The Baltimore Ravens have a short turnaround for Week 15 when they host the New York Jets on Thursday. Riding a nine-game winning streak and a firm hold on the top seed in the AFC, it is no surprise the Ravens are a heavy favorite.
Baltimore is a 14.5-point favorite against New York, the largest spread for them this season and fourth-largest number against the spread in Ravens history. They were a 13-point favorite in Week 2 against the Cardinals, which they failed to cover in the 23-17 win. With the win over the Bills, the Ravens are 6-1 against the spread the last seven weeks.
The Jets are coming off a 22-21 win against the Dolphins on a game-winning field goal as time expired. A week earlier, they gave the Bengals their first win of the season. New York did not cover the spread in either and their record against the spread now matches their record overall (5-8).
Home teams are 9-4 straight up in Thursday night games this year, but just 5-8 ATS. The underdogs have also been on the winning end for much of the season with a 9-4 mark ATS. The total is 7-6, in favor of the under this season.
What does this all mean? Stay away from the Ravens? Bet the under? Continue forward for the best bets for Week 15.
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ATS Pick: Ravens -14.5
Baltimore has played some of the NFL’s best in recent weeks, and if you throw out the game against the 49ers in bad conditions, they aren’t just winning, but covering the spread as well. They also have a bit of history on their side this week.
As noted earlier, this will be the fourth-largest spread in the Ravens history. Baltimore is 4-0 straight up and 2-2 ATS in those games. It is also one of the largest spreads for a Thursday game. It will be only the ninth time since 1990 a team has been favored by 14 or more points on a Thursday. The favored team is 6-2 ATS in the previous eight games.
The current season numbers all back the Ravens. New York is 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, and have lost six games by 14 or more points this season. That ties the Bengals and Giants more most in the NFL. On the flip side, Baltimore is 8-0 ATS all-time against the Jets. This is a bad Jets team. Baltimore wins convincingly.
Total: Under 44.5 Points
The Ravens are the top-scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 33.1 points per game, and fifth-ranked defense, allowing 18.2 points a game. The Jets are ranked 29th offensively, scoring 17.4 points a game, while allowing 23.2 a game. Long story short, advantage Ravens on both sides of the ball.
Baltimore should have no problem moving the ball against New York’s defense, but the Jets offense will struggle to put up points. This is the same team that struggled mightly to score against the Bengals and Dolphins the last two weeks. Don’t expect an offensive explosion from them on a short week against the hottest team in the league.
It is going to be another big win for the Ravens, but it will fall just under the total. Baltimore wins this game, 34-10.
Jets Under -14.5 (-134)
New York has been abysmal in recent weeks against two of the worst teams in the NFL. Don’t expect that to change this week against Baltimore.
Sam Darnold has been much better at not turning the ball over in recent weeks, but that hasn’t translated to much on offense. Robbie Anderson is putting up solid numbers but he has done so against cornerbacks nowhere near the level of Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters and the rest of the Ravens secondary. Matt Judon is playing the best of his career and gets one of the worst offensive lines in football this week.
With just a few days to heal up from a tough division game and prepare for the best team in the league, it all adds up to bad news for the Darnold and the Jets. New York will have one decent drive but otherwise be unimpressive throughout.
