The Baltimore Ravens’ offense has been prolific this season, breaking franchise and NFL records seemingly every week. Led by quarterback Lamar Jackson and a unique scheme designed by offensive coordinator Greg Roman, Baltimore has been on a roll this season.
The Tennessee Titans will be looking for their second upset of the postseason after taking down the New England Patriots last week. Led by former Ravens defensive coordinator Dean Pees, the Titans will try to craft the answer to Jackson and Baltimore’s league-leading scoring offense.
Let’s break down the Ravens’ passing and rushing attack against the Titans’ defense to see who has the edge in this game.
Ravens’ rushing offense vs. Titans’ rushing defense:
The Ravens won their last 12 games thanks to their record-breaking rushing attack so we can expect them to lean heavily on this phase of the game against the Titans. But Tennessee is no slouch when defending the run and will likely be focusing on this aspect as their main key to the game.
Thanks to quarterback Lamar Jackson and running back Mark Ingram (and let’s not forget Gus Edwards), the Ravens averaged a league-leading 206 rushing yards per game in 2019, while featuring two 1,000-yard rushers for the first time in franchise history. Baltimore’s rushing attack is well balanced using Ingram and Edwards inside to bludgeon defenses while pushing Jackson and running back Justice Hill to the outside as the speed options. When combined with the misdirection of their RPO scheme and one of the best offensive lines in the league, they’ve been able to grind down even the best rush defenses seemingly at will.
Tennessee will be trying to become the first defense to create an answer to the equation. And by allowing just 104.5 rushing yards per game — the 12th lowest mark in the NFL this season — they shouldn’t be a cakewalk to run against. However, as we’ve seen several times this season against the top run defenses in the NFL, those stats can be misleading. The Titans haven’t gone up against as diverse a rushing attack as the Ravens employ and they’ll be tested outside, especially with the injury to linebacker Jayon Brown.
Baltimore enjoyed a great deal of success when rushing outside of the tackle box, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt to the left and 6.2 to the right. This is an area that the Titans showed some vulnerability, particularly to the left.
Behind an offensive line led by the likes of Marshal Yanda, the Ravens should be able to move the ball on the ground against the Titans.
Rushing edge: Ravens
Ravens’ passing offense vs. Titans’ passing defense:
Tennessee was pretty awful against the pass, allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game this season.
Opponents tended to use their underneath receivers against Pees’ unit, allowing the third-most receptions (103) to running backs this season. Baltimore began to use Ingram more in the receiving game in the second half of the regular season, seeing him catch 14 passes for 151 yards and all five of his receiving touchdowns from Week 9 on. If Ingram is able to play in this one, he could get a heavy dose of targets to take advantage of a defense that uses a lot of zone coverage with a single high safety and will be keeping eyes on Jackson in the backfield as a rushing threat.
The Titans allowed 916 receiving yards to tight ends, the seventh-most in the NFL. Teams targeted their tight ends against Tennessee on 21% of their pass attempts and were rewarded with an average of 7.8 yards per attempt –eighth-most in the league.
This is great news for Baltimore and their trio of trusty tight ends in particular. Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst and Nick Boyle commanded 42% of the Ravens’ targets in 2019 with Andrews leading the entire team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. This group, and in particular Andrews, should be in for a busy day if and when the Ravens are forced to throw the ball. Linebacker Jayon Brown is usually responsible in coverage for tight ends and is out with an injury, creating an even bigger mismatch in favor of Baltimore.
The Titans do have a weapon in safety Kevin Byard, which Jackson will have to be wary of when he goes to throw. Byard had five interceptions in the regular season and allowed only a 57.4% completion rate when targeted. But his 15.5 yards-per-completion allowed points to Byard being beatable in the right circumstances.
With the NFL’s most efficient scoring quarterback at the helm, the Ravens should be in good shape when throwing the football. As long as Jackson doesn’t force any passes, he should find someone open for modest gains on most downs.
Passing edge: Ravens
Overall — Ravens’ offense vs. Titans’ defense:
Thanks to Jackson making every play 11-on-11 football and creating indecision in defenders, no team has been able to entirely stop Baltimore’s offense this season. At best, teams with great defensive lines and deep secondaries have been able to limit the Ravens somewhat but Baltimore has still put up 20-plus points.
Tennessee simply doesn’t have the defensive talent of teams like the Buffalo Bills or San Francisco 49ers. With linebacker Jayon Brown being out and cornerback Adoree Jackson potentially being limited with an injury, the Titans have even bigger holes against the Ravens’ biggest strengths.
If Baltimore plays at all like they have this season, the Ravens should be able to march up and down the field with relative ease against Tennessee.
