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The Guardian - US
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Tom McCarthy

Republican debate: Las Vegas fight night was rollicking from start to finish

Republican debate highlights: tough talk on terror, Isis and the NSA

Summary

The fifth Republican presidential debate of the 2016 cycle is in the can. Here’s what we learned:

  • It was long on substance. Candidates were asked about national security issues, immigration policy, government surveillance and naughty things the candidates have said about each other on the campaign trail.
  • Florida senator Marco Rubio and Texas senator Ted Cruz locked horns over Rubio’s support for immigration reform and Cruz’s support for reining in NSA surveillance. Both fought expertly. No clear winner declared.
  • Donald Trump said he had no plan to run as a third-party candidate. “I am totally committed to the Republican party,” Trump said.
  • Former Florida governor Jeb Bush repeatedly attacked Donald Trump, calling him the “chaos candidate” and saying “You’re not going to insult your way to president of the United States.”
  • Was it such a fight-y night? Not really – neither Cruz nor Rubio, nor New Jersey governor Chris Christie, opted to tangle with Trump, who himself passed on an invitation to hit Cruz.
  • Christie did, however, call president Obama a “feckless weakling.”
  • Did Trump botch a question about the country’s triad of nuclear defenses, sub-plan-silo? He didn’t answer a Q about which needed updating most urgently.
  • Rubio left the door open on a path to citizenship for some undocumented migrants, a heresy in some corners of the party. “I personally am open to people having the possibility of applying for a green card,” he said – after 10 years’ probation and strict tests.
  • Rand Paul, the Kentucky senator, did go after Trump, who he said wanted to shred the constitution. Trump pretty much ignored him.
  • A substantive big-picture debate broke out over whether it’s better for the US national security to have dictators in the Middle East. Also unresolved.
  • Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina quoted Thatcher: “Margaret Thatcher once said, if you want something talked about, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman.”

And here’s our full report from Sabrina Siddiqui and Paul Lewis on the ground in Las Vegas:

Updated

Google gauges real-time search activity for the candidates over the course of the debate. Trump rode high even through the prelude debate.

Internet #hottakes. Add yours?

Talk times: Roughly in line with national polling strength, with the notable exception of Christie who punched a bit above his weight.

Democratic challenger Bernie Sanders was watching tonight – and didn’t recognize the country in the onstage conversation:

Something else that didn’t get mentioned, courtesy of our business reporter (and most clever chart-maker of the night) Jana Kasperkevic:

Updated

Who won the Cruz-Rubio faceoff?

And how did Ben Carson pronounce the name of RNC chair Reince Priebus?

There’s more where that came from, folks. Hie thee to Ben Jacob’s Twitter feed for a comprehensive collection of the boldface questions emerging tonight as the microphones onstage begin to cool.

Trump on Clinton: 'She's going to fall'

More from Trump in his ongoing interview with Chris Cuomo on CNN: ‘I haven’t really focused on Hillary. When I do she’s going to fall.’

Also, too:

Updated

Trump: “I get along with Ted very well actually. I just think he was very nice, and very respectful, and I have a lot of respect for Ted.”

Trump is being interviewed after the debate. He calls the debate “one of my better ones.”

#factcheck: why not

It’s over! Who won?

Closing statements

Paul: The greatest threat to national security is our debt. It’s both parties’ fault. [Cough] We are not a stronger nation if we go further into debt. I’m the only one on this stage who will hold the line on spending. [Rabid cheers]

Kasich: You have to win Ohio to win the White House if you are a Republican. The people of Ohio are the people of America. Connect with heads and hearts. We will beat Hillary Clinton. [some applause]

Christie: I lost touch with my wife and brother for six hours on 9/11 and many friends and neighbors were killed. Terrorism is real. I have already protected the country. I want the chance to do it again. I will protect America. [generic applause]

Fiorina: I remember 9/11 too. We had to put in place security measures around the world. We have to begin by beating Hillary Clinton. We need to unify our party. We need to beat Hillary Clinton. I can.

Bush: Ask yourself: Which candidate will keep you and the country safer, stronger, freer. I have a proven record as governor. I don’t make false promises. Keep America safe. Vote Bush. [some applause]

Rubio: This is the most important election in a generation. But millions of Americans feel left behind. This election is about restored economic vibrancy. Rebuild the military. New American century Vote Rubio. [applause and some whistles but the crowd just sounds tired]

Cruz: America can win again and we will win again. Ronald Reagan was awesome. I will be too. Cutting taxes. Stronger military. Simple strategy: We win, they loose. [passing applause]

Carson: I’ve been to 58 countries. USA is #1. Mother said if I work hard anything is possible. I believe it’s true. Political correctness bad. [applause-ish]

Trump: Our country doesn’t win anymore. Military, trade, Isis, vets, health care. Nothing works in our country. If I’m elected president we will win again and we’re going to have a great great country greater than ever before.

Trump: 'I am totally committed to the Republican party'

Trump is asked whether he will last as a Republican:

I really am. I’ll be honest. I really am. I’ve gained great respect for the Republican leadership. I’ve gained great respect... in different forms for the people I’ve met on this dais.

I am totally committed to the Republican party. I feel very honored to be the frontrunner. If I am nominated I think I will do very well.

Carson says the same. He says Priebus told him the Washington Post / Robert Costa report about the Republican meeting about what to do if Trump was nominated was inaccurate. He believes Priebus. Sure!

From Guardian US columnist Richard Wolffe:

Trump said that the biggest problem facing the world is a nuclear weapon in the hands of a madman, or a maniac – an important distinction in today’s politics, and one to which voters should give serious consideration.

He also assures us that the devastation of a nuclear weapon is very personal to him: a sentiment shared by much of humanity, to be sure.

Trump is asked about calling Cruz a maniac. Trump makes nice.

I got to know him over the last three or four days. He has a wonderful temperament. He’s just fine, don’t worry about it.

Kind of laughter and applause.

The question flips to Cruz. Cruz is asked about what he said behind closed doors questioning Trump’s judgment. Cruz says he will say the same in public as he said in private.

Then he doesn’t say anything about Trump. Starts talking about his daughters, Reagan and communism.

Cruz is way far afield by now. Dana Bash reins him in. Is Trump qualified?

Anyone up here, says Cruz, would be infinitely more qualified.

Cruz keeps talking. Blitzer tries to cut in. “I’m answering the question, Wolf!”

“We”. “They”. “China”. “Triad”. Anybody heard the words “female voters” recently? Here’s more from data editor Mona Chalabi:

Aside from an opening statement by Carly Fiorina about being called “every b-word in the book” (I know, we’re confused too), it’s starkly clear: women’s issues have been have been absent from more than two hours of debate so far.

That’s partly because not all candidates depend on those female Republican voters to help them edge up in the polls.

Donald Trump’s latest rise in the polls has been largely due to rising support among men, according to an analysis released on Tuesday by the Washington Post and ABC News. Compared to a month ago, Trump has risen 17 points among male Republicans.

By contrast, however, some of the recent rise of Cruz (I know, we’re confused by that bro-mance onstage just now too) could be attributable to the fact that the Texas senator has jumped up 16 points among women.

women voters republicans
The truth about female voters and the GOP Photograph: Mona Chalabi for the Guardian

Rubio takes the question on the triad-- planes, missile silos and nuclear subs. He gives a little course on the country’s nuclear defenses. Does not really prioritize one.

Q for Trump: What’s your priority among your nuclear triad?

Trump: We need someone who can be totally trusted. Well, I called Iraq “very strongly. We have to be extremely vigilant and extremely careful when it comes to nuclear.”

“The biggest problem we have today is not president Obama with global warming,” he says... [It’s] having some madmen go out and get a nuclear weapon.

From Guardian US columnist Richard Wolffe:

From the party that was once led by a “compassionate conservative”, Rand Paul said that refugees shouldn’t expect to get government-funded housing. And John Kasich lamented the arrival of 10 disruptive Central American minors in his own state when he couldn’t track them.

This party has traveled a long way from the Bush era in the last seven years.

And then finally, the real threat to national security: Hillary Clinton’s private email server. Jeb! somehow tried to thread a needle with China, Isis and the media – it’s hard to tell who is the greater challenge for the next President of the United States, I guess.

Updated

Christie is asked about his threatened cyber war on China.

He says China hides business from its people. He says he would reveal the corrupt workings of the Chinese government to the Chinese people. He accuses Obama of a lack of response to Chinese cyber-attacks.

Bush is asked whether all that is a good idea. “I completely agree with Chris,” Bush says. “Think about it. Secretary Clinton uses a private server.”

“We have to have the best defensive capabilities,” Bush says. “We need to create a situation that they know that there will be adverse impacts... They’ll respect that.”

Fiorina is asked how she would confront North Korea’s Kim Jung-Un.

She says we need to isolate him with China’s support. She says she’s done business there for 25 years and China is worried about North Korea too.

Carson says that North Korea is on hard times and “we should use our economic power in a lot of different ways.” Then he switches to Putin and then energy exports. “We need to be doing lots of other things with the resources that we have.”

Commercial break. Blitzer again: “We’re only just beginning.”

#factcheck: eight Pinnochios, disappointed head-shakes and a zerbert.

Are-we-there-yet analysis: so how's Trump doing?

From political reporter Ben Jacobs, who has been on the trail with Trump’s campaign since the beginning, here are a few thoughts on how Trump is doing so far by way of a bar in Iowa ... a mere two hours into this thing.

Donald Trump is giving inarticulate answers, whether that response about shutting down the internet or continuing to peddle discredited conspiracy theories about 9/11. But he’s still having a strong debate.

While Trump was a target of strong attacks from rivals like Jeb Bush and Rand Paul, he has given one of his most confident and controlled performances of any of the five debate so far. This kind of stage is not Trump’s strength. After all, it’s hard for him to give his spellbinding stream-of-consciousness monologues with a strict time limit on each answer and a tough moderator.

Still: has he really lost much ground?

The one troubling sign for Trump is the continued fade of fellow political outsider Ben Carson. The mogul has long benefited from being on the same stage as the neurosurgeon, who may know even less about foreign policy than Trump does. At the Republican Jewish Coalition in Washington last week, Trump briefly captured attention by making borderline anti-Semitic jokes about the attendees. Then Carson spoke and repeatedly pronounced the name of the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas like it was the chickpea-based dip “hummus”.

If Carson eventually drops out of the race, Trump will be the only political neophyte on stage and his inexperience will be even more exposed. In the meantime, Trump continues to lead in the polls ... and nothing that has happened in Las Vegas tonight is likely to change that in the near future.

From Guardian US columnist Lucia Graves, here’s yet more on that Trump-Bush showdown:

The Bush-v-Trump sparring continued late into the debate, with round three kicked off by Trump’s incessant whining about how CNN had conducted itself earlier in the undercard debate. (Apparently Trump felt that CNN had posed too many unflattering questions about him. It was all “Mr. Trump said this. Mr. Trump said that,” according to Trump, who added: “I thought it was very unfair ... very unprofessional.”)

That gave Bush an opening. “The simple fact is if you think this is tough and this is unfair, imagine what it’s going to be like dealing with Putin or dealing with President Xi. Or dealing with the Islamic terrorism that exists. This is a tough business running for president!”

“You’re a tough guy Jeb,” Trump retorted. Then Bush, instead of rolling over as he usually would, carried on with his earlier attacks about Trump insulting his way to the top.

Trump didn’t miss a beat. “Well let’s see,” replied Trump. “So far I’m at 42 and you’re at 3 [percent].”

“Doesn’t matter,” declared Bush. “Doesn’t matter.”

“You started out over here Jeb,” Trump continued, gesticulating far in one direction. “You’re moving over further and further. Pretty soon you’re going to be off the end.”

Somewhere, this exact conversation is being carried out on a preschool playground. But John Kasich jumped in just as it was getting especially good (read: dumb) with entreaties to play nice. “All the fighting and arguing is not advancing us,” said Kasich.

Talk about a killjoy.

Updated

Kasich takes the same question. He says that in Ohio he has balanced security risks and the need to take refugee cases. In any case, he says, the vetting process for relocated people is insufficient.

“People have accused me at times of having too big of a heart. But we can.. take a pause” on refugees.

Facebook question: Doesn’t the Bible teach us to take refugees?

Christie: The first job of the president is to protect your safety and your security. I’m a former federal prosecutor. I know Jim Comey. When he says we can’t screen ‘em, that to me means, we can’t screen ‘em.

“The American people are screening to us that it’s our job to make this government work.”

We now know from watching the San Bernardino attacks that women can commit heinous acts just as well as men can do it.

Paul returns to the debate over Rubio’s record on immigration.

He says “on Marco’s bill, we had an opportunity” for a “trust but verify” amendment that would have strengthened border security.

Paul says Rubio was more sympathetic to Chuck Schumer and the president than he was to conservative principles. Buurn.

Rubio says the laws in place to screen refugees were sufficient, if implemented correctly. He says he takes border security and screening very seriously.

Carson just appears to have suggested a massive resettlement of people within Syria. We’ll look into that suggestion further if it starts to gain traction.

Now Fiorina tries to break in. She, Cruz and moderator Bash are speaking at once, with some Rubio mixed in for good measure.

Rubio and Cruz are deep, deep deep into the legislative-voting-record weeds on the immigration issue. Cruz keeps talking.

Bash asks Trump who is winning the debate. He ignores the question and says “build a wall.”

Santorum isn’t afraid to weigh in, from the wings:

Updated

Here’s data editor Mona Chalabi on Trump in beast-mode:

Trump has attacked CNN for the amount of questions that have begun with words from his own mouth, calling the debate so far “unprofessional”.

That’s either disingenuous or a misplaced frustration.

Several of Trump’s rises in the polls are precisely because of the excessive media attention he has received – bumps which have reinforced his position as simply one of the most easily recognised names on the ballot.

But Trump is right that his share of the limelight is disproportionate (at least it’s disproportionate relative to his support).

So far, Trump has received 54% of all media coverage so far, while his polls are averaging at 28%.

Cruz hits Rubio on the “Rubio-Schumer gang of eight bill.”

“Border security is national security,” he says. “We saw what happened in SanBernardino.” Cruz is looking to damage Rubio on national security for his position on immigration.

Cruz says “we will build a wall that works, and I’ll get Donald Trump to pay for it.”

Rubio replies: “Ted Cruz supported a 500% increase in H-1B visas and supported doubling the number of green cards.”

Cruz accuses Rubio of sowing confusion.

Rubio leaves door open on path to citizenship

Rubio: you co-authored a bill that had a path to citizenship. Do you still support that.

Rubio says immigration is an issue “I’ve lived around my whole life.” He repeats his usual defense, which is that “what we learned” in 2013 was that people don’t trust the federal government on immigration reform.

He describes a work permit for people who have no criminal record after ten years. Then he says, “I am personally open after all that, after 10 years, of probationary status....I personally am open to people having the possibility of applying for a green card.”

He acknowledges that it’s not a majority opinion in his party.

From Guardian US columnist Trevor Timm:

Rand Paul had the line of the night in response to Chris Christie, “If you’re in favor of World War III, I think you have your candidate.”

There have been a lot of insane things stated on the stage tonight, but the candidates competing over who would strike Russia militarily, a country with thousands of nuclear weapons, might take the cake. John Kasich said he would “punch Russia in the nose”; Fiorina said that she would set up a no fly zone and wouldn’t even tell Putin before hand; and Christie bragged about how he would absolutely shoot down Russian planes – like he’s looking forward to it.

Carson is asked whether he can command troops around the world based on his neurosurgery career.

“There’s a false narrative that only the political class has the wisdom and the ability to be commander in chief,” he says.

“I’ve had a lot of experience building things, organizing things. You know a national scholarship program... I don’t do a lot of talking I do a lot of doing.

Look and see what I’ve done, and that speaks volumes about strength.

Respectful applause.

Trump v Bush: Round Three ... fight!

Question for Bush: Are you qualified to deal with Putin in a way Trump is not?

“I know what I don’t know,” Bush says. And drawing a further contrast with Trump:

I won’t get my information from the shows. I don’t know if that’s Saturday morning or Sunday morning. I don’t know which one.

Bush says he will be “a commander in chief, not an agitator in chief.”

Trump: “I think it’s very sad that CNN leads Jeb Bush by starting off all the questions, Mr Trump this, Mr Trump this. I think it’s very sad.

I thought that it was very unfair that virtually the entire early portion was Mr Trump this, Mr Trump that. And just for ratings. I think it’s very unprofessional.

Bush: The simple fact is that if you think this is tough, and you’re running for president – this isn’t tough. This is a tough business.

Trump: Oh you’re a tough guy Jeb.

Bush: I’m– I’m

Trump: I’m at 42 and you’re at three!

Bush: Doesn’t matter. Doesn’t matter.

Trump: You started right here, now you’re over there, down on the end!

Updated

Christie: Obama a 'feckless weakling'

If there was a no-fly zone in Syria and Russia encroached, would you shoot it down?

Yes, he says. A no-fly zone is a no-fly zone. “Yes we would shoot down the planes of Russian pilots if they were stupid enough to think that this president is the same feckless weakling that we have in the White House.”

Paul replies: “I think that if you’re in favor of World War III then you have your candidate.” He says Christie has shown a lack of judgment. “Like someone who might want to shut down a bridge”. Whoop!

Updated

We’ve reached at least five mentions of “bad guy” or “bad guys” and counting, with who knows how long to go in this thing. Anyway, here’s Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi with some more common sense:

Donald Trump’s mentions of that infamous wall feel ill-timed during a debate that used the words “security” and “terrorist threat” pretty much interchangeably.

They are ill-timed comments, too: according to the Department of Homeland Security, illegal immigration across the US-Mexico border is at its lowest level since 1974.

Aside from the question of how much some wall might actually be needed, there are actual huge question marks about whether or not the project is even realistic. According to a report from the Government Accountability Office 2009, building just one mile of fencing at the border averages a cost of $2.8m-$3.9m.

Then there’s the upkeep. The Obama administration asked for $27m to maintain the fence that’s already there; Trump’s proposed wall would be nearly three times longer. All told, that infamous wall is a policy that analysts think would cost America billions of dollars.

Here’s another reality check from your blog host:

Kasich: time to 'punch the Russians in the nose'

Kasich: “Frankly it’s time that we punch the Russians in the nose. They’ve gotten away with too much in this world.”

Fiorina is asked about her stated policy of not talking to Putin

I didn’t say I would cut off all communication with Putin... I said that as president of the United States, now is not the time to talk to him.

We need to speak to him from a position of strength.

Paul gets off an answer that definitely, in the humbly objective opinion of this blogger, does not deserve the rabid screams of unconstrained delight that result. Some pro-Paul fanboys in the crowd, some anti-Trump trolls.

Trump : 'I think Assad is a bad guy. Very bad guy'

Expanding on that thought, Trump says, “we have to get rid of Isis first.”

Question for Christie: Is Donald Trump right?

Christie calls for a focus on priorities, and turns to the Iran deal. “Isis is created and formed because of the abuse that Assad and his Iranian sponsors have rained down on Sunnis in Syria.”

“We need to focus our attention on Iran, because if you miss Iran, you miss Isis.’

Blitzer and Cruz fight about who gets to speak. Blitzer wins? Cruz comes off as kind of jerky.

Question for Bush: Do you think the fall of Saddam was a good thing?

I think the lessons learned are that we need a strategy to get in, and a strategy to get out.

Obama “does not believe that American leadership in the world is a force for good,” Bush says.

Rand Paul, same question. “These are the fundamental foreign policy questions of our time,” he says.

Nicely summarized for your friendly neighborhood blogger! The candidates have engaged in a substantive, not quite to say inflected, debate on the big questions of foreign policy.

Question for Carson: Is the Middle East better off with dictators?

Carson: No one’s better off with dictators. But on an airplane, they say put your oxygen mask on first. We need oxygen now. Huh

Trump: There’s nothing to respond to. People feel differently.

What do we have now? We have nothing. Wounded warriors all over the place whom I love.

Trump is asked if America would be better off with dictators in the Middle East. “It’s not like we had victory,” he says. “It’s a mess.”

A protester speaks up and he’s booed again. Who’s booing him. Who are the anti-Trump elements in the hall?

“I my opinion we’ve spent $4t trying to topple various people, and frankly.. if we could’ve spent that $4tn in the United States, we would have been a lot better off.” He wants to spend it on roads and hospitals.

Fiorina points out that that’s what Obama says.

Question for Rubio: do you regret deposing Qaddafi?

Rubio says Qaddafi was going down and it was better to act sooner. He brings up Lockerbie and the Berlin cafe bombing of Marines.

He calls for working with imperfect governments in Jordan and Saudi Arabia, but if leaders such as Assad go “I will not shed a tear.”

Cruz articulates a fundamentally opposite world view, one less confident in America moving foreign leaders around like chess pieces.

This moderate rebel thing in Syria, Cruz says. “It’s like a purple unicorn, they never exist. These moderate rebels end up being jihadists.”

Kasich jumps in. He’s hot. Assad must go! he says.

Cruz argues for keeping Assad

They’re back. Question for Cruz about wanting Hussein, Qaddafi and Mubarak back.

“I believe in an America-first foreign policy,” Cruz says. The president is distracted from the central focus of keeping the people safe, he says.

He says it was a mistake to topple the government in Libya, which is now “a terrorist war zone run by jihadists.”

He says the White House helped topple Mubarak in Egypt. “We need to learn from history,” he says.

Now they want to topple Assad, he says. “The result will be Isis taking over Syria.”

Halftime analysis: Cruz v Rubio ... and Trump v Bush and Co

cruz rubio
The only two who weren’t after each other in the first hour or so. Photograph: David Becker/Reuters

From the room in Vegas, political reporter Sabrina Siddiqui offers a look at one tête-à-tête: Rubio v Cruz ...

The fireworks erupted early between Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, two first-term senators competing as the conservative alternative to frontrunner Donald Trump, over the issue of mass surveillance.

In the wake of terrorist attacks in San Bernardino, Rubio has pushed for restoring the National Security Agency’s phone and data collection programs – and attacked Cruz for voting in favor of the USA Freedom Act earlier this year. Asked by CNN’s Dana Bash if he regretted his vote to end the NSA’s bulk collection, Cruz said the reform bill had been mischaracterized.

“What the Obama administration keeps getting wrong is whenever anything bad happens, they focus on law-abiding citizens instead of focusing on the bad guys,” Cruz said of the agency’s dragnet surveillance. “When you had a terrorist, you could only search a relatively narrow slice of numbers, primarily landlines. The USA Freedom Act expands that, so we have the phones that terrorists are likely to use and the focus of law enforcement is on targeting the bad guys.”

Moderators then turned to Rubio, who voted against the USA Freedom Act and has dubbed NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden as a “traitor”. Rubio bluntly said Cruz was wrong, as were others who voted for the bill.

Painting a picture of a world in which radical jihadists are exploiting loopholes in the immigration system, Rubio said more tools were needed for intelligence gathering.

“This is not just the most capable, but the most sophisticated terror threat we have ever faced,” Rubio said.

Cruz responded by accusing Rubio of levying “false attacks” – and pointed to a column by influential conservative radio host Mark Levin siding with Cruz on the issue. Rubio, Cruz charged, was intentionally misleading the American public.

Kentucky senator Rand Paul, a vocal critic of the NSA, joined the exchanged to side with Cruz.

“Marco gets it completely wrong. We are not any safer through the collection of all Americans’ records,” Paul said. “In fact, I think we’re less safe. We get so distracted by all the information, we’re not spending enough time getting specific information on terrorists.”

Paul pivoted to attacking Rubio over his immigration record and as being in favor of “open borders.” The reference was to Rubio’s work on a comprehensive immigration reform bill.

Rubio, in response, continued to insist that the Cruz and Paul had weakened the country’s intelligence capabilities by backing surveillance reform.

And here’s Guardian US columnist Lucia Graves on that other looming bout of the evening: Jeb (!) v Trump ... not that he’s alone in the anti-Donald attacks.

After a debate that was supposed to be all about Cruz v Rubio, it’s Bush v Trump that’s come to the fore.

Bush is having one of his strongest debates – if not his only one – and it’s in no small part because he’s shown a willingness to go after Trump. After an exchange in which he refused to be talked over, he turned his attention to Trump’s bullying approach on the trail: “Donald, you’re not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency,” Bush said. “That’s not going to happen.” Then he segued into a lecture on leadership.

“Leadership is not about attacking people and disparaging people,” Bush began. “Leadership is about creating a serious strategy to deal with the threat of our time.” He argued he had laid out that strategy before the attacks in Paris and attacks in San Bernardino and he laid it out again for anyone who’d forgotten: “We need to increase our military spending; we need to deal wiht a no-fly zone in Syria; we need to focus on building a military that is second to none so that we can destroy Islamic terrorism.”

Then Trump proved his point about insulting his way to the top, by quipping: “With Jeb’s attitude we will never be great again.” No substance or anything, that was literally it.

Updated

Commercial break. “We’ve only just begun,” promises Blitzer.

So who won the Rubio-Cruz smackdown?

Who won the Trump-Bush smackdown?

Is that booing in the crowd against Trump for real or an RNC plant?

Is Rand Paul’s cold viral or bacterial?

Did Carson come across as stronger on foreign policy with his talk just then of doing whatever the “military experts” say?

How will Carly Fiorina’s Thatcher quote about women being superior leaders play with her party?

Christie channels frustration in his audience with arguments over who voted for which amendment. He says that as an executive he has been held accountable by the people.

Carson is asked about his anti-Isis policy: “I’ve been talking about this for over a year. We have to destroy their caliphate ... we have to take their energy. ... We have to cut off their command centers.”

“We’ve got a phobia about boots on the ground. If our military experts say we need boots on the ground, we should put boots on the ground.”

Which experts again?

Fiorina: 'If you want something done, ask a woman'

Fiorina says “talking tough is not the same as being strong.” She says “first-term senators who have never made an executive decision in their life” don’t belong in leadership positions.

Then she quotes Thatcher:

Margaret Thatcher once said, if you want something talked about, ask a man. If you want something done, ask a woman.

Question for Rubio: How are we going to get real coalition partners in the fight against Isis?

Rubio stays focused on Obama. He seems above the lateral fighting going on onstage, despite the exchanges with Cruz.

Republicans gang up on Trump

Now Paul is attacking Trump. This group attack on Trump is actually finally coming true.

Paul says closing the Internet would end the first amendment and killing families of Isis members would require withdrawing from the Geneva conventions.

“Think, do you believe in the Constitution? Are you going to change the constitution?” Paul asks.

“So they can kill us, but we can’t kill them?” Trump says. Trump’s idea for the Internet is to just close it regionally... like zip code to zip code? apparently.

He’s booed, again. Trump is booed and booed.

“I just can’t imagine somebody booing,” he says. “These are people who want to kill us, folks.”

Updated

Carson is asked whether he could wage war as commander-in-chief. Is he tough enough? Or is he too nice?

“You have to understand that it’s actually merciful if you go ahead and finish the job,” Carson says.

Hewitt presses him: But would you be capable of indiscriminately killing a bunch of kids?

HE’s booed.

Hewitt reframes: “Can you be as ruthless as Churchill was in prosecuting the war against the Nazis?”

Ruthless is not the word, Carson says. He’s applauded.

From Guardian US opinion editor Megan Carpentier:

Though multiple candidates have insisted at this debate that the only reason we aren’t monitoring social media more intently to protect national security is “political correctness”, some statistics from 2011 – after which Facebook has grown a bunch – offers some other reasons way.

Every 60 seconds in 2011, Facebook users posted 82,000 status updates, 135,000 photos and 510,000 comments, and sent 231,000 messages.

Bush: 'Donald, you’re not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency'

Bush gets into it with Trump.

Two months ago Donald Trump said this is not our fight, Bush says. “And he gets his foreign policy experience from the shows. That is not a serious kind of candidate.”

“He’s a very nice person,” Trump says of Bush. But we need toughness.

Bush interrupts.

Trump: ‘Am I talking or are you talking, Jeb?’

“I’m talking,” says Jeb.

“I know you’re trying to build up your energy, Jeb, but it’s not working,” Trump says.

“Donald, you’re not going to be able to insult your way to the presidency, that’s not going to happen,” Bush says.

Updated

Once more from data editor Mona Chalabi, with facts:

Trump is suggesting that American can prevent terrorists from using the internet. That could be tricky.

There are 3.2bn internet users in the world, according to the United Nations International Telecommunications Union (since 87% of Americans have internet access, the US only accounts for 300 million of those internet users).

Oh, and if you’re wondering about internet speeds while you’re reading this on a screen somewhere in America, the US has the 15th fastest broadband speed in the world - behind Finland, Portugal and Norway.

Question for Trump: How do you kill the family of Isis members if you want to be set apart from Isis?

“We have to be much tougher, we have to be much stronger than what we’ve been,” Trump says.

He says after 9/11, “people were put into planes and they were sent back to Saudi Arabia.”

“I would be very very firm with families,” he says.

This Rubio-Cruz back and forth is ongoing. Fairly evenly fought.

Question for Rubio about his criticism of Cruz on Isis.

Rubio says American operators must be embedded alongside Sunni fighters on the ground to improve the accuracy of air strikes.

“And beyond that, we must win the information war against Isis,” Rubio says. “We have to show what life is really like within Isis territory.”

Follow-up: You accused Cruz of voting against defense authorization act, which is a bill that funds the troops.

Rubio says he has to assume that Cruz would also veto such legislation as president, “and if we continue those cuts, we are going to be left with the oldest and smallest air force we have ever had.”

Cruz says he voted against the act, because the federal government should not have the authority to detain citizens with no due process.

Isis and radical Islamic terrorism will face no greater adversary than me, Cruz says.

Question for Cruz: You’ve said you’d carpet-bomb Isis. Would you level Raqqa, Syria, where there are hundreds of thousands of civilians?

Cruz says it means “saturation bombing” on the level of the first Gulf War, with 11,000 air attacks a day.

He accuses Obama of “photo op foreign policy.”

“It’s not a lack of competence that is stopping the Obama administration – it is political correctness.” He says the same is true for San Bernardino, the Boston marathon and Ft Hood.

Follow up: Would you carpet-bomb Raqqa?

Cruz says you don’t carpet bomb a city, but where the troops are. He seems to neglect the possibility – the reality – that the fighters are mixed with civilians.

Trump doesn’t “want them using our internet”? Data editor Mona Chalabi has a much smarter look at the truth beyond the rhetoric:

Whatever you think about Donald Trump’s call to ban Muslims from immigrating to the US, it’s important to remember it’s an idea that’s widely supported. According to a Washington Post-ABC news poll earlier this month, 25% of all respondents (not just Republicans) strongly support Trump’s idea and a further 11% said they supported the idea “somewhat”.

And you had better believe that rhetoric connecting Muslims with national security will resonate well with Trump’s supporters tonight. Statistically, the two are tied together – the more likely a respondent is to say that Muslims are an “immediate” threat to the USA, the more likely they are to vote for Trump.

Similarly, people who say “most” Muslims support ISIS are much more likely to support Trump according to a survey by YouGov and The Economist last month.

chart
YouGov Photograph: YouGov

From Guardian US columnist Jeb Lund:

Fiorina is now advocating the surprisingly anti-Libertarian message that the federal government should finally have the right to be just as controlling and invasive of citizens’ private lives as employers are of their employees’.

Trump: stop Isis from using 'our Internet'

Trump is asked about his call to “close the Internet up” to stop Isis. His answer implies an interesting understanding of the internet:

“This is so easy to answer,” he says. “Isis is using the Internet better than we are using the Internet, and it was our idea.

“I do not want them to use our Internet to take our young, impressionable people,” he says.

He says “we should be using the most brilliant minds” to stop Isis from using the Internet.

Follow-up question: But are you open to closing parts of the Internet?

I sure as hell don’t want people that want to kill us use our Internet. Yes I am.

Fiorina is asked whether tech companies should be forced to help crack encryption. Apple CEO Tim Cook and others have told the government to take a hike.

Fiorina points out that the Boston marathon attack and others was not a metadata failure -- the suspects were to some extent known. But she says the country used the “wrong algorithm.”

She criticizes homeland security for not checking the social media of the San Bernardino suspects before admitting them. “Every parent in America” surveils social media, she says.

“They do not need to be forced, they need to be asked to bring the best and brightest to the table.

“That’s why it cost billions of dollars to build a web site that failed.”
Applause.

Are we at the commercial break yet? And where’s Trump? Guardian US columnist Lucia Graves with a bit on early Jebbery, between a lot of bluster on the NSA and “technology”:

Bush came out swinging early in the Republican debate. When a moderator brought up that time he called Trump “unhinged” in response to Trump’s comments about banning all non-American Muslims from the country, Jeb stood by the insult. “Donald is great at the one-liners,” Jeb said, “but he’s a chaos candidate and he’d be a chaos president.”

“Jeb doesn’t believe that I’m unhinged,” Trump responded. “He’s said because he’s failed at his campaign.”

It’s a line straight out of Marco Rubio’s playbook. In a previous debate when Bush attacked him he hit back by saying, essentially, Bush didn’t believe that, some consultant told him to say it.

If history’s any indication, the political points will go squarely to Trump. They sure went to Rubio.

Meanwhile ... “The main thing we should be focused on is the strategy”: is this ... a real debate?

Updated

From Guardian US columnist Richard Wolffe:

It was a power move by Chris Christie to talk to the camera, but it’s strange that he doesn’t refer to his executive position as governor of a state, just his time as a prosecutor.

The Bush-era national security officials used to say this was a pre-9/11 mindset: the idea of suing terrorists rather than invading another country.

Bush is asked whether his brother’s words as president, about Islam as a religion of peace, are still relevant.

“They are relevant if we want to destroy Isis... we can’t disassociate ourselves from peace-loving Muslims,” Bush says.

He says the USA needs to destroy Isis and it requires leadership. Fund the military. Destroy Isis there. “That’s how you keep America safe.”

Blitzer asks Carson who was right between Rubio and Paul. Carson says he doesn’t want to get between them.

Q for Carson about monitoring. “First of all just let me complain a little bit,” he says. He hasn’t gotten to speak enough.

Then his answer on surveillance of mosques and other sites: “Let’s get rid of all of the PC stuff.” He says the Muslim Brotherhood “takes advantage of our PC attitude.”

Guardian US columnist Trevor Timm – an actual expert on surveillance and the NSA – chimes in, and not for the first time after that whole back-and-forth:

Carly Fiorina just described how, as Hewlett Packard CEO (where she was universally derided as a disaster), she turned a truckload of computers around and sent it straight to the NSA after 9/11.

Put aside the fact that the American public expressed outright disgust toward secret collusion around mass surveillance between tech companies and the government after the Snowden revelations. Fiorina’s inference that she can persuade tech companies to install backdoor encryption “because she knows them” shows how little she actually knows about technology.

Persuasion is not the issue here, technical impossibility is – as virtually every computer scientist will tell you. Until politicians wrap their heads around that, we will continue to see the same technically ignorant statement come out of their mouths.

Christie says his eyes have glazed over. “Endless debates about how many angels dance on a head of a pin by people who have never had to make these decisions in an executive position.”

He says that in New Jersey he prosecuted terror cases and stopped a plot against Fort Dix by using the Patriot Act to gather intelligence.

This is a difference between doing something, Christie says, and being “one of a hundred who spend their lives debating it.”

Paul hits Rubio on support for immigration reform

Rand Paul, who definitely has a cold, says metadata collection just produces too many records and we can’t read them all. He says border security and checks are more important than bulk collection.

Paul says that Rubio “is the weakest of all the candidates on immigration.” Finally a rival calls out Rubio at a debate for his relative moderation on the immigration issue.

“Marco has more of an allegiance to Chuck Schumer and to liberals than to conservatives and policy,” Paul says. The same group that has been cheering him loudly cheers him again.

Rubio answers as smoothly as is his wont and wins what sounds like less zealous but more robust support.

Q for Rubio: You voted against the Freedom Act. Why?

Rubio says, radical jihadism is increasingly sophisticated. “This is not just the most capable, it is the most sophisticated threat we have ever faced.”

Rubio says the Freedom Act ended crucial metadata collection – not true, the “crucial” bit or the “ended” bit, many observers say.

Cruz says that Rubio knows he’s lying because the act allowed broader metadata sweeping of phone records.

Rubio says he should be careful because it’s highly classified but, he says, the bill took away a valuable tool that allowed NSA and others to match up phone records.

Point Rubio? Even if he is making it up? He sounds confident.

Updated

Q for Cruz. You voted for the USA Freedom Act which moved phone records to phone companies.

Cruz: That’s an inaccurately premised question. The act ended collection of bulk collection of metadata on law-abiding citizens. But also “gave us greater tools” to go after terrorists.

Cruz says the prior program allowed for only a narrow slice of phone records that could be searched, but the USA Freedom act “expanded that.”

We’ll be fact-checking that for you.

Meantime: “bad guys”.

Updated

Q for Kasich. How do you find an attacker like Farook who was a US citizen on no watch list?

Kasich answers, Troops on the ground, like we had in the first Gulf war. The Saudis have organized 34 countries to fight terrorism.

His answer to the question of how to block a homegrown terrorist is to fight Isis in Syria. Wait there’s more. The joint terrorism task force needs tools to break encryption, he says. “We have to give law enforcement the ability to listen,” he says.

Q for Christie. It’s about the LA school closures. Is this the new normal?

Christie says “unfortunately it’s the new normal under Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.”

Christie continues to be the most dependable Republican candidate for bringing up Clinton in debates.

He says “everywhere in America is a target for these terrorists.” He invokes his work as a prosecutor to “keep America safe.” He says we need to “restore those tools to the NSA” and the “entire law enforcement community.”

Question for Fiorina. Is keeping people out a good thing for the GOP to stand for?

FIorina says people are looking for solutions. She digs at Trump, not by name but criticizing “entertainers” seeking “attention.”

She tells us that the iphone was invented in 2007 and the ipad was invented in 2011 and technology has moved on and so have terrorists.

Then she tells a story about getting a phone call from NSA and turning “a truckload of equipment around”. She says she “helped after 9/11”.

Which, yeah: kinda, maybe.

Updated

Question for Cruz. How do you disagree with Trump’s Muslims ban?

Everyone understands why Donald has made the suggestion he has, Cruz says. It’s because Obama engages in doublespeak on the terror issue.

Cruz immediately turns to trashing the Syrian refugees as un-vettable. “I understand why Donald made that proposal,” Cruz says.

I’m reminded of what FDR’s grandfather said... All horse thieves are Democrats, but not all Democrats are horse thieves... there are millions of Muslims in countries across the world, in places like India,” that do not present a terror threat, he says.

Applause for Cruz.

Rubio is asked about a poll showing a majority of Republicans support Trump’s proposal for a ban on Muslims. Rubio has opposed the proposal.

Rubio says he understands why people feel that way. He calls Isis the most sophisticated terror group America has ever faced. He says Isis has spread to Libya, Afghanistan, Yemen and Jordan.

“The president has left us unsafe,” Rubio says.

Trump is booed! For attacking Bush. This crowd seems against Trump [corrects typo].

Trump says Bush called him unhinged because Bush’s campaign is going poorly while Trump’s campaign, in contrast, is great.

Bush jumps back in and says “we need a strategy.”

He calls the Muslim ban “not a serious proposal. We need a serious leader to deal with this, and I believe I’m that guy.”

Updated

Bush: Trump 'is a chaos candidate'

trump bush
Wooden no more! (Well, at least with the prepared lines.) Photograph: Mike Blake/Reuters

Q for Bush: Why is a plan to ban Muslims unhinged?

Bush: We need to destroy Isis in the caliphate. We need to embed out troops inside the Iraqi military.

“If we are going to ban all Muslims, how are we going to get them to be part of a coalition to fight Isis?”

Bush points out that the Kurds are Muslims.

Donald is great at the one-liners, but he is a chaos candidate, and he would be a chaos president.

Updated

Trump: 'I will build a wall, it will be a great wall'

First Q is for Trump. About his proposed ban on Muslim entries to USA as well as his plan for a wall in the south.

Is isolation a good plan?

We’re not talking about isolation, we’re talking about security, he says. Our country is out of control.

I will build a wall, it will be a great wall,” he says.

Opening statements

Paul: Trump says ‘we ought to close that internet thing.’ That’s like North Korea. Rubio says we should collect Americans’ records. The constitution says that’s wrong. [Paul has a pretty solid cold? It sounds like he has a clothespin on his nose.] “I think if we want to defeat terrorism, we need to quit arming the allies of Isis, he says. How long are these opening statements. There it is, bell. Today is the Bill of Rights’ anniversary. Big cheering section for Paul.

Kasich: My daughter does not like politics because there’s too much loud fighting. She’s right. People need jobs and rising wages. We’ll never get there if we’re divided. We need to unify as Americans. Less applause for Kasich.

Christie: America has been betrayed. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton did it. The second-largest school district in America closed based on a threat. The kids will be “filled with anxiety.” Think about the mothers. Think about the fathers, who tomorrow will head off to work. What has Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton done to the country? I’m a former federal prosecutor, I beat terrorists, I will as president.

Fiorina: Like all of you I’m angry. Citizens, it’s time to take our country back. Bombast and insults won’t take it back. All of our problems can be solved... by a tested leader who is willing to fight. I have beaten breast cancer, I have buried a child. I fought my way to the top of corporate America while being called every B-word in the book. [Bitch? what else? -ed.] It is time to take our country back.

Bush: Our freedom is under attack, the economy is underwater, the leading Democrat is under investigation and etc. Restore defense cuts. Restore economy by taking power from Washington DC. America is still exceptional. We support our friends. I’ll keep you safe, secure, and free.

Rubio: I have been blessed. But there are people in politics who want America to be like other countries. The 2008 winner was one of them. America’s influence is in decline. This election is important. I want you to vote for me. I believe America is the greatest country in the world. Applause! cheers.

Cruz: Thank you Wolf. America is at war. Our enemy is radical Islamic terrorism. We have a president who won’t say it. Any of us here on stage is better than Barack or Hillary. The first job of the CiC is to keep America safe. Kill terrorists, destroy Isis. Stop terrorists. Pause. Speaking slowly. Speak the truth. Border security is national security. We will not admit jihadists as refugees.

Carson: Thank you Wolf. Please join me for a moment of silence in memory of the San Bernardino victims. Our country goes to war every 10-15 years, but we have to win this one. It’s an existential deal. I have had to face a lot of life-and-death decisions. Right now the USA is the patient and the patient is in critical condition. Are you with me. I’m asking the Congress to declare war on Isis.

Trump: Thanks. I began this journey six months ago. The point was to build up the military and the borders and to make sure China Japan and Mexico no longer takes advantage of us. The Iran deal is horrible, disgusting, incompetent. Those things are things I’m very good at and maybe that’s why I’m center stage. People like what I say, people respect what I say, and we’ve opened up a very big discussion that needed to be opened up.

Updated

From US opinion editor Megan Carpentier:

Carly Fiorina’s opening statement started off well, and then she sort of went off the rails, declaring she’d been ‘tested’ for the presidency by being called ‘every B-word in the book’ and having breast cancer and burying a child and having started as a secretary and having people be mean about her candidacy.

But if people calling a woman a ‘bitch’ is part of qualifying for political power – and it might be – then every woman in the US over the age of about 12 is on the way to qualifying for the presidency.

And here’s one question for the comments below, from our political reporter in the room...

Updated

From Guardian US columnist Jeb Lund, comin’ atcha from the Vegas Strip:

The best part of Wolf Blitzer’s moderation is the over-emphasis he uses when stating that he actually is the moderator. ‘As moderator, I’ll guide the discussion,’ he said, welcoming us to the primetime debate with the sort of emphasis a child dressed like a fireman uses when saying, ‘I’m the fireman.’ This is the sort of Life As Tautology that only happens to you when you are that empty of a suit.

They’re already taking notes. They’re taking notes about Wolf Blitzer’s rules? Lots of red ties up there tonight. Fiorina in a red dress. Kasich and Carson in blue, it looks like.

Vocalist Ayla Brown is back, this time to sing the national anthem (before she sang God Bless America).

She’s good. CNN chryons her as a singer/entertainer.

There it is, o’er the la-and of the fuh-reee-ay-and the hooome of the brave – no sweat. Limitless range there.

Who gets the biggest applause? Rand Paul got a lot of kind of giddy yelping. Donald Trump sort of got razzed a bit? Not quite booed but jeered?

Rubio gets the applause win. Whistling and cheering. Rubio wins!

Here they come! They are:

  • Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
  • Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon
  • Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey
  • Ted Cruz, US senator from Texas
  • Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard
  • John Kasich, governor of Ohio
  • Rand Paul, US senator from Kentucky
  • Marco Rubio, US senator from Florida
  • Donald Trump, real estate developer and reality show star

The crowd is happily clapping now. The candidates are about to appear onstage.

Blitzer is back. “We’re moments away from the main event,” he says. They roll the promo montage again. It’s even more exciting the second time.

We’re still spying on them backstage. Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee share, just has greeted Trump with a biig smile. Ben Carson does too.

Where’s Cruz?

(h/t: @batterdippin)

Updated

There’s Chris Christie. We’re hanging out backstage with the candidates. There’s the back of Rand Paul’s head. Jeb Bush and Christie are exchanging pleasantries. Marco Rubio rolls in.

They’re ready. Are you?

It's time for the main event, live from Las Vegas!

Welcome back, straight from the Venetian in Las Vegas, where nine Republican presidential contenders are about to make the case for themselves as leaders on national security.

The undercard debate was dominated by discussion, following the terrorist attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, of how to take on the Islamic State group. Topics ranged from Donald Trump’s proposal to ban Muslims from entry to the United States to renewed surveillance on mosques and international phone traffic to the apparent need – or not – for US ground troops in Syria.

Now Trump himself is about to take the stage. Flanking him will be retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson – and his strongest challenger of the moment, Ted Cruz, the senator from Texas who is running ahead of Trump in Iowa and has been caught slagging off his candidacy behind closed doors.

With the heft of the national security discussion we saw in the first two hours of CNN’s event, Cruz may not have a chance for any such inter-personal sally – the talk so far has run to the heavy calculations that the next commander in chief can expect to make as America steers its course overseas.

They’re scheduled to begin in moments. I’m your host, Tom McCarthy, and we’ve got a cast of a dozen here for you at Guardian US ready to make sense of the next couple hours for you. We’ve also got a special mobile experiment – just scroll down...

... and you can watch the debate online on CNN’s web site here.

Updated

The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino has this report from Hillary Clinton’s speech in Minneapolis about the homegrown terrorism threat:

Hillary Clinton sought to convince a tense nation that she was the candidate best-suited to prevent homegrown terrorism, presenting a “360-degree” counterterrorism strategy that called for engaging American technology companies and empowering Muslim communities.

In a speech at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis, Clinton outlined a five-point plan to counter homegrown radicalization and “discover and disrupt” terrorist plots before they are carried out. She also proposed enhancing the screening process for visa applicants who have visited countries known to be a hotbed for terrorism.

“I am confident once again we will choose resolve over fear,” Clinton said on Tuesday. “And we will defeat these new enemies just as we have defeated those who have threatened us in the past, because it is not enough to contain ISIS. We must defeat ISIS – break its momentum and then its back.”

Clinton
2016 Presidential Candidate Hilary Clinton Speaks about Terrorism at the University of Minnesota
MINNEAPOLIS, MN - DECEMBER 15: Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton speaks at the University of Minnesota on December 15, 2015 in Minneapolis, MN. During the speech Clinton announced her counterterrorism strategy to protect the United States if elected President. Ten Minnesota men have been arrested and charged with attempting to join the Islamic State. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) Photograph: Stephen Maturen/Getty Images

Crucial to the fight, Clinton said, are American Muslims. “They may be our first, last and best defense against homegrown radicalization and terrorism,” she said. “They are the most likely to recognize the insidious effects of radicalization before its too late, intervene to help set a young person straight.”
She also criticized Republicans for their strategy to fight Isis.

Special announcement from the Guardian’s Adam Gabbatt, who asks if you’d like to do something truly special on your phone during the debate:

I’ll be posting updates to WhatsApp throughout the debate. It’s an experiment by our Mobile Innovation Lab, and it promises to be some fun. We hope.

It’ll be like following along with a friend. A friend you don’t know yet. There might even be emojis.

If you want in, use WhatsApp to send the word “join” to 917-484-1518.

See you there.

Ben Carson cracks a joke.

(h/t @claire_phipps)

Once more from Guardian US columnist Lucia Graves, who’s still recovering from jet lag after several days in Paris for the climate talks:

The undercard debate is over and done with ... and not a single question was asked about the global climate accord forged in Paris, this weekend between almost 200 countries.

It’s one of the biggest news stories of the year, arguably the most significant achievement of Obama’s presidency, and it’s an area where a Republican president could wreak considerable havoc, with repercussions for the entire world.

We probably shouldn’t be surprised, and my question is this: will climate change even come up tonight? It would be nice to know where top candidates stand: On the campaign trail last weekend, they largely ignored the issue. CNN had better not.

Not only do they want to deny climate change, it seems – they want to deny climate change deals.

Updated

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is not turning his back on his buddy Trump, the Hill reports:

“I support all of my friends,” Brady said Tuesday on “The Dennis & Callahan Morning Show”when asked whether he backed the billionaire. “He’s always been so supportive of me. I’ve always enjoyed his company. I support all of my friends in everything that they do.”

Update: It’s a mutual admiration society!

Updated

Here’s the early word from the undercard, by way of brand-new Guardian US columnist Richard Wolffe:

Lindsey Graham always seems like he’s on the edge of tears, but it’s hard to emote while also reassuring voters that you can keep them safe.

George Pataki sounds like he’s looking for investment opportunities in upstate New York – it’s apparently a great place to do business.

Rick Santorum played the ultimate emotional card of being the parent of a disabled child, and Isis hates them. (Sadly they seem to hate just about every other form of humanity that isn’t an Isis fighter.)

Mike Huckabee says he wants to take the terrorists out. Not a little bit, but totally ... which begs the question of how you take out a terrorist a little bit.

None was the most coherent of pitches to get off the kiddie table. But like everyone who wants to join the grown-up dinner table, they sure sounded big when they spoke up.

Updated

In case this guy isn’t quite doing it for you in terms of the bottom line from that early version of the debate ...

... here’s a quick take from US opinion editor Megan Carpentier:

If you thought the popular backlash against Donald Trump’s anti-Muslim and anti-refugee comments would’ve made the kiddie table refugees act more like Lindsay Graham in the first half of the debate, you were in for a surprise – and it doesn’t bode well for the main event beginning in a few minutes.

From Huckabee mockingly demanding that refugees all be resettled in Martha’s Vineyard and the White House (and laying claim to more Christian-ness than “liberals”), to Rick Santorum claiming that we shouldn’t resettle refugees displaced by Isis because we need them to like us and rebuild the Syrian government, the options went from bad to idiotic and back again.

And as west coast bureau chief Paul Lewis reports via Instagram from inside the debate in Las Vegas:

paul lewis insta
The view inside the press room Photograph: Paul Lewis via Instagram

This how much the press corps cares about the so-called undercard (or kids’ table) Republican presidential debate reserved for the four candidates doing worst in the polls.

Closing statements

Graham: I’m ready to be president. Events have proven me more right than wrong. We’ve spent a lot of carnage to getting where I have always been. Make me president.

Pataki: This debate has been about terrorism. I was governor of New York during September 11th. Visit scenic lower Manhattan! A new tower, soaring 1,776 feet tall.

Santorum: Barack Obama has not kept us safe. Hillary Clinton won’t. We need a nominee to keep us safe. Isis kills disabled children. I’m the father of a disabled child. I know the face of evil and I will defeat it.

Huckabee: The terrorists don’t win just because they kill us. They win because they scare us. We have to take them out, not a little bit but totally. I want my grandkids to grow up not in fear but in faith and freedom. God bless.

Blitzer: Thanks to all the candidates. We’re just getting started. Here’s Anderson Cooper.

Update: Trump’s not lost, that was a joke, of course he’s not lost – it’s Vegas!

Anyway, on to closing statements.

Updated

Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi checks in again with the truth about refugees, beyond the bluster:

As the four undercard candidates clarified how many Syrian refugees that America should admit (hint: as few as humanly possible), it’s worth remembering how many have come to the US so far.

Since 2012, the US has accepted 2,174 Syrian refugees – roughly 0.0007% of America’s total population. By contrast, Germany has accepted 44,910 Syrian refugees. Check out more numbers here:

refugees in 2015 so far

“Another very quick break,” Blitzer says.

95 generous minutes so far for the four participants in the undercard debate, who may not have 5 polling points between them.

Republicans to refugees: Not welcome here

Santorum is asked if there’s a way to properly vet refugees coming into the USA.

Santorum says “there no possibility to adequately vet someone” from a war-torn country such as Syria. “Who’re you gonna ask, Assad?” he asks.

Pataki is asked about his opposition to Syrian refugees.

Pataki says there should be a no-fly zone in Syria and the refugees should go to Turkey. He says there is no way to vet refugees. Keep them out, he says. He’s applauded

No terrorist plot in the US or any other significant attack has ever been tied to a Syrian refugee case. Most refugees are women and children with documentable and in some cases self-evident stories of extreme duress at the hands of both Assad and opposition or radical outsider groups.

Updated

What could possibly be more dangerous to Americans than the foreign terror thre--oh.

“Another quick break,” Wolf Blitzer says.

What do you think? Who’s “winning”?

trump illustration sumo
Trump v world. Photo illustration: DonkeyHotey / flickr via Creative Commons

Once more from data editor Mona Chalabi, with Trumpening:

He’s not even standing on the stage, and yet: Donald Trump currently has more Google search traffic than Graham, Huckabee, Santorum and Pataki combined.

Updated

Graham smacks Santorum for his views on the capability of women to serve in combat.

Graham:

As to women, if you want to kill terrorists, I’m your guy.

Updated

Santorum expresses doubt about women in combat roles

Questioner Bash asks Santorum about women in combat roles. Would he reverse an armed forces policy allowing women in combat?

Santorum basically says he... might.

“I would change the policy to reflect what is the best interest of the people that we’re asking” to serve, Santorum says. Implying that women in combat roles is not in the best interest of the military.

“I want to make sure that the person responsible for his rank... has the ability to do the job they’re doing,” Santorum says. “If they can in fact do the job that any other person can do then I would allow them to do so....

“There were many studies done which begged this president not to move forward with it,” and people are going to get killed because of it, he says of allowing women in combat roles.

Pataki says reversing the policy “is not the right thing for America in the 21st century.”

Updated

will ferrell bush
Look who’s back: back again! Photograph: NBC/Getty Images

Guardian US columnist Lucia Graves with a few words from Washington on that lamenting-for-Dubya moment:

Well here’s someone we didn’t expect to emerge as a hero at the undercard debate: George W Bush, aka the guy who left office with historically low approval ratings after botching the invasion of Iraq, Katrina and so much more. ‘I miss George W Bush,’ Lindsey Graham said to applause. ‘I wish he were president now!”’

Though he became persona non grata in the Republican party circa 2008, and then again in 2012, Dubya’s image has been rehabilitated of late. And hindsight isn’t always 20/20: 77% of registered Republicans now say they approve of his presidency, according to a recent Bloomberg poll. Seriously:

Updated

Huckabee opposes a draft too. But he wants “to ask people to recognize that we are at war.”

Graham says “The next 9/11 is coming from Syria, it’s coming soon, and we have to have a plan.”

But it’s not necessary to reinstate the draft, he says. “If you don’t want to be there, I don’t want you there,” he says.

“We don’t need a draft. We need a commander in chief that knows what the hell they’re doing.”

Applause line.

Graham hits Ted Cruz, the Texas senator who’s in the mainstage debate, for saying that he may be open to leaving Assad in place in Syria.

“He says his favorite movie is The Princess Bride,” Graham says. Graham’s right; see below.

Graham’s punch line: “Getting in bed with Iran and Russia to save Assad is inconceivable!”

Updated

Guardian US data editor Mona Chalabi chimes in with some much-needed context:

Candidates’ references to a previous period of intense uncertainty and fear in the US make a lot of sense: a poll conducted earlier this month found that 54% of Republicans feel they are less safe from terrorist attacks now compared to 2001. (Another 21% said “about the same”.)

The poll, which was conducted by the Economist and YouGov, found that only 33% of Democrats said they feel less safe now compared to 2001.

yougvopoll
Now > then. Photograph: YouGov

Santorum calls the Iran deal “the greatest betrayal of this country in the history of this country.”

He says that by working with the Iranian Shia regime, the United States is “picking the wrong horse,” because there are so many more Sunni Muslims than Shiites.

Graham: 'I miss George W Bush'

Graham gets worked up. “The surge worked!” he says, referring to the 2007 deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops to Iraq, the so-called Sunni awakening and a correlated temporary improvement of the security situation there.

Graham is sick of Bush-bashing:

I blame Obama for Isil, not Bush. I’m tired of beating on Bush. I miss George W Bush!

Commercial break and they’re back.

Huckabee is asked whether he would join Russian president Vladimir Putin in propping up Bashar Assad, the Syrian president.

Huckabee says he does not trust Putin. He says that the United States cannot hug president Putin and go into the sunset “like the end of Casablanca.”

Nobody’s arguing with Huckabee on that point.

UPDATE: Oh yes they are:

US secretary of state John Kerry meanwhile reportedly said today that the United States is “not seeking regime change” in Syria.

Updated

Guardian politics reporter Ben Jacobs scans the stage, his gaze falling on – who’s that? – George Pataki. There’s a strong case to be made that the former governor does not belong, Ben writes:

The undercard debate stage tonight includes the past two winners of the Iowa caucuses and a well-respected three term senator.

George Pataki is also on stage.

The former Governor of New York has an impressive enough resume but has been running a shambles of a campaign and likely had a more effective political machine eight years ago when he backed out of a presidential bid.

Although Pataki is actively campaigning in New Hampshire, he has zero presence in any other early state. Further, Pataki failed to make the ballot in several states so far including Florida and Virginia.

With such a woeful effort, Pataki perhaps should have been kept off the stage tonight so that those running more earnest efforts for the White House would get more time in the limelight.

Updated

So far we’ve had 45 minutes of solid debate about the fight against Isis. The candidates have come at the question from different angles – a need for surveillance, a need for ground troops in Syria – but the discussion so far has fallen under the sole umbrella issue: how to address the threat posed by militants associated with the Islamic state group.

That would make this debate a powerful data point to the notion that national security fears, and particularly anxiety about the terrorist threat, are ascendant in the US.

nsa republicans
They’re listening. Photograph: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

From US opinion editor Megan Carpentier:

The denizens of the kiddie table had some pretty childish conceptions of constitutional privacy rights, the ability of the government to protect us and the true menace of political correctness, which is now longer solely hurting white men’s feelings but also, apparently, causing terrorist attacks. Here’s a rundown of the undercard on the NSA and beyond...

Rick Santorum said political correctness is what’s keeping us from reading everyone’s Facebook and Twitter posts, and that no one who isn’t connected to terrorists should worry about the government has their metadata and is running it through “algorithms”. But, if people want to get guns, people should definitely be worried that they might be on the terror watch list and be denied. (Also, by the way, he said that Islam isn’t really totally a religion, and thus shouldn’t be totally subject to first amendment religious protections.)

George Pataki wants a backdoor to all cellphone encryption – that means your iMessages, WhatsApp and everything else – and he wants your metadata back and, you know, for political correctness in reading visa applicants’ social media.

Lindsay Graham was the ... voice of reason on the stage (again?), pointing out that barring Muslims from the country and proclaiming that Islam and all Muslims are the enemy, we still won’t win. He’d still bring back reading everyone’s metadata, though.

Mike Huckabee struck a voice of reason about metadata collection, noting that we don’t have the money or the resources to read everything we collect and that the program didn’t ever identify a terrorist attack. He would, however, read everyone’s Twitter and Facebook posts – clearly the plan of someone who only follows 511 people himself – and also let’s stop being politically correct about Islam, which is clearly how to defeat Isis.

So, you know: sticks and stones will break their bones, but names will always hurt them. And all that.

Graham is the purported media favorite in the field...

... but who’s your favorite, so far?

Huckabee says he won’t put a number on how many troops he might or might not send to Syria because that would tip America’s hand to its enemies. He says you send as many troops as it takes to get the job done.

Pataki takes the question about deploying US troops in Syria.

“We have to send troops with allies and supporters wherever it is necessary to destroy the training centers and recruitment centers of Isis,” he says.

Unclear in what capacity he means.

Pataki wins applause for a tribute to the troops. “God bless you. This isn’t about us, it is about you.”

The conversation turns to potential US troop deployments in Syria. Santorum is asked how he can beat Isis in Syria without sending troops there.

Santorum launches into a lecture on the history of caliphates. He is posing as an authority on Islam. He says that taking territory from Isis would indicate to Muslims that the caliphate “is not blessed by Allah” and they would abandon it.

Then Santorum calls for training Syrian opposition members.

Won’t work, says Graham: “There is nobody left to train... Some of us have to go, folks. .... There must be American boots on the ground to win, if you don’t understand that, you’re not ready to be commander in chief.”

Santorum says he would support US troops on the ground in Syria “in a training capacity” but not on the front lines. Then he lapses into another lecture about “what they believe.”

Graham is asked how he would defeat Isis online. “What you want to do is you want to knock them offline,” he says.

He takes credit for supporting ground troops in Iraq and Syria before the idea gained currency. “If you don’t understand you need 10,000 troops in Iraq, you’re not ready” to be president, he says.

“I’m all in to do whatever it takes, as long as it takes,” he says. “I am seeking victory, folks, not containment.”

Question for Huckabee: How would you defeat Isis ideologically?

Huckabee: Remind people they intend to kill us. Obama underestimates them. “We’ve got to make it so untenable for someone to join Isis.”

Huckabee calls for “significant ground trips and an air campaign.” That’s some steely ideology. “We have to kill some terrorists and kill every one of them we can,” he says.

Graham is a countervailing voice on Islam, the potential threat posed inside the United States by Muslims, and what measures should or should not be taken to answer the threat.

“There are at least 3,500 Muslims serving in the armed forces,” Graham says. “Thank you for your service. You are not the enemy. Your religion is not the enemy.”

Updated

Santorum will not say that people on a terror watch list should automatically be banned from buying guns. He says that would interrupt the discretion of the ATF.

“Islam is not just a religion,” Santorum says. “It is also a political governing structure... and so the idea that that is protected under the first amendment is wrong.”

He says something incoherent about sharia law. Huckabee calls it “exactly right.”

NSA reform goes out the window: 'If a terrorist is calling into America...'

Huckabee says the surveillance of mosques would not violate first-amendment rights.

“They might just want to listen in and see, is there something that is a little nefarious?”

If Islam is as wonderful and peaceful as its adherents say, shouldn’t they be begging us to come in and listen to these peaceful sermons... so that we all would convert to Islam?

Updated

Huckabee calls for better social media monitoring for potential migrants. “This lady who came over here and shot up San Bernardino, yet we were restricted from looking” at her Facebook, Huckabee says.

The former Arkansas governor says every college kid who gets drunk puts a photo on Facebook that future employers will look at but the government can’t monitor the social media of potential immigrants who might be dangerous.

Pataki says limited monitoring of mosques or social media could be appropriate and legal. “I think it’s very important that we do everything in our power to prevent radicalization of Americans right here,” he says.

Santorum says that the San Bernardino attacks display a need for broader collection of phone metadata.

Graham agrees. Then he accuses senators Paul and Cruz of being isolationists. He says if terrorists call America, “don’t we want to know who they’re talking to?”

We’re at war folks. They’re not trying to steal your car. They’re trying to kill us all.

Huckabee also opposes Trump’s proposed Muslim ban.

“I’m not sure that you could have a religious test, per se,” Huckabee says. He says people coming into the USA could just lie about their religion.

“He has touched a nerve, because people are angry and afraid,” Huckabee says.

Santorum comes out as a partial supporter of Trump’s proposed Muslim ban – and wins some applause.

“The fact is, not all Muslims are jihadists. But the reality is, all jihadists are Muslims,” Santorum says.

But Graham has a persuasive riposte: “the only way we’re going to win the war over radical Islam is for the world to unite. Thousands of Muslims have died” fighting radical Islam, he says.

“This is not the way to make America safe. This is the way to aid our enemies.”

Pataki gets to pile on on Trump.

“To target a religion... is un-American, it is un-constitutional, and it is wrong,” the former New York governor says.

“Donald Trump is the Know-Nothing candidate of the 21st century and cannot be our nominee,” Pataki says.

Graham takes a question about Republicans who support Trump’s proposal to ban Muslims traveling to the US.

“You may think this makes us safe, but it doesn’t,” Graham says.

Donald Trump has done the one thing you just cannot do: Declare war on Islam itself. Isil would be dancing in the streets if they allowed dancing.

But he says “I will support the nominee, no matter he or she will be.” He says he’ll support Trump if he’s the nominee.

But Trump “clearly doesn’t understand this war and how to win it,” Graham says.

Santorum: 'World War III has begun'

Blitzer is still explaining the rules. And we won’t get a commercial after all. The candidates introduce themselves:

Graham: I just got back from Iraq, which I’ve visited dozens of times in the past decade. I met a sergeant who was proud of his work to train Iraqi Kurdish commandoes. His predecessor was killed in a raid. I told him to stay safe. As commander in chief, I will ensure he can win.

Pataki: I want to speak to you as an American. “As we saw today in LA, we are in a crisis in our country.” Barack Obama refuses to call “radical Islam what it is,” and neither will Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump demeans Americans. Republicans must unite America.

Santorum: We have entered World War III. World War III has begun. And we have a leader who refuses to identify and be truthful to the American people of the stakes involved. The Iran deal is bad. Barack Obama created Isis. Elect me.

Huckabee: Americans are angry. Americans are scared. Of being shot at a Christmas party. Of failed border security. “We’ve lost confidence in our government.” We need a president who will lead and not follow.

The camera moves into the hall and Wolf Blitzer is talking. “There’s a lot of anticipation here in this theater,” he says. He welcomes viewers.

The network will use questions submitted by viewers on Facebook, Blitzer says. And other questions.

He introduces the undercard. There’s Graham. Santorum. Huckabee. And Pataki.

They’re applauded. There’s a group picture. There’s exciting music. Then vocalist Ayla Brown comes out and sings God Bless America. Sounds good.

Let's get ready to ... watch four people in an undercard debate!

OK here comes the real show.

CNN begins with a sizzle reel. The reel highlights the national security debate. With pictures of bearded rifle-wielding jihadis and a good share of Trump voiceover.

It’s still going. They’re definitely going to commercial after this.

Updated

Rain delay: the undercard debate, it turns out, is not going to start until 6.30pm. By advertising it for 6pm, CNN meant that their five-dudes-on-stools-in-blue-ties (pace Paul Begala) talking-about-what-hasn’t-happened-yet would start at 6pm.

The actual debate itself doesn’t start for another 15 minutes. We fall for it every time!

Tune in though, former Michigan Representative Mike Rogers, who served for four years as House intelligence committee chairman, is participating, lots of great insight out of these guys

Updated

To remind you, here’s the lineup for the warmup:

  • Former senator Rick Santorum
  • Former New York governor George Pataki
  • Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas and media personality
  • South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham

Carson calls for Guard deployments on Canadian border

Political reporter Ben Jacobs has this dispatch from Waukee, Iowa, west of Des Moines – and safely a very large state away from Canada:

In a seven-point foreign policy plan unveiled Tuesday, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson called for the National Guard to be deployed on the Canadian border.

In his plan, Carson said “Barack Obama and Congress should immediately deploy the National Guard and military troops to patrol the U.S. southern border as well as designated spots along the northern border.”

While border security on the Mexican border has long been an issue in the presidential race, with Donald Trump touting his plan to build “a big, beautiful wall,” this isn’t the first time that the Canadian border has become an issue in the 2016 campaign.

In August, then-candidate Scott Walker said a wall on the Canadian border was “a legitimate issue for us to look at.” After widespread mockery, Walker was forced to back away from that proposal. Just three weeks later, Walker dropped out of the race.

Defenseless against him. For now.
Defenseless. For now. Photograph: Chris Wattie/Reuters

On the Democratic side, longshot Martin O’Malley is on the record opposing any efforts by the United States to annex Canada as it tried to do during the American Revolution and War of 1812. “That ship has sailed,” the former Maryland governor told The Daily Beast in 2014.

Carson’s proposal comes as the Republican hopeful is desperately trying to demonstrate his foreign policy bona fides. A political neophyte, Carson has had a series on embarrassing gaffes when discussing foreign affairs. Most recently, he repeatedly referred to Palestinian terrorist group Hamas as “hummus,” seemingly confusing the dominant political faction in the Gaza Strip with a chickpea based dip.

In addition to calling for the deployment of the National Guard on the Canadian border, Carson urged a formal congressional declaration of war against ISIS, the establishment of a refugee safe zone in Syria and the investigation of CAIR, a pro Muslim advocacy group in the United States, “as an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and a supporter of terrorism.”

carson
Carson in Las Vegas. Photograph: ZUMA Wire/REX/Shutterstock

The Carson campaign did not respond to request for comment for more detail on the specific “designated spots” on the Canadian border where he believes the National Guard should be deployed.

Updated

Should be fun to have Lindsey Graham back tonight. Hard to understand why the South Carolina senator, a Republican touchstone on national security issues, was excluded from the last set of debates, no matter how miniscule his polling numbers.

Graham will be among the four to take the warmup stage in about ten minutes here. *Correction: no, when CNN said 6p they meant 6.30.

In past debates, Graham has been a reliable proponent of the idea that the United States needs to send up to 20,000 more troops to the Middle East – an idea that an increasing number of Americans appear to be coming around to – and a font of memorable moments of wit and... we won’t write wisdom...

Remember last time, in Colorado? “The party’s over,” Graham said. “Make me commander in chief and this crap stops!”

Updated

This is the case.

The last CNN GOP mainstage debate, in September in California, ran three hours – so here’s hoping they try to top that?

Now here’s fodder for debate: What are the 10 best films set in Las Vegas? The Guardian’s John Patterson has congenially gone and answered the question for readers seeking entertainment to precede the entertainment.

Controversially, in certain quarters, John has not included in his roundup that madcap sequel starring Sandra Bullock as an FBI agent undercover as a beauty pageant contestant that was 2005’s gift to cinema. We speak, of course, of Miss Congeniality 2: Armed and Fabulous.

You can find John’s top 10 here.

Walter Mondale, who knows from presidential campaigns, has introduced Hillary Clinton at an appearance in Minneapolis, Minnesota to discuss homeland security:

The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino is covering the speech. For now follow her on Twitter – we’ll have her writeup later.

What’s different from the last time we did this?

Let’s go to the tape. The last Republican debate was on 10 November and it happened in Milwaukee. We live blogged it here, concluding:

The debate was a polite and serious affair defined by relatively deep dives into tax reform proposals, the minimum wage, health care, immigration, bank bailouts, military spending, foreign policy and more.

Ted Cruz said, “I don’t think we should be pushing any grannies off cliffs.” No one debated him on it.

Tonight marks the return of New Jersey governor Chris Christie to the main debate stage, after his relegation in Milwaukee to the kiddie table.

Also zooming back tonight are South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham and former New York governor George Pataki, whose abysmal polling numbers (zero is a number) kept them offstage last name. Their numbers remain low; CNN must’ve been feeling generous.

Gone since last time is Bobby Jindal, the governor of Louisiana, who suspended his campaign a week after the last debate.

Hosting the evening’s precedings will be Wolf Blitzer, Dana Bash and Hugh Hewitt. Jake Tapper already had his turn.

Updated

Before we jump into our pregame debate coverage, here’s what else is crackling today in politics:

Trump polling dominance persists

Yesterday it was Monmouth University, today it’s the Washington Post/ABC News – but the news is the same: Donald Trump has built his biggest lead yet in the Republican nominating competition, increasing his share in polling averages to more than 33%. That’s up four points since he called for a ban on Muslim immigrants. O beautiful, for spacious skies....

Republican polls – average

Trump rally in Las Vegas gets ugly

A rally with Donald Trump in Las Vegas Monday night ahead of Tuesday’s debate got ugly, with repeated scuffles during a speech that was interrupted repeatedly by protesters, hecklers and a few drunken people who appeared to have stumbled out of the casinos. For amber waves of grain...

Support for ground war against Isis builds

“The percentage of Americans who favor deploying U.S. troops to fight IS militants has risen from 31 percent to 42 percent over the past year in AP-GfK polling,” the Associated Press reported. Still less than half. For purple mountain majesties...

Clinton holds Iowa edge

Bernie Sanders is holding a 5-point lead over Hillary Clinton in polling averages in New Hampshire, but she appears comfortably ahead of him in Iowa, with a new Quinnipiac poll showing her leading him 51-40 (with Martin O’Malley at 6). Above the fruited plain!

Quote of the day

“I think it is going to be a very big night. They’re all coming after me.” – Donald Trump, on the topic of tonight’s debate

Rubio drops TV ad

“This election is about the essence of America”. Water is the essence of moisture:

To-go cup

America! America!

It’s debate night! Welcome to our live coverage of the fifth Republican presidential debate, and thanks for joining us.

The location of tonight’s debate, Las Vegas, invites a prizefight analogy. But what kind of prizefight has nine lecterns, three refs and zero bathrobes? (There might be bathrobes.)

Luckily, Sin City does costumed entertainment every bit as well as it does title bouts, so you can think of tonight’s spectacle, at TripAdvisor favorite The Venetian, as politics’ answer to Celine Dion, Penn and Teller and Cirque du Soleil. An evening of magic, we’re in for.

The headliner act is slated to start at 8.30pm ET. A warmup debate is set for 6pm.

If you don’t know the cast by now, you’re behind, but in good hands. At center stage will be Donald Trump, the Wrestlemania star and polling prince of the Republican nominating contest.

Flanking Trump will be retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson and Texas senator Ted Cruz (full stage arrangement here). Everyone will be watching for Trump to take a swipe at Cruz, who has surpassed him in the Iowa polls and who last week was caught badmouthing Trump behind closed doors.

Trump started returning fire at the weekend. “You look at the way he’s dealt with the Senate, where he goes in there like a – you know, frankly like a little bit of a maniac,” Trump said on CNN, also the host of tonight’s debate. “You’re never going to get things done that way.”

Cruz has responded with what is by now his annoying habit of dragging awesome cultural products into his presidential campaign. First it was The Princess Bride. Now it’s Tommy Boy:

Tonight’s not all about fun. Concerns about terrorism have spiked following the attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, California, and the Republican candidates are likely to be pressed on how they would protect against another such attack and address the larger problem.

And there are plenty of other topics they might pick from, with an historic climate change agreement just concluded, the prospect of higher interest rates on the horizon and an ongoing situation Tuesday in Los Angeles, where public schools were closed for the day on account of an apparent bomb threat.

Candidates participating in tonight’s main event debate will be:

  • Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida
  • Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon
  • Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey
  • Ted Cruz, US senator from Texas
  • Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-Packard
  • John Kasich, governor of Ohio
  • Rand Paul, US senator from Kentucky
  • Marco Rubio, US senator from Florida
  • Donald Trump, real estate developer and reality show star

Candidates participating in tonight’s warmup debate will be:

  • Former senator Rick Santorum
  • Former New York governor George Pataki
  • Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas and media personality
  • South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham

Along for the ride this evening here at Guardian US are:

  • West coast bureau chief Paul Lewis and politics reporter Sabrina Siddiqui, on the scene in Las Vegas, with Guardian US columnist Jeb Lund lurking along the Strip
  • Politics reporter Ben Jacobs, in a bar (??) in Waukee, Iowa
  • New Guardian US columnist Richard Wolffe in New York City, joined by data editor Mona Chalabi, reporter Lauren Gambino (tracking a Hillary Clinton speech this afternoon on homegrown terror) and US opinion editor Megan Carpentier
  • Business reporter Jana Kasperkevic in Washington DC, joined by Washington correspondent David Smith and columnist Lucia Graves
  • ... and featuring Guardian writer Adam Gabbatt on WhatsApp, where he would like you to join him – which we hereby invite you to do!

Updated

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