates should win. He describes getting a majority as "an artificial number"
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) March 11, 2016
Trump believes 1237 is artificial number — he thinks whoever has the most delegates at the end should be nominee even if short of 1237
— David Chalian (@DavidChalian) March 11, 2016
Kasich: Math doesn't tell the whole story
— Ben Jacobs (@Bencjacobs) March 11, 2016
Trump is asked whether he would consider to reject major outside donations in a general election campaign.
He says he’s not sure but “I don’t want anyone to control me but the people out there.”
Cruz says Trump can’t point to a single special interest he would take on – Wall Street, ethanol, you name it.
Trump replies that Cruz is supported by political action committees. “There is total control of the candidates,” he says. “I know the system far better than anyone else.. because I was on both sides of it... I’m the only one up here that is gonna be able to fix that system.”
Cruz: 'If we nominate Donald Trump, Hillary wins'
Kasich is asked about whether he has a path to the nomination.
“Math doesn’t tell the whole story in politics... what’s true today is not necessarily true tomorrow,” Kasich says. “You just have to win enough delegates to be the nominee.”
He recalls Reagan losing to Ford at the 1976 Republican convention. “Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. We don’t know what’s going to happen because we still have about have the delegates to be selected.”
Trump is asked if he arrives in Cleveland with a plurality but not a majority, would he agree to a brokered convention?
Trump: “First of all I think I’m going to have the delegates. But if somebody doesn’t have the delegates... if two of us get up there. If Marco, if the governor, if Ted had more votes than me in terms of delegates ... I think that whoever gets the most delegates should win.”
Cruz is asked about what would happen if there were a brokered convention.
“There is some in Washington who are having fevered dreams of a brokered convention... I think that would be an absolute disaster,” Cruz says.
“There are only two of us who have a path to the nomination... Donald and myself,” he says.
And here’s his sales pitch:
“If we nominate Donald Trump, Hillary wins,” Cruz says flatly.
Rubio said after getting no delegates Tuesday he was disappointed, but then his wife told him about a retired man who had surgery and uses a walker but holds a Marco Rubio sign outside annyway. (That was the story.) “He’s not giving up on me and I’m not giving up on him,” RUbio says.
name the gentleman with the aluminum walking chair or he doesn't exist Marco.
— Dan Roberts (@RobertsDan) March 11, 2016
Updated
It’s frankly surprising to see climate change come up in a GOP debate at all. Polling has repeatedly shown that while Democrats and Republicans alike care about issues like the economy, climate change is a huge fault line politically.
Last November, Pew Research found strong partisan divides on the issue, as the chart below shows.
More recently, a poll from Quinnipiac University last month found that 7% of Democrats rate climate change as the most important issue in determining which candidate they support for the party’s presidential nominee.
When Republicans were asked the same question, the results were so low (less than 1%) that Quinnipiac simply reported climate change issues with “–” in the results summary.
Cruz is asked about violence at rallies and he says he thinks it’s strange that Trump asked people to take a pledge to him because the role of the candidate is to pledge himself to the people.
In a tacit criticism of Trump, Kasich says “you can either prey on that and be negative about it, or you can tell people that these things can be fixed.”
Rubio says “I’m concerned about violence in general in our society” first against law enforcement.
“Leadership is about using the anger to motivate us to take action, not to define us,” Rubio says.
Trump on supporters: 'They have anger that's unbelievable'
Trump is asked about whether he has contributed to the climate of violence that attends some of his rallies.
“I hope not. I truly hope not. People come with tremendous passion...”
Trump says he has not seen video of a supporter last night sucker-punching a protester. Anybody who watches cable as much as Trump would seem to have seen it.
“I haven’t seen, I heard about it, I don’t like it.
But then Trump defends his protesters: “They have anger that’s unbelievable. They love this country. They don’t like seeing bad trade deals. They don’t like using their jobs.”
As for the violence: “I certainly do not condone that at all.”
But Tapper follows up, quoting inflammatory things Trump has said at rallies: “I’d like to punch him in the face.... Knock the crap out of him, would you. Just knock the hell?”
Trump then blames the protesters:
We have some protesters who are bad dudes... they are swinging, they are really dangerous. ... We had a couple big powerful strong guys doing damage to people.
Updated
Tonight is apparently the night everyone ran out of talking points and started recycling!
Ted Cruz, as he did on 17 February, repeated the myth that President Obama returned a bust of Winston Churchill to the British because of some sort of unstated ideological disagreement, but that he would totally demand the bust back.
The truth, of course, is somewhat different. The bust in question was loaned to George W Bush by Tony Blair in 2001 and returned as a matter of diplomatic protocol because it was a personal loan to W.
A separate bust of Churchill, given to then-President Lyndon B Johnson in the 1960s, remains in the White House today.
Updated
Hillary Clinton weighs in on the climate change exchange. None of the candidates tonight used the “I’m not a scientist” line, but Rubio at least has in the past:
Republican candidates deny climate change because they’re “not scientists.” #GOPdebate pic.twitter.com/ApzqrcHleN
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) March 11, 2016
Here’s Sanders’ last check-in. Unclear whether he’s watching this thing:
The recklessness, greed and illegal behavior of Wall Street drove this country into the worst economic downturn in modern history.
— Bernie Sanders (@BernieSanders) March 11, 2016
Commercial break. They’re 90 minutes in. How are they looking to you? Rubio looks pretty good tonight? But they all are keeping pace. Pros this bunch.
Updated
Kasich, Trump split on Tiananmen
Trump is asked about positive things he’s said about Putin, and asked about his admiring comments for the Chinese government crackdown on the Tiananmen protesters.
Trump says yes he said the Chinese response was strong but that’s not necessarily an admiring assessment.
“Strong doesn’t mean good,” Trump says. “I say it as the fact.”
Kasich gives a much more exciting and morally clear response to the question:
I think that the Chinese government butchered those kids, and when that young man stood in front of that tank, we ought to build a statue of him over here.
Governor John Kasich has claimed that the world is calling for “a strong America”.
Well… not all the world, it turns out. Take the people of Jordan – whose king has been heralded time and again as a great ally at both the Republican and Democratic debates. They have an overwhelmingly unfavorable opinion of the United States (83%).
Other allies aren’t overwhelmingly supportive: 45% of Germans think we’re crappy, as do 58% of Turks. Even 26% of Canadians don’t like the US, and they never hate anyone.
One suspects that’s not because we’re not invading and/or bombing enough places.
This is not the first time that Marco Rubio has suggested that Cuba needs to expel Assata Shakur (albeit not by name) before normalization of relations should happen.
Of course, not mentioning her by name makes it harder to Google her, so to recap:
Cuba considers her conviction political and has consistently refused to extradite her; Shakur was a member of the Black Liberation Army who was driving a vehicle with two other members when pulled over by New Jersey State troopers in 1973. Shakur and one trooper were shot and survived; Trooper Werner Foerster and one of Shakur’s passengers died of gunshot wounds. Shakur was convicted after a trial in 1977 that her lawyers have argued was prejudiced (and before and during which her lawyers believe that law enforcement interfered with her defense), but she escaped and fled to Cuba in 1979.
You can read more here:
Cruz rejects the notion that the tone of the presidential election is hurting the US image overseas. On the contrary, Cruz says, it’s Barack Obama who has hurt the US image overseas.
He says a president can change overnight and there’s hope for a “president who stands with our friends and allies... and demonstrates strength to our enemies.”
Kasich accepts the scientific consensus of a human role in climate change.
“I do believe we contribute to climate change” but that doesn’t mean you have to hurt the economy to fix it, Kasich says.
“You can have strong environmental policy at the same time as you have strong economic growth,” Kasich says.
Rubio denies climate change anomaly
Climate change question: “Will you acknowledge the reality of the scientific consensus of climate change?”
Guess what? No.
Rubio: “Sure, the climate is changing... There was never a time when the climate was not changing.”
Rubio says flooding in south Florida is caused by the fact that it’s built on a swamp and says he favors mitigation measures.
“As far as a law that we can pass in Washington that can change the weather? There’s no such thing.” Then he decries Obama EPA and emissions regulations and “the war on coal.”
“These laws that people are asking us to pass will do nothing for the environment and hurt the economy,” Rubio says.
Updated
Kasich is asked whether he would encourage US companies to do business with Cuba.
Kasich says he would not. Then he says US allies are confused by US foreign policy, which he says is inconsistent. He touches on Syria, Egypt, the Gulf, Syria, Egypt...
“You need to support your friends, you need to hold your enemies out here and you need to negotiate better deals.”
Kasich is on a foreign policy tear, arming Ukrainians, warning Vladimir Putin that America is fed up.
Rubio clocks Trump on the Cuba question. He rattles down the list of anti-Castro grievances and is applauded absolutely wildly.
Cruz gets the question. Would you break diplomatic relations with Cuba? “Yes I would,” Cruz says.
Then Cruz says the question illustrates “a real difference between us” on foreign policy. Trump, Cruz says, supports the “same basic trajectory” of policy as Obama and Clinton have established.
Trump says again, “we would not do the deal unless it would be a very good deal for us.” Then he skips to Iran. Deal, deal, deal. How many times has Trump said “deal”?
Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts:
I wonder how different the nomination race might have been if every GOP debate had been a civilised discussion of policy issues like this?
— Dan Roberts (@RobertsDan) March 11, 2016
I think part of the reason why this debate feels more substantive is they have longer to answer. Size of the field led to race to the bottom
— Dan Roberts (@RobertsDan) March 11, 2016
Trump has said that opening Cuba is fine. “I want a much better deal with Cuba,” he now says. He lapses into his riff about “we don’t make any good deals.”
“I do agree that something should take place. After 50 years it’s enough time folks. But we have to make a good deal here.”
Next question is about Obama’s trip later this month to Cuba. The question goes to Rubio, on why the United States must not engage further with Cuba.
Rubio says that the US changes allow money to flow to the Castro regime “and nothing will change for the Cuban people. ... In fact things are worse, than they were before this opening.”
Rubio says the only result of “the opening” is the Cuban government has more sources than money.
Big huge applause line for Rubio, as he blasts the Cuban regime.
The state of the anti-Trump coalition is strong. One of the questions going into tonight was whether candidates would uphold a relatively fragile and informal truce to band together in attacking Trump and not one another. For Rubio, facing down the prospect of a highly embarrassing end in his home state of Florida next week, it’s a valid concern.
So far the truce is intact, with Rubio going after Trump for his claim that Islam, broadly defined, hates America. ‘He says what people wish they can say,’ Rubio said of Trump. ‘The problem is presidents can’t just say what they want, it has consequences here and around the world.’
Trump countered with his favorite go-tos: the specter of 9/11 and the notion that Rubio was simply being ‘politically correct’.
But Rubio punched back: ‘I’m not interested in being politically correct – I’m interested in being correct,’ he quipped, before explaining how not all Muslims have been radicalized.
The point here goes firmly to Rubio – and to every other candidate trying to beat Trump, which is to say, everyone on stage.
Rubio takes a question on veterans benefits. He says more people in the veterans administration need to be held accountable and fired. “No one’s been disciplined, no one’s been demoted.” He promises as president to fire bad VA employees.
Kasich takes a question about cutting VA spending as an effort to balance the budget. “My initial impression is no,” he says. Then he says all veterans need health care, the guarantee of a home, and job training.
Trump suggests force of '20,000-30,000' needed to fight Islamic State
Cruz takes a question about Syria and the fight against the Islamic state. He zeroes in on rules of engagement, blaming the president for making the rules too strict. “I think that it is wrong, it is immoral.”
Kasich reminds the crowd that he spent 18 years on the armed services committee. “We absolutely have to win this with a coalition,” Kasich says. “It’s gotta be shock and awe, in the military speak... and we will wipe them out... and let the regional powers redraw the map if that’s the only choice.”
Trump is asked how many troops are needed to finish the job.
“I would listen to the generals, but I am hearing numbers of 20-30,000,” he says.
More from our US data editor…
As the candidates debated what percentage of Muslims are radicalized, I got to thinking about how pollsters makes the same assumptions as political candidates.
Research from Pew in 2009 found that there was “little support for terrorism among Muslim Americans” because 78% of Muslims American respondents said they believed suicide bombings could never be justified. However, the results were asterisked with the statement “asked of Muslims only”.
This is problematic. When only one minority is asked to explain themselves, their proclivity towards evil is hard to judge – we just don’t know whether that number would be higher or lower for the US population as a whole.
Kasich is asked whether he agrees with the Israeli government that Palestinians are inciting violence?
“There’s no question,” Kasich says. Then he invites Miamians to imagine living under an Iron Dome missile defense system.
He says long-term security is not likely in the region and conflict response and defense must be the priorities.
A list of current Trump properties and projects in majority Muslim countries, where, by Trump’s reckoning, they hate us ... but not enough to not patronize his businesses.
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Trump World Golf Club Dubai
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Trump Towers, Istanbul, Sisli
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Trump International Golf Club, Dubai
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Trump International Hotel & Tower Bali
In 2014, Trump’s company announced a project in Azerbaijan – the Trump International Hotel & Tower Baku. The project disappeared from the company’s website in late 2015 after Mother Jones began making inquiries. The deal was reportedly negotiated with an infamous oligarch.
Cruz accuses Trump of “the moral relativism president Obama has.”
The answer is not to say all Muslims hate us, Cruz says.
Then Rubio jumps in to batter Trump a bit on Israel.
“The policy Donald has outlined, I don’t know if he realizes, is an anti-Israel policy,” says Rubio, never one to be outrun for pro-Isreal bona fides.
Rubio’s rationale is that there is no Palestinian side to negotiate with and so negotiations are a mirage.
Rubio is cheered robustly by the home-town crowd.
Trump is pushed by Cruz for saying he, Trump, hoped to be an honest broker in the Middle East conflict.
Trump says he’s the most pro-Israel candidate on stage. He’s booed a bit for that – the first booing of the night.
“I happen to have a son-in-law and a daughter that are Jewish, OK?” Trump says.
Updated
Trump pushed on targeting terror suspects' families
Trump is asked about his prescription to “take out the families of terrorists”. How does he square that with Geneva Convention proscriptions against killing civilians?
Trump brings up waterboarding. We can’t – but they can drown people in “big steel cages.”
“We have to obey the laws, but we have to expand those laws, because we have to be able to fight on somewhat of an equal footing.. or we’ll be a bunch of suckers and they are laughing at us,” Trump says.
Rubio’s asked if he would target families of terrorist suspects.
“No, of course not,” he says. It’s not smart policy, he says. Instead intelligence agencies should find terrorists and a rebuilt military should do the same.
Rubio says terror suspects are “not gonna have a right to remain silent” but they’ll go to the prison at Guantanamo.
Cruz agrees he would not kill terrorist suspects’ families.
“No of course not, we’ve never targeted innocent civilians and we’re not going to start now,” Cruz says, in the fashion of CIA director John Brennan, who has said the US drone programs have resulted in no civilian casualties.
Kasich says he does not believe that “Islam hates us.” He recapitulates Rubio’s point that the USA needs Muslim partners to combat “radical Islam.”
Kasich says radical Islam is an enemy of “other Muslims.”
Trump stands by 'Islam hates us' assertion
OK they’re back. And directly back to Trump, who said “Islam hates us.” Did you mean all 1.6bn Muslims?
“I mean a lot of them. I mean a lot of them,” Trump says.
“There’s something going on, that maybe you don’t know about...and I will stick with exactly what I said.”
He’s applauded.
Rubio is asked about supporter Senator Jeff Flake who called Trump’s comments not in keeping with the Republican party.
“Presidents just can’t say anything they want. It has consequences, here and around the world,” Rubio says.
Applause line.
He says he met missionaries in Bangladesh who rely on friendly Muslims who told him that today because of leading US figures saying Americans don’t like Muslims – it’s hard to work as a missionary in Bangladesh.
Trump gets the mic back and invokes 9/11. “I don’t want to be so politically correct, I like to solve problems,” Trump says. “Large portions of a group of people, Islam,” want to attack the US. “There is tremendous hatred.”
“I’m not interested in being politically correct,” Rubio replies. “I’m interested in being correct.” He says that Islam has a problem on its hands, but that the USA must work with Jordan, the Saudis, gulf states and Egypt – “people of the Muslim faith, even as Islam faces a crisis.”
Strong applause. The crowd awards the exchange to Rubio.
Updated
Clinton snark:
#GOPdebate pic.twitter.com/aAE5q0IBYN
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) March 11, 2016
US data editor Mona Chalabi again, this time on the debate about social security…
Politics aside, Rubio’s comments about increasing the age of retirement make sense if you look at US life expectancy. Between 1980 and 2013, US life expectancy at birth increased from 70.0 to 76.4 years for men and from 77.4 to 81.2 years for women.
But, as the chart below from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows, those trends differ dramatically by race, with black Americans only just starting to catch up with white Americans. It’s partly because of such racial disparities that national life expectancy in the US is lower than it is in other developed countries like the UK, Australia or Greece.
Commercial break – who’s winning? Did Cruz just get the best of that exchange with Trump? Or are the policy details swimming about the stage causing viewers’ eyes to glaze over?
Cruz: 'we've got to get beyond the rhetoric of "China bad"'
Trump is asked what the GOP should stand for in 2016.
He says he holds views “that are similar to many different people.” “I am different in one primary respect, and that’s trade... trade deals are absolutely killing our country.” He would slap a 30%-40% tariff on Chinese goods.
Cruz is asked what is wrong about Trump’s vision? Cruz says he’s right about the problems but the solutions are bad. He notes Trump once suggested a 45% tariff on Chinese goods.
Then he drops a Smoot-Hawley reference – the 1930 tariffs package faulted for contributing to the Great Depression.
He warns that prices in Wal-Mart would go up from tariffs and presents his tax plan as a superior way to control prices.
Trump replies that “the 45% tax is a threat. It is not a tax, it is a threat. It will be a tax, if they don’t behave.”
Then Trump drops a Trumpism on US trade policy with China: “It’s not free trade, it’s stupid trade.”
Cruz challenges the audience to make the policy debate playing out personal: “Ask yourself at home: how does this help you?” He says the tariff is a tax on American consumers.
“We’ve got to get beyond rhetoric of China bad, and actually get to how you solve the problem,” Cruz says.
Great exchange, Trump digs back in. He says if China does not behave, the tariff goes on, “and we’ll build our factories here and make our own products.” That sounds like a long-term plan.
US data editor Mona Chalabi has more on those H1B visas…
The jury’s out on Trump’s comments about the impact of H1B visas on the US economy. It’s true that many of these visas are issued – the latest data shows that in 2014, a total of 318,824 H1B petitions were filed and that same year 315,857 H1B petitions were approved.
Analysts disagree, however, about the impact of those immigrants. The Economic Policy Institute argues that the visas neither create jobs nor improve conditions for existing workers. The American Immigration Council, though, claims that in some parts of America, demand for qualified jobs simply outweighs the supply of skills available.
Guardian writer Jeb Lund is in Miami.
It’s a testament to Donald Trump’s force in the Republican primary that we’re even having a discussion about whether free trade is anything other than always good. In 2012, the moderators would have asked each candidate about trade in a debate in, say, Ohio or Pennsylvania, not somewhere like Miami, and then it would have been forgotten. Now, the idea of protectionist tariffs is such a winner with working class white people flocking to Trump that all of these guys have to utter some kind of performative nonsense.
KASICH: My family was once blue collar, so we should have free trade but also fair trade. This makes no sense.
CRUZ: I will create taxes to keep industry here. This is certainly a lie and almost certainly impossible.
RUBIO: Flowers from Colombia are good because it created millio – er, hundreds of jobs. We shouldn’t have free trade, because it’s bad, because other countries have tariffs. We need to negotiate away those tariffs, so we can have free trade.
TRUMP: [cheshire grin]
Trump gives voice to the unity imperative. “We’re all in this together,” he says. “So far I cannot believe how civil it’s been up here.”
He’s right. The night is unrecognizable from previous outings. Downright genteel.
Cruz is on about inflation, and in his tax plan. “The answer can’t just be, wave a magic wand and say, problem go away. You have to understand the problems, you have to have real solutions.”
He says Hillary Clinton just asserts she would solve problems but that’s a typical “liberal” thing to say.
The comparison to a certain someone standing next to him is unmissable.
Then Cruz draws a contrast between himself and “Clinton,” ie Trump.
“The less government, the more freedom. The fewer bureaucrats the more prosperity.”
Then the first real attack of the debate so far: Cruz hits Trump over writing checks to Democrats.
“If you have a candidate who has been funding liberal Democrats and funding the Washington establishment...” Cruz says, it’s very hard to assert that you will clean the stables of the capital.
On Trump’s statement that his companies use H1B visas, that’s true – but most of them come through his Trump Model Management business (and mostly did so in 2011). Model Alexia Palmer has been suing the agency since 2014 for failing to pay her the salary listed on the H1B application.
Another big user of H1B visas is youngest son Eric, who is responsible for seven H1B applications as part of Eric Trump Wine Manufacturing. Trump wine is manufactured in Virginia; it is not, however, manufactured by Trump Industries.
Guardian columnist Lucia Graves is watching the proceedings.
Did someone put something in the water this debate? The candidates’ answers have been uncommonly substantive and focused on policy. Trump, in particular, appears intent on having a more mature debate this time around, as evidenced by his opening statement, which sounded uncommonly prepared.
After a news cycle that has focused on the anger and violence present at his rallies, Trump argued that people are voting for him out of ‘enthusiasm’ and ‘love’. It’s an intelligent, if defensive, tack to take. And his first response to a question on trade was similarly well-marshalled – if arrogant – focusing on his superior bona fides on the subject as a businessman.
After a GOP debate that resorted to petty name-calling and Trump literally talking about his penis size, the new tone he seems to be cultivating tonight is a welcome reprieve. It makes you wonder what the race would look like if debates had looked like this all along – maybe Jeb! would still be on stage.
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Rubio: Trump's 'numbers don't add up'
CNN moderator Dana Bash points out to Trump that studies have found that waste in social security amounts to like $3bn, whereas budget overruns amount to $150bn. So you can’t satisfy the latter by eliminating the former.
Trump gives a non sequitur answer about North Korea and US defense protections for Japan and elsewhere.
Rubio gently prods Trump:
“The numbers don’t add up,” Rubio says. Eliminating fraud is a drop in the bucket. “The numbers don’t add up.”
Trump declines to reply. “I’ve never seen anything like it,” Trump says. He says the government does not negotiate with big Pharma. Or with defense contractors. He is asserting possession of a magic anti-waste wand that in a snap corrects the Pentagon and HHS budgets.
Trump is asked about his opposition to social security reform. How would he stop the system from going bankrupt?
“The Democrats are doing nothing with social security,” Trump says. “I will do everything within my power not to touch social security,” he says.
Getting rid of waste and corruption would solve the debt issue, Trump asserts.
“It’s my absolute intention to leave social security the way that it is,” he says.
Then he starts to riff or rant about China and “our jobs our gone” and “make America great again.”
Rubio is riffing on social security. He calls for delayed retirement to 68 years old. And for means testing for benefits. “These are not unreasonable changes to ask.”
He says for his generation the retirement age would be 68. But his children would retire at 70. “The people who are on it now, we don’t have to change it at all.”
He’s talking at once to the Republican fiscal hawks and the retired voters in Florida.
“Common core is a disaster,” Cruz says. As president, he says, he will order the department of education to end common core, the federal prescriptions for educational curricula, “that day.”
For good measure Cruz would “abolish the department of education.” He talks way through the 1:15 buzzer by getting started on school choice.
Kasich has called opposition to Common Core “Hysteria.” Does he stand by that?
Kasich says he’s into what works. He talks in detail about the Ohio model, by which local school boards set the standards. “We need to start connecting [kids] to the real world” with vocational education starting in seventh grade, he says.
Mentoring programs. Local control. High state standards. That’s Kasich’s recipe for educational success.
Trump says education has been “taken over by the bureaucrats in Washington” and they are not interested in what’s happening in Miami or Florida.
Trump announces Carson endorsement
This is a bran-flakes dry debate so far, in comparison with the sloppy recents.
Then Trump drops an exciting point:
“I was with Dr Ben Carson today, who is endorsing me by the way tomorrow morning.”
Cruz jumps in. He’s asked how many new permanent legal immigrants and guest workers should be in the United States. Instead of answering, he talks about punishing sanctuary cities and attacks the Democrats.
“We need instead leadership that works for the working men and women of this country,” Cruz says.
Rubio says he is “grateful every day that America welcomed” his father, but 60 years later, the primary criteria for bringing someone from abroad should be what skills do you have, what can you contribute.
Trump takes the H1-B question. “That’s something that I frankly use, and we shouldn’t be allowed to use, it’s very bad for workers.”
But, “I’m a businessman, and we have to do what we have to do.”
There’s a smattering of applause for Trump’s this-is-terrible-but-the-profit-motive-ties-my-hands argument.
Trump makes the bell with a full 95-second response.
“I’d maybe be running for president of Croatia if we didn’t have immigration,” Kasich says.
Don’t tell Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović.
Rubio is asked about supporting H1-B visa programs for foreign workers. Rubio says that companies have abused the program, and such companies should be prosecuted.
He says strict enforcement is needed, and the program cannot be used to replace American workers.
Rubio’s over the cold he had last week. He looks fresh. He seems a bit corkscrewed in this H1-B answer though, talking himself through multiple turns in the issue and risking getting turned around or turning viewers off.
Cruz is asked about his former support for Pacific trade deals. He says he opposed the Trans-Pacific partnership. “We’re driving people overseas,” Cruz says. He says the service industry also loses.
The candidates are answering these questions super-responsibly. No out-of-the gate punching against Trump this time. More bullet points and talking points.
Not even Cruz makes the 1:15 mark! Would’ve bet that he would’ve.
Rubio: “I support free-trade deals that are good for” the country. He points out that the world is full of potential consumers.
“I am in favor of deals... so that America can sell things to people around the world.” He says Florida has benefited from free trade with Columbia, especially flower dealers. But trade deals with Mexico have caused suffering.
“We can compete against anyone in the world.”
Kasich is the only one to have talked to full time. Trump stopped way short.
Trump is asked about manufacturing abroad and hiring foreign workers.
Will he run the country differently from how he runs his businesses.
Trump says “nobody knows the system better than me.” He says he can navigate the rules. Companies in the USA can’t compete, he says. “Nobody else from this dais knows how to change it like I do, believe me,” he says.
First question is on jobs.
Have trade deals been good for the American worker? Trump has said no.
But for Kasich: have you helped corporations by boosting for trade deals?
Kasich says 1 out of 5 Americans work in a job connected to trade. He calls for the somewhat anodyne free trade but fair trade. “We have to have an expedited process... when countries cheat and they take advantage of us, we need to blow the whistle.”
But, Kasich says, you can’t “lock the doors and pull down the blinds” on international trade.
Basically a call for trade deals, with policing.
Opening statements
Kasich: I looked in people’s faces. They want to be hopeful. Let’s transfer power and money to where you live. “New partnership.” The best century ever.
Rubio: Every election is important. This one is extra important. Our identity as a nation is at stake. We must make the right choice. Our children will be free. New American century.
Cruz: 59 years ago Florida welcomed my father. He was in the free-est land on the face of the Earth. This election is not about attacks. It’s about you and your children. Stop Washington.
Trump: The Republican party is growing. Millions are voting. Some have never voted before. We’re taking people from the Democrats. It’s very exciting. The Republican establishment or whatever you want to call it should embrace what’s happening. We’ll beat Clinton.
Tapper explains the rules. A bit of extra time to answer questions this round – a full 1:15 for each question. Tapper asks them not to talk over one another. Good luck.
And now the national anthem, by a group from the University of Miami called the Frost Singers. They’re good. Four-part harmony. Four candidates and four singers.
Here comes the high note. For the la-a-a-nd of the fuh-reee-Hee! They covered it in honey. Hit the extra octave with gas (honey?) to spare. Well done.
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The candidates are being introduced. There they are. Moderator Jake Tapper announces a moment of silence for late first lady Nancy Reagan.
From the comments / topics to chew on
Any chance we can get through this one without reference to genitalia?
If not, can the moderators at least start asking for some verification of whatever assertions might, um, arise?
Ladies and Gentlemen - The 'Circus' is about to begin!
Lock the children in their rooms, make some popcorn and get ready to be outraged and fall out laughing, too.
Who will Trump insult first?
Will Rubio still be fascinated by Trump's penis size?
Will Ted Cruz's head spin and starts talking in tongues?
Will John 'Doe' Kasich even be asked a question?
To these and other questions, stay tuned for the best comedy on American TV.
Republican debate about to begin
If you’re just joining us – welcome to our live coverage of the 12th Republican debate of the 2016 race for the White House.
The four candidates are meeting for the last time before voting in five states with about 350 delegates up for grabs on Tuesday.
The candidate to stop, as has been the rule, is Donald Trump. The candidates with the most to prove would seem to be Florida senator Marco Rubio, who won nary a delegate in voting this past Tuesday, and Ohio governor John Kasich, who is claiming momentum after a third-place finish in Michigan.
Both candidates go before the electorates in their home states on Tuesday, in contests that for the first time will award their entire slates of delegates to the victor. Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina also are in the mix.
Senator Ted Cruz remains the only Republican candidate to have won multiple states, apart from Trump. He received his first senatorial endorsement Thursday, from Mike Lee of Utah. Former Republican candidate Carly Fiorina endorsed him on Wednesday.
They’re about to begin. Thanks for joining us and may the best debater win!
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Reince Priebus, the Republican chairman, is onstage talking. “This party is going to support the nominee, whoever that is, 100%” he says. Why would he feel compelled to point that out?
As expected, 8.30pm ET – the advertised debate start time – has come and gone without the debate actually starting. Instead we are about to hear from Reince Priebus, the chair of the Republican National Committee. You can follow along with all this “action” on CNN.com.
Early Virgin Islands returns indicate unattached delegates headed for convention
Initial returns from the Republican convention in the Virgin Islands indicate even more uncertainty in the GOP’s presidential primary, writes Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs from Washington, DC:
With results in from the island of St. Thomas, initial numbers show a lead for three unpledged delegates as well as two pledged to Ted Cruz and one pledged to Donald Trump.
The limited electorate on the U.S. Virgin Islands, which will select six of the 2473 delegates to July’s Republican National Convention in Cleveland, is composed of residents of the islands of St. Croix and St. Thomas. The results from the more populous St. Croix are not yet in.
However, initial results made available to the Guardian showed that three of the six top vote getters in the Virgin Islands’ caucus are unpledged to any candidate. This means that these delegates are free to support any candidate they choose on the first ballot. In a potential contested convention, this means that these delegates have disproportionate influence as they would not be tied to any candidate on the first ballot.
Further, Rule 40b of the Republican Party currently states that candidates need to win the support of a majority of the delegations in eight different states or territories to have their name placed into nomination at a convention.
Party insiders have long assumed that the rule, implemented solely to block Ron Paul’s name from being placed into nomination in 2012, would be modified before the 2016 convention. However, if that doesn’t happen, unpledged delegates, combined with the territory’s three RNC members, would be able to form a majority of Virgin Islands’ delegation. This means they could potentially serve as one of the eight states needed for a candidate to have their name placed into nomination.
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Here’s video documenting the other headline violence today at a Trump rally. Last night a white Trump supporter sucker-punched a black protester at a rally in North Carolina. The puncher, John McGraw, said he thought the protester, Rakeem Jones, might have been a member of Isis.
Photograph: HANDOUT/Reuters
“The next time we see him, we might have to kill him,” McGraw told Inside Edition. “We don’t know who he is. He might be with a terrorist organization.”
“The police jumped on me like I was the one swinging,” Rakeem Jones, the protester, said. “It’s just shocking … I was basically in police custody and got hit.” The alleged puncher, John McGraw, was charged with assault and battery.
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CNN is advertising the debate as moments away. It’s more like a half hour, at the earliest.
Commenters: What should we talk about meanwhile? The Carson Trump endorsement? Or Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski – who denied today that he had physically aggressed a reporter, and then attempted to assassinate that reporter’s character by calling her an “attention seeker.”
This despite an audio recording, a photo of her bruises and an authoritative witness account.
Here’s an audio recording, first obtained by Politico, of a conversation between the reporter in question, Breitbart’s Michelle Fields, and colleague Ben Terris of the Washington Post, following the incident:
Here’s a picture Fields tweeted of her bruises following a Trump campaign statement that the allegation was “completely false”:
I guess these just magically appeared on me @CLewandowski_ @realDonaldTrump. So weird. pic.twitter.com/oD8c4D7tw3
— Michelle Fields (@MichelleFields) March 10, 2016
And here’s a bit of how Lewandowski himself responded on Twitter:
Michelle Fields is an attention seeker who once claimed Allen West groped her but later went silent. https://t.co/J86Ej42eYx
— Corey Lewandowski (@CLewandowski_) March 10, 2016
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Red indicates counties where Trump was the most-searched candidate on Google in the last week. Both most-famous and most-searched – that’s traction:
A wall display at the Republican debate in Miami reveals the Trump obsessed nation. Room to flee in Alaska though. pic.twitter.com/5SrV65BdsK
— Dan Roberts (@RobertsDan) March 11, 2016
Former top Carson operative: 'a lot of Dr. Carson fans will be heartbroken' by endorsement of Trump
Terry Giles, an old Ben Carson friend through the Horatio Alger Association who was instrumental to building Carson’s campaign and fundraising operations before being sidelined last fall in internal campaign disputes, said in a statement mailed to the Guardian that he was “completely surprised and disappointed” at the news that Carson planned endorsement of Trump.
“Let’s hope it is just a bad rumor, otherwise a lot of Dr. Carson fans will be heartbroken,” Giles said. Here’s his full statement:
I am completely surprised and disappointed--if it is true. If so, it sounds like a typical political move where Mr. Trump was the highest bidder. It certainly cannot be because Ben and Donald are in alignment on the issues, politically or spiritually. Let’s hope it is just a bad rumor, otherwise a lot of Dr. Carson fans will be heartbroken.”
With Ben Carson wanting to hit his mother on head with a hammer, stab a friend and Pyramids built for grain storage - don't people get it?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 6, 2015
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Hello, and welcome …
… to our live-wire coverage of the 12th Republican debate in the 2016 race for the White House.
This race feels like it’s about to change, a lot. If Donald Trump dominates voting this coming Tuesday – some 350 delegates are at stake in five big states, including the home states of two Trump rivals – the nomination could effectively be his.
The job of the three candidates onstage with Trump tonight – senators Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and Ohio governor John Kasich – is to try to make something happen that could dampen Trump’s prospects in Ohio, Florida and elsewhere.
Anyone who doubts on principle that it could happen might talk to Rubio about his collapse in support after New Jersey governor Chris Christie torched him at a New Hampshire debate last month.
On the other hand, Trump’s rivals have been trying to knock him off balance for months, and that hasn’t worked.
Guardian Washington bureau chief Dan Roberts and politics reporter Sabrina Siddiqui are at the scene of the debate at the University of Miami. We’ll have comment along the way from bright lights Megan Carpentier, Lucia Graves and Jeb Lund.
Host network CNN says it will start at 8.30pm ET but they’ve been known to fib about start times to lure viewers for longer. Tsk, tsk.
Last time we did this, just one week ago, Rubio and Cruz tag-teamed Trump while Kasich tried to score points as the one above the fray. Then Rubio failed to win a single delegate in voting this past Tuesday, and said he regretted having indulged in Trump-style insult artistry. Cruz won in Idaho and did not express any such regret.
Carson to endorse Trump
There’s some breaking news as we go to press: retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who dropped out of the race last Friday, will endorse Trump in an appearance in Florida tomorrow.
The pair haven’t always been simpatico. In a riff once on Carson’s description of his childhood temper as “pathological”, Trump drew a child molester comparison. Water under the bridge now, it appears.
Ben Carson should lend some coherence to Trump's policy prescriptions.https://t.co/oDumnIDmec
— Jon Ralston (@RalstonReports) March 11, 2016
Thanks a lot for joining us this evening, and as always, please pitch in in the comments with who you think is up, who’s down and who’s next on the way out. Twelfth time’s a charm!
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Pretty boring debate!!! Trump win simply because the others need a knockout and really just not alot happened.
Carson endorsement main story of the day.