Summers in Europe since 1986 have probably been the hottest in two millennia, according to a scientific suvey.
Extensive research, using a combination of historical records and tree ring analysis, has found that the mean temperature has been 1.3 degrees warmer in the last 30 years, and this has been accompanied by an increase in “severe” heat waves.
These recent summers have been “unusually warm in the context of the last two millennia and there are no 30-year periods in either reconstruction that exceed the mean average European summer temperature of the last three decades".
According to the findings, published in Environmental Research Letters, the likelihood of heatwaves and extremely hot weather has significantly increased due to human, rather than natural, factors.
The study claims that the mean summer temperatures across Europe "appear to reflect the influence of external forcing during periods", or, to put it another way, are the result of man-made climate change.
The scientists found that such climate-change was particularly visible in southern Europe as the “variability is generally smaller” and so the effects of human behaviour are “expected to emerge earlier”.
The paper also offers extensive analysis of other factors, such as volcanic, solar and greenhouse-gas changes, but none of these appear to have had nearly as much influence on the temperature increases as we have.
Those working on the study hope that continued reconstructions will pave the way for investigations beyond the last millennium.
Looking to the future the scientists say that “forcings such as volcanic aerosols, solar and land-use change are expected to have unique fingerprints of temperature change, potentially affecting some areas of Europe more than others”.
They plan to further investigate the effects of natural and external factors to better understand the climate in Europe.
