This article is part of the Guardian’s Euro 2016 Experts’ Network, a cooperation between some of the best media organisations from the countries who have qualified for France. theguardian.com is running previews from three countries each day in the run-up to the tournament kicking off on 10 June.
The key difference between this Ireland team and the one that lost all three of their matches at Euro 2012 relates to attitude. Four years ago Giovanni Trapattoni probably had a better bunch of players but stifled the side due to his conviction that Ireland were not good enough to aspire to being anything other than plucky sucker-punchers.
Martin O’Neill has slightly more faith in the players’ ability even if he, too, occasionally lapses into excessive caution or even slovenliness, as during the 1-0 defeat by Scotland in qualifying, when the long-ball approach met with predictably little success. Generally his team have been enterprising, especially when he deploys Robbie Brady as a left-back. The Norwich City player is defensively vulnerable but his menace going forward – and his precious set-piece deliveries – make him as dangerous as Seamus Coleman is on the right. The width provided by those two in particular often enables Ireland to beef up central midfield.
Trapattoni’s decision not to take Coleman to Poland and Ukraine four years ago was decried at the time, as was the Italian’s neglect of Wes Hoolahan, who has since become the chief creator under O’Neill. At 34 the Norwich City playmaker finds it hard to last 90 minutes and including him makes a flat 4-4-2 impossible, which is why O’Neill usually favours a 4-2‑3-1 or a midfield diamond with Hoolahan at the tip. When he is on the pitch his wriggly runs and inventive passes give the Irish an element of surprise they otherwise lack.
Shane Long’s speed and aerial power are also crucial and give Ireland an essential counterattacking threat against teams who have more possession than them, which could be everyone at Euro 2016. With Jonathan Walters either partnering Long or playing off the right, the Irish attack can spread panic in any defence if given decent service.
James McCarthy will anchor midfield if fit. Glenn Whelan’s place in the centre would have been in jeopardy if Harry Arter had been fit but the Bournemouth player’s injury makes him a probable starter.
O’Neill’s greatest area of concern is central defence, where it is difficult to predict which two players he will select and even more difficult to feel safe with whichever pairing he goes for. John O’Shea will probably start, having played every group game until being sent off in the last one in Poland. In his absence for the play-off, Ciaran Clark played well alongside Richard Keogh against Bosnia-Herzegovina. And Shane Duffy looked solid at times during the warm-up matches. All four centre-backs, however, are prone to concentration lapses so the goalkeeper, Darren Randolph, is likely to see plenty of action against such strikers as Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Romelu Lukaku and Michy Batshuayi.
Probable starting XI
Which Republic of Ireland player is going to surprise everyone at the Euro 2016?
Jeff Hendrick was the biggest revelation of the qualifying campaign, along with Randolph. Hendrick was not even a regular starter for Derby County when he made a decisive impact off the bench for Ireland in Germany, setting up a late equaliser for O’Shea. He then earned a place in the first XI and his runs from midfield and composed distribution became a recurring feature of the campaign, whether he played centrally or on the left. His dribble and pass for Walters’ winning goal against Georgia was a work of beauty and he has a lovely understanding with Brady, with whom he has been playing since they were 10-year-olds at the Dublin junior club St Kevin’s Boys.
Which player is likely to disappoint?
James McCarthy. In a team with plenty of limitations but generally admirable spirit, the Everton midfielder is the one player who sometimes leaves onlookers wondering whether he could have done more. Too often he is akin to the Irish Mikel Jon Obi, content to sit deep rather than assert the attacking quality that he does actually possess. Other than that, Long’s finishing can still be sketchy and James McClean’s tackling scary.
What is the realistic aim for Republic of Ireland at the Euro 2016 and why?
Defensive weakness and a relative flair deficit make elimination in the group stage probable but progress beyond that is not unimaginable, as the team have inexhaustible energy and, in Long and Walters, forwards who can floor any rival who is not up for a fight, especially when Hoolahan is at his mischievous best. If Ireland’s central defenders have a good day against Ibrahimovic in their first match, the rest of the team are roughly the equal of Sweden and a win would give them a powerful boost before facing Italy and Belgium, who have more quality but will have to show similar endeavour.
Paul Doyle writes for the Guardian.
Click here for a profile of the Republic of Ireland’s Darren Randolph.
