NIGEL Farage’s Reform UK have slumped into third place in a major new Westminster poll.
The survey of more than 5000 UK voters, conducted from July 30 to August 3 and published over the weekend, estimated that Labour would win 27% of the vote if a General Election were held tomorrow.
This put Andy Burnham’s party nine points ahead of Farage’s, which polled at 18% – just three points ahead of the Greens on 15%.
The poll, conducted by Conservative peer Michael Ashcroft, found that the Tories were in second place on 23%, and the LibDems in fourth place on 8%.
The SNP and Plaid Cymru polled at 3% and 1% respectively, but they only stand in either Scotland or Wales. “Other” parties polled at 5%.
If those vote percentages played out in an election, Labour would return 309 MPs – 17 short of an outright majority, according to the Electoral Calculus seat projection tool.
The Tories would be the second largest party, with 192 seats, while Reform remain behind the LibDems, with 31 seats to Ed Davey’s party’s 51.
The Greens and the SNP were projected to tie on 22 seats.
Ashcroft said the poll showed the “Burnham Bounce” – a spike in popularity which parties often see following a new leader – was “real”.
However, he went on: “Burnham has had about the best start he could have hoped for. But there is a sense among voters – and probably inside Number 10, if they’re smart – of waiting for the other shoe to drop.
“Zoom out from the novelty of a new leader with new ideas, and the wider picture looks depressingly familiar.”
Ashcroft added: “The new Prime Minister has an unpalatable choice: disappoint his newfound fans by siding with the country on welfare, migration, taxes, and net zero, or doing the opposite and risk facing the same ire as his predecessor. Whatever the weather, politics is one place where climate change is definitely not happening.”
Another poll over the weekend, conducted by Ipsos, also found Reform’s lead slipping – but predicted different results elsewhere.
NEW headline voting intention from Ipsos 📊For the first time this year, Labour lead Reform. 📊Labour have risen 4 points to 28%, since June. 📊Little change for the Conservatives, Green Party and Lib Dems. pic.twitter.com/eCwHgZdsWK
— Ipsos in the UK (@Ipsos_in_the_UK) August 9, 2026
The Ipsos survey of 1033 voters put Labour in the lead on 28%, with Reform narrowly behind on 25%. The Tories polled at 18%, the Greens on 12%, and the LibDems on 9%.
The Electoral Calculus seat projection tool predicted that this would result in Labour as the largest party, with 292 MPs – 34 short of a majority.
Reform UK were predicted to be the second-largest party on 180 MPs, while the Tories slump into fourth place on just 57. The LibDems were predicted to win 67 MPs, while the Greens win seven.
The Ipsos survey was conducted from July 30 to August 4, meaning there is a large overlap with the Ashcroft polling.
Both polls come after a More in Common survey in late July showed that Labour had overtaken Reform at the top of the UK polls for the first time in 16 months .
That survey also put Labour on 28%, with Reform UK four points behind on 24%.
