Just hours before the biggest rebellion of his premiership, one of Boris Johnson’s key allies was asked about the possibility of a challenge to the prime minister’s position. “It is a very difficult thing to do, as you may remember with the previous incumbent,” said Jacob Rees-Mogg, speaking on his Moggcast podcast on ConservativeHome.
It is indeed a tough hurdle to get more than 50 sitting Conservative MPs to submit no confidence letters in their leader and prime minister. But as in the case of Theresa May, ousted by Rees-Mogg and his allies, it is not insurmountable.
Anti-Johnson feeling on the backbenches is running high partly because of his botched handling of sleaze scandals and the furore over lockdown parties in Downing Street. However, an equally sizeable reason for discontent is rightwing, libertarian MPs unhappy with the ideological basis for Covid restrictions.
Rees-Mogg remains very loyal to the prime minister but at the same time made no attempt in his podcast to deny the existence of a mutinous mood within the Tory ranks in parliament.
The prime minister personally pleaded with the 1922 Committee of Tory backbenchers to back his plan B measures before the vote on Tuesday evening. But nearly 100 Tory MPs directly challenged his authority by voting against Covid passports for entry to nightclubs and other large venues. That means almost a third of all Tory MPs and most backbenchers have now put the prime minister on notice that they are extremely unhappy with the idea of further restrictions.
Since Brexit, the Tory party has thrown out its more centre-right, moderate voices. As a direct consequence, the main strain of opinion in the Conservatives is now inherently more lockdown-sceptic, freedom-loving, anti-mask than the party of David Cameron might have been.
If Johnson does need to opt for stricter, plan C measures in the face of a rising tide of Omicron, he will find himself in the same position as May did over Brexit – attempting to rely on Labour votes in the face of a revolt on the right.
Tory MPs voted through lockdowns over the last two years reluctantly but their patience has clearly run thin and their organisation is increasing under the leadership of Steve Baker and Mark Harper, with their Covid Recovery Group – which has become something of a successor to the European Research Group.
As a last-minute concession on Tuesday, they forced a promise out of the prime minister that he would return to parliament to seek the permission of MPs if he wanted to go for further restrictions – and continued to defy him on plan B anyway.
Johnson himself might be intellectually of this mindset but ideology is hard to stick to when the UK’s most senior scientists and medics are warning of the human disaster of an NHS potentially overwhelmed and many unnecessary deaths.
In contrast, senior cabinet colleagues from Rishi Sunak to Liz Truss may see the attraction of aligning themselves with the rule-sceptic backbenchers if they have one eye on a future leadership vacancy, especially if they sense that Johnson is weakening.
Rees-Mogg, who is naturally on that side of the party, on Monday gave a clear signal to backbenchers that he remained one of them. “You have to learn to live with Covid in the end. We cannot switch the economy off and on every few months. Life is about taking risk,” he told the Moggcast.
All of that adds up to considerable pressure on Johnson in the months ahead to align himself with those sceptical of Covid rules. If he wants to keep his position and retain the confidence of his parliamentary party, there will be a huge temptation for the prime minister to continue to keep restrictions to the bare minimum.
However, pressure from the scientists, public health experts and medics is also increasing for a tougher approach. The question will be whether the public – weary of Covid rules – is ready for a shift towards living with high rates of Covid infections and a certain level of deaths, or will ultimately blame the prime minister and his party for failing to stop that.
