Reasons to be cheerful
1 The world really wants a strong deal and this time will get it
There is a universal will to limit emissions, governments understand the science and know that doing nothing is no longer a political or moral option. Evidence of climate change has grown since the Copenhagen summit in 2009, and 2015 has already been declared the hottest year on record. The threat from climate change is also much better understood by the public and this gives politicians the legitimacy to be bold. Non-governmental groups have created a sense of destiny about the Paris talks, pressing the idea that this is the last chance for the world to act to avoid catastrophic change and that a deal is certain. “Our time has come,” says Todd Stern, the US special envoy for climate change, urging all countries to compromise this week.
2 A green economy makes financial sense
A bold new international deal committing all countries to reduce emissions is in everyone’s long-term economic interests. It will signal to business that governments are legally committed to reducing emissions and will give the private sector and banks the long-term confidence they need to invest in renewable energies and conservation. It should steer financiers, technologists and others away from extracting oil, gas and coal, and towards the development of clean energy. Should large carbon markets also emerge, as big business and the UN want, and should rich countries make good on their pledge to mobilise $100bn a year for poor countries to adapt to climate change by 2020, then the long-promised global “green economy” should grow fast, benefiting everyone.
Renewable energy technologies are moving ahead much faster than imagined. The cost of wind and solar power in many countries is roughly the same as coal or gas, making the switch to green energy and lower emissions much easier for politicians to justify to electorates. Within 20 years, it is expected that renewable energy prices will fall further, while fossil fuel energy will grow comparatively more expensive. Breakthroughs in solar and battery technologies that will make renewable energy even more attractive are likely.
3 Nations are ready to commit to real change
Most countries have already stated their intentions. More than 180 countries, representing 90% of global emissions, have submitted their national plans to cut emissions. This is the first time since climate negotiations started 20 years ago that nearly all the world’s nations have committed to being part of the solution. By comparison, the 1997 Kyoto protocol included pledges for reductions by 37 rich countries which together represented well under half of all global emissions. Kyoto did not include the US, which refused to sign up, or China, the world’s two largest emitters. With the key players on board, victory is within the world’s grasp.
4 The text is manageable
The chances of diplomatic success are much higher than in Copenhagen in 2009, which was billed as the finale of years of talks but ended in diplomatic chaos. The text that negotiators and politicians from 195 countries will haggle over in Paris is shorter and more focused and many difficult decisions have already been made.
The positions of the main emitting countries, such as the United States and China, are closer to each other than in the past, so it should be easier to reach a compromise. France, as the host country, is experienced at international negotiations and has ensured that many of the potentially tough decisions, such as finance and the final target, can be put back to later meetings. This will allow, at the very least, a weak deal to be signed, with a stated guarantee that it can be improved later.
5 We’re all in it together
The recent Paris terrorist attacks will galvanise the 143-plus world leaders due to arrive in the city in the next 24 hours to make a global statement of solidarity and provide the political impetus to secure a strong deal. No country will want to be identified as the one that stopped a deal. “Paris will soon be known as the place where world leaders stood together on the right side of history,” says Jim Yong Kim, the president of the World Bank.
Reasons to be fearful
1 Countries may not make the necessary compromises
Prince Charles and more than 140 presidents, prime ministers and heads of state will make short, bland statements on Monday about the need to act, after which negotiators and politicians will have only a few working days to reach diplomatic agreement.
Given that it has taken 20 years to reach this point, there is little chance that the gaps between countries can be closed in a few days. So the only way any deal can be reached in Paris is if the UN and France, as the hosts, bludgeon through a least-worst agreement over the heads of the many.
2 The fat lady has already sung
The cuts that 180 countries have said they are prepared to make up to 2030 will hold global temperatures only to a 2.7C rise. The absolute maximum rise, if catastrophic warming by the end of the century is to be averted, is thought to be 2C. More than 100 countries have said they want the UN to set the more ambitious global target of 1.5C. For them, anything that does not guarantee this will be seen as a failure of negotiations.
3 Who will bear the biggest burden?
Countries are still split on key issues such as reducing emissions, finance and technology. With so many major differences, it will take a heroic effort to reach any deal. The most important hurdle could be over whether industrialised countries should be obliged to cut more than developing countries.
India, on behalf of poor countries, will argue that there must be “differentiation” between rich and poor; but the US wants only voluntary targets applicable to all. A collision is inevitable.
4 Where’s the money?
Many of the ambitious plans to cut emissions depend on up to $1 trillion (£1.1tn) being made available to invest in renewable energy, farming and forestry. This will depend on flows from new carbon markets and other risky financial sources. In addition, only $57bn of the $100bn pledged to be “mobilised” by rich countries to help poor countries adapt to a warming world has been identified. Developing countries are not going to roll over without financial guarantees.
5 Short-term self-interest could win out
There is a genuine will to tackle climate change but not at any price, and many rich countries delude themselves if they think that climate change and reducing emissions is a high priority for everyone.
These talks have been going on for many years and there is still a deep distrust of the way the US and others have avoided having to change their lifestyles but have bullied poor countries to shoulder the burden of cuts. Many countries resent this and want to determine their own development path. They fear the rich will not have to do much to reduce emissions but they will have to slow their growth. For them, poverty eradication and economic development are the most important elements of any deal, so they will seek guaranteed financial and technological support if they agree to anything.
Many oil-producing countries, led by Saudi Arabia, will also want a weak deal that will not devalue their natural assets. Some Latin American countries, such as Venezuela and Bolivia, will hold out in the name of climate justice for a deal that forces the rich to cut more than the poor. Negotiations are conducted by blocs of countries, consensus is necessary, and it is easy to derail the talks or to delay discussions to a point where no strong deal can be negotiated in the limited time available.
