An analysis of the patchwork of renewable energy targets across the National Electricity Market has found while some states are well on the way to meeting their commitments, others are struggling.
Research from consultants Green Energy Markets (GEM) has found while Victoria and South Australia are in reach of their targets, New South Wales and Queensland are, on current trends, falling well short.
GEM director Tristan Edis said the focus was now firmly on state governments given the Federal Government has declared it does not intend to implement additional policies to reduce emissions in the electricity sector.
"Pointing the finger at the Federal Government and calling on them to do something to address policy uncertainty and reduce emissions is wasting your breath," Mr Edis said.
"The constitution rests power over regulation of the power sector with state governments. They have the power to drive investment in new capacity that will reduce emissions and increase competition."
Percentage of renewable energy power generation by fuel and share of generation
| State | 2018 | 2030 target | 2030 GEM projection | Net zero emissions target |
| Victoria | 20.9pc | 50pc | 39.8pc | 2050 |
| NSW | 14.4pc | 46pc* | 28.0pc | 2050 |
| Queensland | 10.7pc | 50pc | 29.2pc | 2050 |
| SA | 53.0pc | 100pc | 73.5pc | 2050 |
| Tasmania | 104.8pc | 100pc | 99.4pc | 2050 |
Source: Green Energy Markets *NSW has not stated a 2030 target, the 46pc is an extrapolation to meet the 2050 target
Mr Edis said Victoria was already close to achieving its target of 40 per cent of power generation coming from renewables by 2025 and within striking distance of its 2030 target for 50 per cent renewables.
To bridge the gap in 2030, Victoria still needs another 2,000 megawatts of capacity from new projects, which could achieved by two more rounds of power contracts similar to the 928MW tender conducted last year.
South Australia still has a sizeable gap to make up, but that is in large part due to loftier ambitions.
Last year more than half of South Australia's power came from renewable generation.
On GEM's modelling, it is on track to generate renewable energy equal to about three-quarters of its consumption by 2030, around 1300MW short of the 100 per cent target.
However, Mr Edis said New South Wales was falling well short of its plan for net-zero emissions from its power sector by 2050.
"To be on track it would need renewables to grow to around 46 per cent of its overall electricity consumption by 2030, but is currently on track to 28 per cent based on expected rooftop solar growth and committed and contracted wind and solar farms," he said.
"To bridge the gap it requires close to an additional 5,000MW of new renewable energy project commitments by 2030."
Queensland is also significantly short of its target for 50 per cent renewables by 2030, with current commitments and rooftop solar growth projected to deliver less than 30 per cent.
"Even after taking into account the initiatives of the Government's CleanCo, the state requires around another 4,500MW of projects," Mr Edis said.
Tasmania is already at 100pc
Tasmania can pretty well put its cue in the rack having achieved more than 100 per cent renewable generation last year; the excess was due to exporting a portion of its hydro and wind power.
While drought may lead to Tasmania occasionally slipping back under its target, Mr Edis said over time it would likely balance out at 100 per cent, or more.
Western Australia was not included in the GEM study, but it is the only state without a renewable energy target or zero emissions target.
A report from the Climate Council late last year found WA was a fair way behind, "at the start of the renewables race", with only 7.5 per cent of the state's power coming from renewable sources.
"While there's still a noticeable gap left for the states to fulfil their pledges, the dramatic growth in renewable energy over the last three years shows these targets are more than achievable given the 10-year lead time ahead of us," Mr Edis said.
Currently there are almost 10,000MW of large-scale renewable projects currently under construction, with just under half the capacity solar generation. Wind makes up another third and hydro most of the rest.
Mr Edis said projects currently underway were employing about 22,000 workers, while new projects required to meet the states' long-term targets would create another 32,000 construction jobs.
