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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Vasilios Nikolaou

Ravens mock draft – probability edition: Picking the best player available most often

It’s almost here. The 2020 NFL Draft is just over a week away and everyone is chomping at the bit to know what the Baltimore Ravens will do. In a world of a million mock drafts, I decided to take a deeper look into the possibilities that players will actually be available for Baltimore.

For this mock draft, I ran three different mock draft simulators — The Draft Network, Mock Draft Database and eight different big boards on FanSpeak — to find the probability a player would be available for the Ravens when they’re on the board. I didn’t account for any trades in this mock and every player named in it was either the best player available, a positional need, or a combination of the two.

The hope is we’ll see which options will realistically still be on the board so we can better guess which way Baltimore will go in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Photo by Brett Deering/Getty Images

1st Round, Pick 28

LB Kenneth Murray, Oklahoma – Available 40% of the time

Murray was the most frequently available player at No. 28. The only player close to his frequency was fellow linebacker Patrick Queen (20% of the time). Between the two linebackers, the Ravens took a linebacker 60% of the time.

Murray is blazing fast for a linebacker, running a 4.5-second 40-yard dash at the NFL Scouting Combine. However, his decision-making skills are the biggest knock against him, seeing him susceptible to getting roped in by play action.

Murray had the benefit of playing behind a talented defensive line at Oklahoma and if the Ravens drafted him, he certainly would benefit from playing behind the likes of Calais Campbell, Matthew Judon, Brandon Williams and Derek Wolfe.

Murray is clearly fast enough but will need to develop better instincts and decision-making skills to really flourish in the NFL.

Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

2nd Round, Pick 55

WR Laviska Shenault, Colorado – Available 35% of the time

Shenault was the most selected player at this spot by far, with other players tied up at only two selections each (10% availability). Through all of the mocks, the Ravens selected a receiver here 50% of the time, which makes sense in this deep draft class.

Shenault has game-breaking speed and physicality after the catch, though his route-running prowess requires some refining to take advantage of his positives. He’s the type of receiver that can play in any spot on the offense and thrive but the slot might be the best fit for him in Baltimore. Willie Snead is the proven commodity, but the Ravens could opt to add more electricity to the position.

A combination of Marquise Brown, Shenault and Mark Andrews would be prolific with 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson slinging the ball. Shenault has the height and speed to succeed in the NFL, and a good coaching staff should be able to get the best out of him.

Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

2nd Round, pick 60

DL Raekwon Davis, Alabama – Available 20% of the time

 

This pick was much closer than the previous two, with offensive lineman Jonah Jackson finishing with three selections (15% availability). The Ravens selected a defensive lineman or edge defender with this pick 60% of the time.

Davis is a big body at 6-foot-6 and over 300 pounds, and would quickly find a way into the defensive rotation, especially with the recent departures of Michael Pierce and Chris Wormley. He has incredible strength and range due to extremely long arms, which would already make him a huge asset in run defense.

While Davis has issues getting to the quarterback, he has all the physical gifts and traits to eventually grow into that type of role. Learning from Derek Wolfe and Calais Campbell for a year or two should do him good and make him into a far better player in every regard.

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