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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Scott Murray

Real Madrid, Chelsea and statistical shoo-ins

Our brave boys in Plaza Mayor on Tuesday.
Our brave boys in Plaza Mayor on Tuesday. Photograph: Nick Potts/PA

A REAL CHANCE?

Chelsea have had some great teams throughout the years, ever since the club was founded in 2003. But weirdly, neither of their two sides that landed Big Cup were, comparatively speaking, a particularly great vintage. The Fiver still has no idea how that first Mourinho team didn’t win the competition at least twice, for example, and it’s too simplistic to just blame Rafa Benítez and John Terry. Anyway, that’s not really the point, which is, they’re not that brilliant now either – Brentford, innit – and so The Fiver had assumed No 3 was a slam-dunk into the bag this year. But right now things aren’t looking so good. Huh? What gives?

Real Madrid is what gives. Madrid are the kings of Big Cup, with a lineage stretching from the days of Ferenc Puskás and Alfredo Di Stéfano to modern heroes such as cellular communication enthusiast Cristiano Ronaldo and Scottie Scheffler wannabe Gareth Bale. They’re past masters at getting the job done, and their route to yet another semi-final appearance looks rather-more-than-semi-assured after last week’s saunter up and down the King’s Rahd. Madrid have a 94.44% success rate when winning the first leg away in Europe, you see, while Chelsea’s win percentage after losing the opening skirmish at home is a whopping zero. Disappointment appears a statistical shoo-in, then, not that any of us needed a calculator to be aware that misery is inevitably coming down the track in one shape or another anyway.

But there is hope! While Los Merengues have only lost two of the 36 ties in which they’ve first secured an away win, they did make an awful sticky, crumbly, eggy mess of the bed just three years ago, when Ajax rocked up at the Bernabéu and put four past them to end their three-year run as Big Cup champions. Ajax’s first goal that evening was scored by a certain Hakim Ziyech, who will surely have spent most of the run-up to this match telling his Chelsea teammates that many of the Madrid side embarrassed in 2019 are still there, and can be got at. The only question being: is this Chelsea vintage good enough to take advantage? Their fans must hope so … but even if they’re not, history proves that being bang average usually turns out fine for them as well.

LIVE ON BIG WEBSITE!

Join Rob Smyth from 7.55pm BST for MBM coverage of Norn Iron 1-3 England in Women’s World Cup qualifying, before Scott Murray guides you through Real Madrid 2-1 Chelsea (agg 5-2) and Barry Glendenning takes the helm of Bayern Munich 3-0 Villarreal (agg 3-1) at 8pm.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I’ve been through everything. I had 25 radiation treatments. Then I had to wait five or six months to see if it had done its job. It did. I’ve been through a lot with illnesses, including with my own wife. So that’s just part of life. As a human being I have probably become richer because of all those experiences” – Louis van Gaal reveals that his treatment for an aggressive form of prostate cancer has been successful.

RECOMMENDED LOOKING

David Squires … Manchester City … Liverpool … hype … conspiracy theories … enjoy.

Typical, we had over-292 goals.
Typical, we had over-292 goals. Illustration: David Squires/The Guardian

RECOMMENDED LISTENING

Get your ears around Football Weekly! And while we’re at it – Max, Barry and the pod squad are going back out on tour. Tickets to live shows in June and July are available here so get buying.

MOVING THE GOALPOSTS

The Fiver has a new sister email, folks! It’s a weekly roundup of the wonderful world of women’s football called Moving the Goalposts. You don’t need to be told that it’s smarter and wittier than us – so sign up here. The first edition has already been sent whistling into inboxes but you can get a taste here.

FIVER LETTERS

“Whatever happened to Noble Francis?” – Geoff Jones.

“When reading the headline ‘Ancelotti defends leaving Everton’ (who have never played in Big Cup and last won the league in 1987) for Real Madrid (who, etc and so on), I can’t help but feel comforted that it’s not just me and that even if you are one of the greatest managers in the history of the game, you still have to waste your time at work explaining why you did the blatantly obvious” – Noble Francis [he’s like Candyman, Geoff – Fiver Ed].

“Re: yesterday’s Fiver. I moved to Australia in 2006 and watch a flamin’ lot of AFL and NRL. One of the most heartening and remarkable differences in sport over here is that the players always stand around and have a friendly chat with each other after the game. On the pitch. In front of fans. After they’ve just bashed the hell out of each other for an hour or two. It’s almost as if they don’t hate each other, like the media loves to tell us on a daily basis” – Stewart Heys.

“Was that really a full dose of Neil Warnock thrown into the Manchester City-Liverpool arena (yesterday’s Fiver)? I mean, that’s fine. But how about a shot of Ian Holloway injected into the weekend’s Everton-Manchester United dreckfest. Or a bit of ‘Arry Redknapp wiped on the Burnley-Norwich wound. That’s where some medicine is really needed” – Mike Wilner.

Send your letters to the.boss@theguardian.com. And you can always tweet The Fiver via @guardian_sport. Today’s winner of our prizeless letter o’ the day is … Stewart Heys.

NEWS, BITS AND BOBS

Freddy Rincón, the former Colombia captain, is in a critical condition with severe head injuries after being involved in a car crash in the city of Cali.

The SFA has declared itself “overwhelmed” by the generosity of Scotland fans after confirming that last month’s friendly against Poland had raised £500,000 to help the children of Ukraine.

Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca wants in at Chelsea. “Throughout my life and career, my ethos has always been to operate quietly, with integrity, and let my actions and results speak loudly,” cheered Pagliuca, whose consortium recently acquired a 55% stake in Atalanta, meaning both clubs would not be allowed to play in the same competition were a deal to go through.

Fernandinho is heading home to Brazil for good in the summer, which is apparently news to Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola. “Maybe it is a family decision, maybe he wants more minutes,” he tooted.

And Huddersfield are back to third in the Championship table after a 2-0 victory over Luton.

STILL WANT MORE?

Precisely 20 years on from the original release of Bend It Like Beckham, Rachel Hall on what this “cultural moment” meant for women’s football in the UK. Also out that day … Kevin Spacey in: K-Pax (“You’ll want to slap his silly, smug face,” wrote Peter Bradshaw).

20!
20! Photograph: Bskyb/Allstar

Carlo Ancelotti is a unique manager on the threshold of even more glory, notes The Fiver’s colleague Philipp Lahm.

Javier Aguirre is capably steering Mallorca towards shore as an Atlético upset capped a wild weekend in La Liga, bubbles Sid Lowe.

And if it’s your thing … you can follow Big Website on Big Social FaceSpace. And INSTACHAT, TOO!

NOTHING WILL HAPPEN UNLESS YOU MAKE IT HAPPEN

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