There is no question about which is the most obvious pick for the Betfred Mile, the big betting race on day four at Glorious Goodwood. Franklin D, carrying only a 3lb penalty for an easy win at Newmarket a fortnight ago, clearly had a terrific chance even before he was granted the plum inside draw in the stall one berth.
But his odds are now unappealingly skinny at 100-30, considering this 20-runner handicap is nearly always closely fought. With Ryan Moore due to ride and being from the Michael Bell yard that won Thursday’s big race, his odds may shorten further.
In view of all that can go wrong around Goodwood it is hard to take such short odds for a race like this. Red Avenger (3.10) at 25-1 is at the preferred end of the market. Has it been forgotten that he won this race two years ago from a 1lb higher mark?
Of course, there have been many reverses since then, including a 15-length defeat here on his reappearance in May. But the Gary Moore-trained selection was beaten as far in that race last year before scoring at Newcastle the following month from the same mark he has now.
It is to be hoped that Thursday’s rain has not made too much difference to the ground because the fast surface that prevailed earlier in the week would be ideal for Red Avenger. He is handily drawn in stall three, should race prominently and miss the inevitable trouble behind and looks a very fair each-way play at those odds.
2.00 Goodwood Kings Fete, from the Sir Michael Stoute yard, is the likely favourite here, as all those who feel they were robbed at Royal Ascot try to get it back. A close third despite the interference he suffered, he ran a mighty race on only his second start after a 20-month absence but there is a risk he may just lack the necessary pace in these different circumstances. Who, after all, wants to take a short price about a horse that has not won for two years? So Mount Logan might be the way to go, in view of his perfect record of three wins from three visits to Goodwood, including a Listed contest over this course and distance in May. This is a step down in class from the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, in which he was a fair fourth last time. The first two from that race have since been first and third in the King George.
2.35 Goodwood The only defeat of Thikriyaat in four starts has been in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, when he stayed on strongly but too late and was second behind Ribchester. That form looks rather better than it did, the winner having been beaten only half a length in the Sussex Stakes here on Wednesday, and Thikriyaat can continue his progress now that he is stepped up to a mile, which his running style suggests should suit. Stoute’s runner had only a head in hand over Forge at Ascot and just a neck over Dragon Mall from his Newmarket win in May but the impression given is that he has lots more still to offer.
3.45 Goodwood Understandably the youngsters Marsha and Easton Angel head the betting after their Listed-race tussle in the City Wall Stakes at York last time but it wouldn’t do to forget about the seven-year-old Goldream, who looks an appealing 9-1 shot. Yes, he needs to be forgiven a couple of poor efforts at Meydan in March but that is easily done as his trainer, Robert Cowell, said between those runs that he had failed to acclimatise in Dubai. The veteran sprinter might just need this return to action but that risk is more than reflected in his odds. He is a dual Group One winner from last year, meeting lesser rivals at level weights.
