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GLASGOW is a post-apocalyptic wasteland. At least, that’s how Reform MSPs tell it.
Take the party’s deputy leader in Scotland, Thomas Kerr, who has claimed that his own home city is “lawless, and that anarchy is now rampant on our streets”.
He also claimed earlier this week that there is a “crime epidemic” and Glasgow is “seeing a rapid rise in violent crimes and sexual assaults and in rapes”.
The Reform MSP’s doom-mongering has apparently made it across the pond.
Far-right US agitator Joey Mannarino, who has been banned from entering the UK, echoed Kerr in a social media post which read: “In Glasgow, Scotland reports are out that murders, assaults, and rapes have all spiked dramatically as of recent.”
In Glasgow, Scotland reports are out that murders, assaults, and rapes have all spiked dramatically as of recent. Police Scotland’s own divisional commander just admitted it. We all know why. Mass migration from the third world. Fighting-age men from cultures that don’t belong…
— Joey Mannarino (@JoeyMannarino) July 1, 2026
Mannarino claimed this was due to “mass migration”, adding: “Fighting-age men from cultures that don’t belong here, turning another European city into a crime-infested shithole.”
The similarity between the rhetoric is clear – but does it bear any relation to reality?
Just last week, the Scottish Government published official recorded crime statistics covering 2025-26 and going back to 2016-17 – and they tell a very different story.
Let’s look claim by claim.
What the stats say
First, is Kerr right that there is a “crime epidemic”?
According to the official stats, there were 849 crimes of all types per 10,000 of Glasgow’s population in 2025-26.
This, coincidentally, almost exactly matches the 10-year average of 848, and is lower than every year from 2016-2021.
Next, are violent crimes seeing a “rapid rise”?
The official figures show that per 10,000 of the population, there were 193 non-sexual crimes of violence in Glasgow in 2025-26, coincidentally exactly the same as 10 years ago, in 2016-17.
The numbers have fluctuated in between, with a dip in many violent crimes in 2020-21 because of the Covid pandemic lockdowns. As such, 2025-26 is slightly above the 10-year average of 190 per 10,000 people, but is not in the top three years of the data set (2017-18 to 2019-20).
Now, murders.
Mannarino claimed that the number of people being killed in Glasgow has “spiked dramatically”. However, the official stats show that per 10,000 of the population there have been zero murders on average for all of the past 10 years.
In terms of raw numbers, there were 13 murders in Glasgow in 2025-26. While this is two more than the previous year and the 10-year average, it is the same as in 2019-20, and one fewer than in 2018-19. Essentially, it is in line with the usual annual count, not a dramatic increase.
Next, assaults. The word is used in three categories of crime in the official record: sexual assault, common assault, and serious assault and attempted murder.
Sexual assaults in Glasgow have dropped by 6% year-on-year in raw numbers, according to the figures, while per 10,000 of the population they have remained stable (recording 12 in 2025-26, the same as the 10-year average).
Common assaults in Glasgow have risen by 3% year-on-year in raw numbers, but per 10,000 of the population are again largely in line with expectations, at 164 compared to a 10-year average of 160.
Thirdly, serious assault and attempted murder is up 3% year-on-year, but down 39% over the decade.
In 2016-17, 911 crimes were recorded as serious assault and attempted murder, compared to 555 in 2025-26. The stats per 10,000 of the population tell a similar story, with 2025-26’s nine below the 10-year average of 13.
Finally, rapes, which are classed together with attempted rape in the official crime statistics.
In 2025-26, there were 486 rapes or attempted rapes recorded in Glasgow. While this figure is likely to be well below the true number, it was a 2% fall year-on-year.
However, there has been a serious increase in the number of rapes and attempted rapes recorded over the past decade.
In 2016-17, 221 incidents were recorded in this category (or four per 10,000 of the population). This spiked to 386 (six per 10,000) in 2017-18. That number then fluctuated until 2024-25, when it jumped to 494 (or eight per 10,000).
None of this is to minimise the harm caused by violent crime or sexual violence. Every victim matters, and one is too many. But the figures tell a much more varied story than the one presented by Kerr or his far-right allies.
Their claims of a city gripped by a “crime epidemic” or experiencing dramatic spikes in murders and assaults are not supported by the official statistics.
So the question must be: why are Reform UK insisting on repeating a narrative of a “lawless” city?
The answer is, I think, clear. If people can be persuaded that society is collapsing, they are more likely to accept harsher policing, fewer civil liberties, and more extreme politics.
You can bet Kerr knows that.
