Every year, one of my favorite offseason activities is to “redraft” the entire NFL. It’s a great exercise in determining who are the most valuable players heading into each season and beyond.
Today, we are going to be completing the first round of a redraft of the NFL. But before we begin, let’s establish some rules before heading into this draft.
Rule No. 1 – Current contracts are not considered
There are two ways we could go about doing this exercise: with or without their current contracts. That would make things incredibly tricky as players on rookie contracts, such as Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield, would suddenly become even more valuable than they already are.
However, we aren’t going to do that today. Let’s assume that once a player is drafted, his new team will give him a new contract. For the sake of this exercise, this makes it easier for us to asses who the best and most important players are heading into the 2019 season and beyond.
Rule No. 2 – The draft order is the 2019 NFL draft order
Where these players are “picked” doesn’t matter as much as when they are selected, but we will use the 2019 draft order to assign these players their new teams. However, team “fit” isn’t considered as we are just selecting the most important and valuable player at each pick.
Rule No. 3 – The draft is “Snake” style
Just like your fantasy drafts, this draft would have to use “snake” order to ensure competitive balance. The team that has the 32nd overall selection will also receive pick No. 33, while the team that has pick No. 1 will receive pick No. 64. Where you are slotted in this draft could make all the difference in how you may build your roster.
Rule No.4 – Rookies are included
In previous versions of this draft, I haven’t included the incoming rookies in the selection. However, I’ve found it more fun to add them and project which rookie quarterbacks I would take over already established veterans. We will include them to make this a more interesting exercise. So without further ado, let’s get into the picks!
1. QB Patrick Mahomes, Arizona Cardinals
In the last two editions of this piece, Aaron Rodgers has been easily the No. 1 selection. However, picking the player with the most value heading into the 2019 season is now a no-brainer.
At just the age of 23, Patrick Mahomes already has an MVP year under his belt and may be the most dynamic quarterback we have ever seen in the NFL. In his first season as a full-time starter, he threw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns as he led the Chiefs to a record of 12-4.
Even after just one season, there is a fairly significant gap between the No.1 and No. 2 player on this list. Mahomes is the definition of a generational quarterback.
2. QB Baker Mayfield, San Francisco 49ers
This is where the conversation gets interesting. At No. 2, a team could opt to take a safer, more proven quarterback such as Andrew Luck or Aaron Rodgers. Both have shown to be elite quarterbacks every year, but also have some injury concerns that give some pause for concern.
Instead, the 49ers opt to take another young, stud passer in Baker Mayfield. As a rookie, Mayfield completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for 3,725 yards and 27 touchdowns. While he is undoubtedly more of an unknown compared to many of his peers, the upside here is phenomenal.
I may be a year or two too early on this selection, but Mayfield is easily one of the most valuable assets in all of football.
3. QB Andrew Luck, New York Jets
For a few months, it appeared Luck may never make it back to the NFL. After a shoulder injury that cost him the entire 2017 season, Luck returned in 2018 and picked right back up where he left off.
Luck completed 67 percent of his passes, throwing 39 touchdowns as he led the Colts to the playoffs and a wild-card win over the Houston Texans. While there are some durability concerns, Luck can play in any system and has proved to be a quarterback who can carry a team to the playoffs.
Luck’s value has taken a slight hit over the last few years, but he is still easily one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL and is just 29 years old.
4. QB Aaron Rodgers, Oakland Raiders
Deciding where to slot Rodgers was one of the most challenging decisions I had creating this draft. On pure talent alone, Rodgers would be No. 1 on this list. However, he has suffered a drop in play since 2016. In 2018, he played all 16 games but threw just 25 touchdown passes. Before last year, Rodgers averaged 34.6 passing touchdowns when appearing in every game. That is quite a significant decrease in passing production.
Rodgers will turn 36 this season and has struggled with injuries over the last few years. However, there are very few quarterbacks in NFL history that strike the fear that Rodgers does when he is on the field. He’s still a top-five passer in the NFL, and you can make a case that he deserves to be much higher on this list.
5. QB Russell Wilson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
There is always a hefty amount of debate that surrounds Wilson and where he ranks as a passer. But at some point, the stats speak for themselves. In 2018, Wilson threw 35 touchdown passes to just seven interceptions and had a passer rating of 110.9. Wilson averaged an absurd 9.0 adjusted yards per attempt, the third-most behind Patrick Mahomes and Drew Brees.
Wilson is still reasonably young (30) and has yet to miss a game in his NFL career. His team has never had a losing season, and he’s already made five Pro Bowls in his seven-year career.
Considering his impressive resume and durability, you can make a case that he should be selected over the likes of Luck and Rodgers. Nevertheless, he lands inside the top five for the second consecutive season.
6. QB Deshaun Watson, New York Giants
It’s hard to believe Watson has only started 22 games in the NFL. Since coming to Houston, he’s been a star for the Texans. In his 22 starts, he’s thrown for 45 touchdowns and ran for another seven. He has a career passer rating of 103.1 and is averaging an incredible 8.3 yards per attempt.
What makes Watson so unique is that he has been able to produce (and win) behind arguably the worst offensive line in the league. Give him the protection that someone like Mahomes or Brees gets, and we could see historical numbers from the former National Champion. Watson is just 23 years old, and his best football is still ahead of him. That should be quite a terrifying thought for opposing defenses.
7. QB Matt Ryan, Jacksonville Jaguars
The top six was pretty easy to decipher this year. But after those six players, the list gets much, much more difficult to sort out. Do you gamble on a young quarterback or an elite quarterback in the mid-30s?
I went with Ryan, who just turned 34 years old. He has turned into one of the best and most consistent quarterbacks in the NFL, posting a passer rating of 105.7 over the last three seasons. While he may not be as dynamic or have the same upside as some of the other players on this list, he’s simply one of the most reliable passers in the NFL.
Ryan’s not quite as established as a Tom Brady or Drew Brees, but he is significantly younger. He still has several high-caliber seasons left in the league and is a safe pick here at No. 7.
8. QB Carson Wentz, Detroit Lions
Figuring out Wentz’s value remains difficult. When he is on the field, he shows an MVP-type of ceiling. Over the last two seasons, he’s completed nearly 65 percent of his passes and has posted a passer rating of 102.
However, staying on the field has been a problem for Wentz. He missed time in college with a broken wrist. He tore his ACL and LCL in 2017 and then suffered a season-ending back injury in 2018.
The injury history is scary, but the talent is undeniable. But at this stage in the draft, he is too good to pass on.
9. QB Dak Prescott, Buffalo Bills
Prescott is one of the toughest quarterbacks to rank. Who you talk to or what you value in a quarterback can alter your thoughts on Prescott.
However, one thing that can’t be denied is his production. Since entering the league, he’s never missed a game and has a career passer rating of 96. He’s a threat on the ground (18 career rushing touchdowns) and has proven to be clutch at the end of games.
At just the age of 25, we still haven’t seen Prescott’s ceiling yet. There are certainly quarterbacks on this list with more upside, but Prescott’s youth, reliability, and durability make him a top-10 pick.
10. QB Jared Goff, Denver Broncos
It’s not hard to make a case that Goff should be higher on this list. At just the age of 24, he’s posted back-to-back seasons with a passer rating of at least 100 and has led the Rams to consecutive 11-plus win seasons.
However, there is still some doubt from me (and others across the league) that he is more of a Sean McVay creation, rather than an elite standalone passer. But at this point in the draft, you are gambling on his youth and career production.
11. QB Sam Darnold, Cincinnati Bengals
This is where things get tricky. Brady, Brees, Phillip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger are all still on the board. But those quarterbacks are down to just their last few years in the NFL, and all three are ready to dramatically decline as players.
Instead of drafting an older quarterback, teams would likely gamble on the upside of a young QB, and one player that could be selected higher than most people think is Darnold.
Darnold’s rookie year was rough as he completed less than 58 percent of his passes and had a passer rating of just 77.6. However, he showed signs of improvement in December, throwing six touchdown passes to only one interception in his final four games.
At just 21 years old, he is one of the youngest quarterbacks in the league. There is obviously some risk here, but the upside is massive.
12. QB Kyler Murray, Green Bay Packers
Finally, the No. 1 pick from the 2019 NFL draft comes off the board. Murray was the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner after he put up historic numbers at Oklahoma. But where would the first pick be selected in a draft like this? It would almost entirely depend on the team and the scheme fit.
However, given his upside and his youth, he’s worth a pick anytime after the top-10 picks. Look for Murray to make an immediate impact in the NFL as he has a lethal combination of arm talent and mobility.
13. QB Kirk Cousins, Miami Dolphins
This is where things get tricky. Every non-QB is still on the board, including the likes of Aaron Donald, Khalil Mack, and Myles Garrett, but there are some proven quarterbacks still available. However, it still feels a tad early to ignore quarterback for the Dolphins.
That’s why Cousins gets the nod at No. 13 to Miami. While Cousins is unspectacular at times, he is reliable and consistent. He hasn’t missed a start in the past four seasons, and he has a passer rating of 98.1 during that stretch.
At 30 years old, Cousins still has a lot of high-quality football ahead of him and is a fine selection anytime after the top 10 quarterbacks go off the board.
14. QB Cam Newton, Atlanta Falcons
Slotting Newton in a draft like this is incredibly difficult. On talent alone, you can make a case that he should be a top-10 selection. He’s a former MVP who led his team to the Super Bowl in 2015.
However, he has struggled with some injuries over the last few seasons, and it has impacted his play. Since his MVP season, Newton has a passer rating of just 83.3 and he has completed less than 60 percent of his passes. But due to his outstanding athleticism and arm talent, he’s still worth taking a shot on after the top 12 quarterbacks.
15. QB Matthew Stafford, Washington Redskins
The knock on Stafford early in his career was that he couldn’t stay healthy. But he has quickly smashed that narrative, starting every game over the last eight seasons.
Stafford has been a volume monster over the last several years, throwing for nearly 36,000 yards over the past eight seasons. But that hasn’t always translated into wins as he has a losing record as a starting quarterback in the NFL.
However, he has been forced to play on some bad teams, causing him to do too much at times. Stafford at No. 15 seems like the right spot considering his consistency and talent level.
16. DT Aaron Donald, Carolina Panthers
At this point in the draft, it’s just too difficult to pass on someone like Donald. At just the age of 28, Donald has already been named to the Pro Bowl five times and has been the Defensive Player of the Year in back-to-back seasons.
Without any top-tier quarterbacks available who aren’t in their late 30s or 40s, Donald is an easy selection here at No. 16.
17. QB Jimmy Garoppolo, Cleveland Browns
Last year, Garoppolo’s name appeared inside the top 10 as he was coming off an incredible – albeit brief – season with the 49ers in which he won all five of his starts. But after tearing his ACL in the third week of the 2018 season, his stock has dropped quite a bit.
However, he’s still only 27 years old, and his best football is still ahead of him. 2019 is a big year for him, but expect him to bounce back in a big way.
18. QB Derek Carr, Minnesota Vikings
Deciding where to put Carr is incredibly difficult because the opinions on him are all over the map. Many believe Carr is still one of the best young quarterbacks in the league and he is only improving. Others think he’s already peaked and is a “limbo” quarterback.
But at 28 years old, there is still some upside here. Since 2015, Carr has a passer rating of 92.1 and has completed 64.1 percent of his passes in that time. Carr isn’t the most dynamic passer in the world, but after the top-16 picks or so, it’s pretty easy to make a case for Carr.
19. DE Myles Garrett, Tennessee Titans
The next non-quarterback to come off the board is defensive end Myles Garrett. In his second season, Garrett totaled 29 quarterback hits, 13.5 sacks, and three forced fumbles.
At just the age of 23, Garrett is well on his way to becoming the league’s best edge rusher. Considering his upside, athleticism, and production, Garrett is an excellent pick inside of the top 20 selections.
20. DE Khalil Mack, Pittsburgh Steelers
Mack can make a strong case to be the first defensive player drafted. After being traded from the Raiders to the Bears, Mack was as dominant as ever. In 13 starts, Mack tallied 12.5 sacks, six forced fumbles, and four pass deflections.
Mack requires constant attention, and he can take over games with his ability to rush the passer, stop the run and make plays in coverage. He is just 28 years old and fits into any scheme. Mack would be a lock first-round pick in a draft like this.
21. QB Mitchell Trubisky, Seattle Seahawks
In his second year in the NFL, Trubisky dramatically improved as a passer in Matt Nagy’s offense. He completed nearly 67 percent of his passes and had a passer rating of 95.4. He’s also a dynamic runner, adding another 421 yards and three touchdowns on the ground.
Still, there are some worries that Trubisky is a limited quarterback who struggles with decision-making and accuracy. But considering his talent, athleticism, and age (24), it’s not hard to make a case that he should be selected even higher than No. 21.
22. QB Philip Rivers, Baltimore Ravens
The next veteran quarterback to come off the board is Rivers, who turned 37 in December. While his clearly in the twilight of his career, he’s still playing outstanding football. He hasn’t missed a game since 2005, and he has become one of the league’s most efficient quarterbacks as of late.
In 2018, Rivers completed more than 68 percent of his passes, finishing the season with 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions in what was arguably the best season of his career.
Because of his play style, it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him play well into his 40s. He’s a cerebral passer who wins with accuracy and ball-placement, rather than arm strength. Rivers is a value selection at this stage of the first round.
23. CB Denzel Ward, Houston Texans
Over the last few seasons, there has been an emphasis on coverage in the NFL. Cornerbacks who can take away elite receivers and/or take the ball away are so difficult to find. That’s what makes second-year cornerback Denzel Ward so special.
As a rookie, Ward recorded three interceptions, as well as 11 pass deflections and one forced fumble. He’s the perfect modern day cornerback as he can mirror any receiver and is a physical tackler in the run game.
He’s arguably the best cornerback in the league, and at just 22 years old, Ward is a lock to be one of the top 32 players selected in an NFL redraft.
24. QB Ben Roethlisberger, Chicago Bears
Another veteran quarterback comes off the board, and it’s Roethlisberger, who is entering his 15th season in the NFL.
While Roethlisberger has always struggled with turnovers and durability concerns, he has become a reasonably consistent passer. He’s had 10 straight seasons with a passer rating of at least 90, and he’s averaged over 7 yards per attempt in every season of his career.
At the age of 37, Roethlisberger is down to just a few more years in the NFL, but he is still a premier passer and a value at this stage of the draft.
25. QB Drew Brees, Philadelphia Eagles
How much longer will Brees play? The answer to that question will determine how high (or low) he would be selected. If the answer is around three years, he would deservingly go much higher.
At 39 years old, Brees just posted the highest passer rating of his career (115.7), and he completed an absurd 74.4 percent of his passes. Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFL and is worth a selection here, even if it’s only for a year or two.
26. QB Tom Brady, Indianapolis Colts
At this point in his career, it’s hard to make a case for anyone other than Brady being the league’s best quarterback. With six Super Bowl wins, 14 Pro Bowl selections and three MVP awards, Brady continues to rack up the accomplishments.
But where would we be selected in a draft like this? It’s tough to see him not going in the first round, despite his age (41). Any team selecting him knows their Super Bowl window would be short, but it’s just too difficult to pass on a leader and a player like Brady. While he likely wouldn’t go until after the top 20 selections, Brady is a fine pick at the bottom of the first round.
27. QB Josh Allen, Dallas Cowboys
Allen had an incredibly fascinating rookie season. He started 11 games for the Bills, throwing just 10 touchdown passes to 12 interceptions. He completed less than 53 percent of his passes and averaged a mediocre 6.5 yards per attempt.
However, he was somehow more effective than his stats suggest. Allen rushed for 631 yards and 8 touchdowns, averaging more than 52 yards on the ground per game.
Given his athleticism and arm talent, he is difficult to project going forward. But at the bottom of the first round, this is where Allen makes some sense.
28. QB Lamar Jackson, Los Angeles Chargers
Jackson had one of the most unique rookie seasons we have ever seen from a quarterback. As soon as he was inserted into the starting lineup, the Ravens got hot. Baltimore went 6-1 in the seven games that Jackson started, losing only to the Chiefs in Kansas City in an overtime game.
However, there are still some concerns about just how good of a passer Jackson can be in the NFL. As a rookie, he completed 58.2 percent of his passes and did almost all of his work in the run game. But Jackson is a player who has improved in every season as a passer, dating back to high school. Look for him to make a big jump in Year 2 in the passing game.
29. QB Dwayne Haskins, Kansas City Chiefs
For a few months this winter, it appeared Haskins was a lock to go inside the top five of the 2019 draft. However, he slipped to the middle of the first round and was snagged by the Washington Redskins.
Haskins was a highly-productive quarterback at Ohio State, accounting for 50 touchdowns in his redshirt sophomore season. While he may not have the same upside or athleticism as other quarterbacks on this list, Haskins is likely going to be an above-average starter for years to come. At the end of the first round, he is a worthwhile risk.
30. DE Danielle Hunter, New Orleans Saints
The next positional player to come off the board is defensive end Danielle Hunter. After a quiet collegiate career, Hunter has quickly established himself as one of the best defensive ends in all of the NFL.
In 2018, Hunter recorded 14.5 sacks at just the age of 24. He already has 40 career sacks, and it appears his best football is still ahead of him. With outstanding athleticism and size, Hunter has the chance to be arguably the best defensive player in the NFL. Look for him to be much higher on this list at this time next season.
31. CB Jalen Ramsey, Los Angeles Rams
A year ago, Ramsey would have been much higher on this list. While the third-year cornerback had another Pro Bowl season, he just wasn’t as dynamic as he was in 2017. He still finished the season with 65 tackles, 13 pass deflections, and three interceptions as he was named to the Pro Bowl for the second time in his career.
Nevertheless, the 24-year-old cornerback is still one of the best defensive backs in the NFL, and his ability to take the ball away is impressive. Not only can he dominate on the outside against the best receivers, but he can play in the slot if needed or as a safety.
It’s not hard to make the case that Ramsey should be the No. 1 defensive back on the board as he has produced at an elite level in all three seasons in the NFL.
32. DL J.J. Watt, New England Patriots
Watt’s best football may be behind him, but he continues to be one of the most dominant players in the entire NFL. During the 2018 season, he recorded 25 quarterback hits, 16 sacks, and seven forced fumbles. In Bill Belichick’s scheme, he would be moved all over the field to create mismatches.
Despite two years of virtually no production, Watt looked like his former self last season and is still one of the best positional players in all of the NFL.
