If Theresa May was hoping victory in last night’s vote of confidence might restore some of her authority, she will soon add ignorance of the Conservative party to her back catalogue of errors. She now clings to office like a trapped mountain climber clamped to a cliff edge: paralysed, powerless and entirely at the mercy of the hostile elements around her. The worst thing that could have happened to the prime minister was not to lose this vote but to win it.
Yesterday’s fresh outbreak of an old Tory war gives the country little to cheer, but we may find that the prime minister’s despair offers one section of the population hope: those who wish to have a second referendum or revoke article 50. The worst possible outcome for May may just be the best possible outcome for remain.
Brexit is really a process of elimination, and the first item we can rule out is May’s deal with the EU. If the situation looked bleak before the vote, now it looks intolerable. May has rendered herself indistinguishable from her deal. If 117 Tory MPs cannot support one, they will never support the other.
It is not simply a matter of confidence in May. The thing her MPs hate is the thing she cannot change – the Irish backstop. Currently the one element that makes the backstop acceptable to the EU is the one element that makes it unacceptable to parliament – namely, its lack of end point or unilateral break clause. If she added those to make it acceptable to parliament, it would then be unacceptable to the EU. There is no middle ground.
Consequently the restless Tory rebels will need to seek new outlets for their frustration. Some will aim for no deal. Others will try to push for a Norway-style option or a people’s vote. But the key is this: May’s opponents now feel both aggrieved and empowered. They may not, for another year, be able to remove her, but they no longer remotely fear her.
The approaching deadlock can only benefit remainers. First, May’s weakness delivers fresh momentum for a no-confidence vote in her government. If the numbers of her opponents had only equated to the established awkward squad, Labour might justifiably have urged caution. But now the levels of Tory dissatisfaction are revealed to transcend any party loyalty. It would take only a handful of Tory MPs unhappy enough in their government to want to bring it down. Labour should find out.
A general election is not the easiest means of staying in the EU, but that eventuality is more likely under a Labour government than a Conservative one. There are, however, other possibilities. If a general election does not take place, British politics will calcify in stalemate. The government taunts its critics that this will produce a no-deal crash-out – but its threats now carry no weight. Tory moderates increasingly protest that they will block a no-deal scenario. Ministers and hardliners respond that no deal is the legal default, but the European court of justice has also now defeated them: this week’s ruling made clear that we can revoke article 50 at any time. If faced with a choice between no deal and no Brexit, parliament will without any hesitation force the government’s hand.
In a situation where every outcome is implausible, a currently implausible possibility will necessarily become reality. A referendum has become by far the likeliest option. If there is no way out, MPs will choose what is least unpalatable – and May will have little choice but to comply.
For all May’s absence of shame, humility and insight, the prime minister retains an admirable focus on delivering impossible challenges. She will climb the mountain of Brexit for as long as she occupies Downing Street. Her backbenchers may eventually force a retreat – but they will not come to her rescue.
• Jonathan Lis is deputy director of the thinktank British Influence
