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Sports Illustrated

Sport

Roberto Casillas

Real Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid: Preview, Predictions and Lineups

Real Madrid Atletico Madrid Madrid Atlético Madrid Diego Simeone @Atleti Kylian Mbappé Los Blancos La Liga Álvaro Arbeloa

La Liga goes into the March international break with one of the biggest games of the season, as Real Madrid host Atlético Madrid on Sunday night in a derby of critical importance.

Álvaro Arbeloa’s men have found their mojo after convincingly eliminating Manchester City in the Champions League round of 16. A 3–0 first leg win was followed up by a 2–1 victory away at the Etihad, and Los Blancos suddenly look back to their best.

Meanwhile Atlético Madrid are also feeling themselves after making light work of Tottenham Hotspur to progress in Europe. Now, Diego Simeone’s side will be looking to make it five straight wins in La Liga against their bitter rivals.

Real Madrid beat Atléti in the Spanish Super Cup semifinals, getting revenge after getting humiliated 5–2 in the reverse fixture back in September. In the third Madrid derby of the term, Arbeloa will make his rivalry debut in the dugout.

Dropping points against Atlético could be devastating for Los Blancos’ La Liga title charge. Currently four points back of Barcelona, Real Madrid will be motivated to extend the positive momentum going into the international break.

Real Madrid vs. Atlético Madrid Score Prediction

Los Blancos Unable to End Negative Madrid Derby Run

Vinicius Junior, Alex Baena dn Marcos Llorente — Tempers are bound to flare up in such a high-intensity derby. | Alvaro Medranda/Quality Sport Images/Getty Images

Sunday’s Madrid derby promises to be an epic battle between two teams that are seemingly hitting their stride at the perfect time. The trademark intensity of the rivalry will translate on the pitch, making for a stellar contest that could be defined by fine margins.

Los Blancos have the slight edge in overall quality, especially with the return of Kylian Mbappé. However, it’s these kind of games where Simeone unlocks the full potential of his gritty side, who almost always make life incredibly difficult for their rivals in their own backyard.

The way things have looked over the past month, very little separates these two sides, and that very well may end up materializing on the final scoreline of Sunday’s derby.

Recent Madrid Derby League Record: Los Blancos have failed to win against Atlético Madrid in their last six league meetings, with their most recent victory coming in 2022. The last three league derbies at the Bernabéu have ended 1–1.
Atléti’s In Form Attack: Simeone’s side are historically based on defensive solidity, but it’s Atléti’s attacking firepower that’s led the way as of late. Los Rojiblancos have scored 23 goals in their last nine games.
No Superhero in Goal: Thibaut Courtois will miss the clash after sustaining a muscular injury that will keep him out of the crucial derby. The Belgian shot-stopper is known to deliver on the big occasion, but an already compromised backline will have to make do without their savior between the posts.

Prediction: Real Madrid 2–2 Atlético Madrid

Real Madrid Predicted Lineup vs. Atlético Madrid

Real Madrid lineup — Mbappé is back to command the attack. | FotMob

Courtois is the latest addition to a crowded Real Madrid injury room, joining Ferland Mendy, Dani Ceballos and Rodrygo as the injury casualties for the derby.

Fortunately for Los Blancos, Álvaro Carreras, Éder Militão and Raúl Asencio should be back in the mix, but the biggest boost could be given by Jude Bellingham, who could play his first minutes since Feb. 1, although it’s hard to imagine him featuring from the start.

Mbappé also returned from injury midweek and after a 20-minute cameo, he should be back in the lineup eager to continue his devastating season in front of goal in the marquee clash.

Castilla graduate Thiago Pitarch keeps his places as he continues to take advantage of his opportunities, and Arda Güler could get the nod ahead of Eduardo Camavinga in Arbeloa’s fluid midfield.

Real Madrid predicted lineup vs. Atlético Madrid (4-4-2): Lunin; Alexander-Arnlold, Rüdiger, Huijsen, Carreras; Valverde, Pitarch, Tchouaméni, Güler; Mbappé, Vinicius Jr.

Atletico Madrid Predicted Lineup vs. Real Madrid

Atlético Madrid lineup. — Juan Musso’s form this season has made Atléti not miss Jan Oblak. | FotMob

The pair of midfield injuries to Pablo Barrios and Rodrigo Mendoza will likely force Simeone to deploy the versatile Marcos Llorente next to USMNT standout Johnny Cardoso in the midfield pivot.

This allows Nahuel Molina, whose screamer was the only goal in last weekend’s victory, to keep his place in the XI at right back. Like Los Blancos, Atléti will likely also be without their starting goalkeeper, as Jan Oblak faces a late fitness test to determine his status after missing the last two games.

Argentine shot stopper Juan Musso has done very well in Atléti’s Copa del Rey run this season, and Simeone might opt not to risk his injured starter, trusting Musso to deliver again.

Up front, Antoine Griezmann has rediscovered his best lately and should get the edge over Alexander Sørloth to partner the equally on-fire Julián Alvarez.