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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Chris Tryhorn

Recession watch: poor outlook for ad firms

The advertising and marketing group Aegis warned today that despite "healthy" results for the first nine months of 2008, it could not forecast what its clients would be spending in the remaining three months of the year.

Current uncertainty in financial markets and the more negative outlook for the global economy make it difficult to forecast accurate levels of client spend for the fourth quarter.

"This is our most significant trading period, with seasonally higher advertising volumes, project close-outs and determination of performance-related incentives," Aegis said in a statement.

"As a result of this reduced visibility, we have become more cautious about the outcome for the full year."

The shares took a tumble on this somewhat gloomy assessment, dropping more than 13% at one point to 55p before rallying to 59p.

"With a number of quarters of negative revenue growth ahead, three are no obvious catalysts for the shares to bounce sustainably," said Alex de Groote, a media analyst at Panmure Gordon.

"That said, we retain a buy [recommendation] above all because Aegis owns a number of strategic assets in digital marketing services, and market research."

Meanwhile, across the channel, the French advertising group Publicis predicted a "marked slowdown" in the ad industry next year.

Third-quarter revenue at the group fell 1.5%, partly because of the dollar and pound's weakness against the euro.

"We believe our industry will face a difficult end of 2008 and a marked slowdown in 2009," the Publicis chairman and chief executive Maurice Levy said in a statement.

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