Can our hemlines tell us something about our economies?
Predicting a recession is tricky business, but economists have methods of measuring the plausibility of an economic downturn. These are called “recession indicators” and include factors such as declining consumer confidence, credit card late payments and business uncertainty.
But in recent weeks, a flurry of memes and TikToks have emerged with alternative economic analysis, making the case that everything from spikes in lipstick purchases to longer skirt lengths indicates a brewing recession.
While this might sound like something out of Confessions of a Shopaholic, these social shifts may be valuable indicators of the state of our economies. According to Forbes, “monitoring these trends is essential, as they will likely affect your job”.
What recession indicators should we be looking out for?
Men’s underwear
Men may be less likely to splash out on new underwear during economic hardship. Euromonitor data reveals that men’s underwear sales dropped during the Great Recession and during the pandemic, when people cut back on non-essential purchases.
Lipstick
@selfcarecoka #greenscreen I know I’m not the only one who starts spending money frivolously when I’m stressed 😭 #lipstickindex #beautyindustry #businesstok #beautybusiness #economics
♬ Blade Runner 2049 - Synthwave Goose
However, not all recession indicators relate to spending declines. The “lipstick index,” coined by Leonard Lauder (son of Estée Lauder), theorises that women spend more on affordable luxury items, including lipstick, during economic hardship. The idea is that these purchases make people feel good during economic uncertainty.
"Being short of money is psychologically daunting for people and the way to make yourself feel better, even if it's ever so little, is to purchase something that you think will cheer you up," Dr Jansson-Boyd, an associate professor in consumer psychology at Anglia Ruskin University, told the BBC.
However, the lipstick index has not been a reliable indicator in recent periods of economic downturn. Sales dropped during the financial crisis and during the pandemic, according to the Kline Cosmetics and Toiletries USA report.
Champagne
It will be unsurprising that champagne sales reportedly drop during a recession, when people strapped for cash choose cheaper booze instead.
Hair Dye
@brookeblackwelll ♬ Black _ Pearl Jam - ranchorgz
Also, unsurprisingly, fewer people get their hair dyed when money is tight. Following the 2008 financial crash, the term “recession hair” emerged, describing the less-kept hairstyles resulting from people missing haircut and styling appointments. The term was reinvented in 2025, with TikTokers identifying darker-tinted blonde hair as “recession blonde”.
Hemlines
@gabis_vintage Do YOU believe the “hemline index theory”?! 💰📏 😬 #vintage #vintagefashion #fashionhistory #hemlineindex #1960sfashion #1970sfashion #1980sfashion #miniskirt #maxiskirt #midiskirt
♬ Walking Around - Instrumental Version - Eldar Kedem
The “hemline index” theory suggests that hemlines increase when the economy is doing well, and drop during periods of economic crisis.
“In the 1920s, hemlines rose with the stock market before falling during the Great Depression. They climbed back up in the mid-1930s and stayed knee-length during the supposed wartime boom of the 1940s,” InStyle reported.
“When Dior released long, voluminous skirts in 1947, the trend seemed to foreshadow the recession of 1949. Then, once the market righted itself, a slow and steady rise began, introducing us to the minis of the ‘60s, which stuck around through the ‘80s millionaire boom. Eventually, mid-lengths popped up when the stock market crashed in 1987.”
