It’s Week 17 of the NFL season and while it will not have the typical circumstances we have come to expect in this rivalry, the Baltimore Ravens will host the Pittsburgh Steelers in the regular-season finale.
Baltimore has already locked up the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and several starters will not play against the Steelers. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh still has an outside chance to sneak into the final AFC playoff spot. Even with quarterback Robert Griffin and the rest of the backups expected to get the majority of the playing time, you absolutely know that the Ravens would love to end the Steelers season definitively by beating them.
The Ravens opened as a one-point favorite but the line has since moved to have the Steelers as 2.5-point favorites now. Baltimore enters the contest on an 11-game winning streak, but the decision to rest the starters has made sportsbooks adjust accordingly. So who should you back this week? Continue on for this week’s best bets.
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Money line: Ravens +110
These are two teams with different goals this week. The Ravens are resting up for their playoff run, while Pittsburgh is basically in a must-win game. They can lose and still get in, but the scenario is unlikely.
Baltimore will be without Lamar Jackson, Mark Ingram and Marshal Yanda on offense, but Pittsburgh has injury issues of their own. Mason Rudolph is out for the season with a shoulder injury, and both Maurice Pouncey and James Conner have already been ruled out for this week. So why are the Steelers the favorite in this one?
Pittsburgh’s defense has been spectacular since the addition of safety Minkah Fitzpatrick but they’re coming off an embarrassing loss to the Jets. Baltimore is having its way with teams this season and it’s not as if Griffin, Gus Edwards, and the Ravens’ second team haven’t gotten a lot of playing time this year. They’ve played a lot for backups thanks both to injuries and Baltimore’s blowout wins giving them playing time in the fourth quarter.
We have only gotten three other games (Chiefs, Seahawks, and Patriots) this season in which the Ravens were the underdog. Considering Baltimore has won 11 straight, it seems like an easy choice to pick the home team again this week to keep it rolling.
Under: 38.5 points
The current total is the lowest of the year for any Ravens game. In fact, it is the only game this season in which the total was below 40 points. The total closed at 40.5 in the Week 1 drubbing of the Dolphins.
These are two of the best defensive units in the NFL. Pittsburgh is ranked fourth in total defense, allowing 304.1 yards per game. The Ravens are right behind the Steelers at No. 5, yielding 309.4 yards per contest. Both teams are ranked in the top 10 in both passing and rushing defense as well.
Pittsburgh has been in low scoring games all season long. Only five games have gone over 40 points and the last time a Steelers game did so was Week 9 against the Colts. The Ravens have been scoring in bunches for most of the season, but the NFL MVP will not play in this one which makes it hard to believe another blowout is upcoming.
Expect the Ravens to pound the rock a lot in this one and the points fall under the total.
Ravens over 0.5 first-quarter points: -154
The odds aren’t spectacular, but this is the closest thing to a sure bet. As noted in last week’s betting preview, the Ravens are usually out in front in a hurry. Baltimore has scored 10 or more points in the first quarter in nine games this season.
The Ravens have been held scoreless in the first quarter just three times this season. Surprisingly, they failed to score in the opening period in both meetings against the Browns. The Texans were the only other team to not allow the Ravens to put up points in the first quarter.
Expectations should be tempered a bit with backups expected to get most of the snaps, but let’s not forget that the Ravens still have one of the best weapons in football in Justin Tucker. Griffin is more than capable of getting Baltimore into field-goal range. This seems like the best bet of the weekend.
