The general consensus is that now that Easter and Anzac Day are behind us and with pre-polling starting on Monday, the prologue of the campaign is over and the real one begins.
The campaign has mostly gone as expected, but usually by now there has been some outrage over a person in a campaign advert who is actually an actor. It seems the parties this time round have decided to forego the fake-tradie outrage and have a fake policy outrage instead.
Mostly this campaign involved both parties (and much of the media) pretending to be outraged over things that are either fake or have been purposely mistaken.
Consider the response to Bill Shorten saying he would not impose any further taxes on superannuation. The Liberal party and many in the media called this a major gaffe given the ALP has long had a policy to change the taxation of superannuation. “Shorten doesn’t even know his own policies.”
Well, no.
In the press conference it was clear he was being asked about any new taxes to the ones that were already the ALP’s policy. Consider this was the exchange:
Journalist: Can you rule out no new or increased taxes on superannuation?
Shorten: We have no plans to increase taxes on superannuation.
Journalist: That’s different from ruling it out though.
Shorten: We have no plans to introduce any new taxes on superannuation.
Journalist: So will you rule it out?
Shorten: Sure.
Now maybe the journalist had no idea about Labor’s superannuation policy that has been around for nearly three years, but you would think if this actually meant that Shorten had forgotten or was announcing he had dumped his own policy someone in the press pack would twig.
And yet there were 16 more questions asked in that press conference and not one journalist thought they had witnessed a major policy shift or gaffe, for none asked another question about superannuation.
But we had to go through the whole “Shorten forgot his own policy” pretence – in which most in the media purposely sought to misunderstand the context so they could run the “Shorten had a bad day” line.
On the other side we had Labor accusing the Liberal party now being in favour of nuclear power because in an interview Scott Morrison suggested that while it was not on the agenda, when asked if a nuclear power company could propose opening a nuclear power station he replied: “well they can if it can pay its way”.
In reality no nuclear power station is at all close to viable without mass government subsidies, so Morrison’s position was not new. But again we had the pretence that this really meant the LNP might approve a nuclear power station.
The big problem with the Morrison government is not nuclear power but that the day before the election was called it approved a nuclear mine in WA that will have major adverse effects on native wildlife and groundwater. That is reality.
But we also had Labor announcing up to $1.5bn from the Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility to be used to unlock the gas supply of Beetaloo sub-basin to Darwin and the east coast.
It continues the pretence both parties have on climate change.
The LNP pretends climate change is a myth, while Labor pretends to want to act. And yes it has better policies (the easiest hurdle to clear) but for every move to reduce emissions, there is always one that will do more harm.
Then of course there is it the pretence about an estate tax – as ever called a “death tax”.
Neither Labor nor the Greens have any plans to introduce estate taxes, but why should we let facts get in the way? Election campaigns are now to be based around fake social media posts which are then turned into Liberal party adverts not all that far removed from Karl Rove style push polling.
The shame is that neither side will even consider introducing an estate tax despite the massive wealth inequality in this country. The LNP won’t because they favour landholders and the wealthy; Labor won’t because they know the LNP (with a great assist from most media outlets) will make great hay out of “death tax” lines and the truth will never get a look in.
At the moment the richest 1% hold more wealth than the bottom 70% of households, and yet a policy designed only to affect that 1% would be treated as though Labor was after everyone’s house. Never mind that it is a standard tax in most developed nations, no one has any confidence the issue will be treated with any rationality. And thus, because our political debate is so putrid, a good idea doesn’t even get to the starting gate.
But the biggest pretence occurring in this election is that everything is fine in the economy.
The most recent GDP figures show the economy grew more slowly in the December 2018 quarter than it has for 15 years. On a per-capita basis our economy actually shrunk over the last half of 2018. Household living standards are lower now than they were not just at the last election, but the one in 2013.
To top it off, this week the ABS revealed inflation ground to a halt, indicating an utter lack of demand in the economy – a state so bad the Reserve Bank is likely in May to reduce the cash rate to a new record low of 1.25%.
But both major parties continue their absurd argument over who will have the biggest surplus, and laughable fights over how much taxation will be raised from now till 2030 – none of which anyone actually believes are even close to real.
But the real has not had much of a run so far.
With the prologue over, let us hope this new stage of the campaign also marks the introduction of reality into the debate.
• Greg Jericho is a Guardian Australia columnist
