LAST week the Bureau of Meterology issued its latest analysis of the balance between the drier El Nino and the wetter La Nina.
"Despite weakening, La Nina is still likely to influence Australian rainfall patterns, with above average rainfall forecast for parts of eastern and northern Australia," the bureau said.
This prediction was quickly fulfilled, with steady-to- torrential rain across much of the state in recent days, and with further downpours to come.
Premier Gladys Berejiklian said yesterday that some of the worst hit areas are experiencing once-in-a-century rainfall, with other parts of the coast and ranges hitting once-in-50-year levels.
If there has been a saving grace, it's been the high pressure system that has accompanied the rain, meaning more moderate east and nor-east winds instead of the damaging, storm-driven southerlies associated with the usual cooler weather rainmaker in this part of the world - the east coast low.
That said, there have been isolated areas hit hard by wind. A "mini tornado" ripped through Sydney's Chester Hill on Saturday morning, and the bureau's synoptic maps show a low-pressure system developing in the Tasman Sea later in the week.
Such sustained rainfall - 200mm to 300mm in 24 hours has not been unusual - comes as something of a shock after years in which drought has been the dominant climate narrative.
The downpours of recent days are breaking rainfall records in a range of regions, with the State Emergency Service and other rescue bodies working overtime coping with emergency evacuations as well as the more general preparations for widespread flooding and inundation.
It should not need reinforcing, but everyone should remember that weather such as this carries life-threatening potential.
So we should stay indoors, and avoid travelling unless it is absolutely necessary. In this digital age, there are ample ways to keep abreast of fast-moving situations: there is usually no real need to go for a sticky-beak.
It will take until the waters recede before the full level of damage is revealed, and the insurance assessors begin to take stock.
But we have been in this position before, and will make our way through this "weather event" knowing that adversity - as unwanted as it is - can bring out the best in our community.
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