Tottenham need to recover a 1-0 deficit in Leipzig tonight.
Jose Mourinho's men need to score twice to go through (unless they progress via the the nerve shredding - but frankly unlikely - penalty shoot-out route).
Leipzig know that a goal from them would need the visitors having to score three times to progress.
Which all points to an Over 2.5 goals bet.
That's certainly the way the bookies see it, with thepools.com making Overs a 4/6 shout tonight .
The seasonal stats point that way, too, with 73 per cent of Spurs' away matches this season Over 2.5, three out of three in Europe landing that bet and 75 per cent of Leipzig's Bundesliga home matches producing three or more goals.
But that's over the course of the whole season.
More recently Leipzig have posted some significant 'low goals' score-lines.
And, of course, Tottenham are missing significant goal threats in Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son.
Three of Leipzig’s last four games in all competitions - and four of their last six - have actually gone Under 2.5 Goals.
That includes the 1-0 win at Tottenham in the 1st leg and 0-0 draws at Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg.
Leipzig are in pole position to reach their first ever Champions league quarter-final and will not be going gung ho.
Jose Mourinho is hardly likely to break the habits of a career and go for broke - so contesting the Overs market and taking the much more attractive 5/4 for Under 2.5 goals looks a solid bet.
Obviously one goal changes the entire dynamic of that bet.
So the corners market is also worth investigating.
Leipzig have played 15 home games in all competitions this season, and visiting teams have only managed to win the Most Corners twice.
Spurs have won the Most Corners in 10 of their 21 away games but again are unlikely to want to force the issue too much here.
Under 10.5 corners is 4/6 with thepools.com , while Leipzig have covered a -1 Corner Handicap in seven of their last 10 home games and that option is widely available at around 21/20.
