The Washington Redskins are one of the more encouraging teams in the NFL this offseason.
A well-reviewed draft found a potential franchise quarterback, among other positive notes, and a litany of players returning from injury offers hope the team can get back to contending for the NFC East like it did a year ago before players started missing time.
But win projections based on a formula from the Washington Post’s Neil Greenberg tell a different story:
As you can imagine, a mean projection of 6-10 doesn’t bode well for Washington’s playoff chances. The Redskins win the NFC East in just 3 percent of the simulations run, the NFC championship 1.7 percent of the time and the Super Bowl once out of every 179 simulations (0.6 percent). Those are better odds than being struck by lightning but underwhelming considering the buzz surrounding the team in the offseason.
And the reality is simple: this is the positive time of the offseason. The Redskins are stuck with either a rookie or underperforming journeyman at quarterback. The injury bug already popped up when Reuben Foster went down.
Topping it all off is the brutal schedule, which features, among other things, a road opener in Philadelphia and three straight division games to close the season.
If the Redskins win more than six games next year it will apparently trump summer projections, for starters.
