Ravens coach John Harbaugh rolled the dice in his team's 33-28 loss Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs, opting to go for it on fourth down several times and attempt multiple 2-point conversions.
He had mixed results in the gambles and some of his decisions proved pivotal in an eventual one-possession game.
After the game, Harbaugh said that the analytics backed his decisions and he doubled down on his fearlessness, saying, "We don't play scared." He provided more insight into his decision-making process and the use of analytics Monday at his weekly news conference.
"It's part of what we do," Harbaugh said. "It's not all what we do. I have a good understanding of the numbers and how it works. I have people in my ear that help with that as well, which is important. Not just with that, but with challenges and things like that. We're very organized in what we do and we have a method and a process. It's very detailed and well-thought-out.
"We're standing by our decisions. Our decisions gave us the best chance to win the game, in that particular game. These are not like league average choices. These are determined by this game and for this game specifically, in that venue. Weather is even factored into it. ... It wasn't a field position game. It was a possession game. Making the most of each possession was what counted."
Analytics and advanced metrics have studied when going for 2 and attempting fourth-down conversions are appropriate. Using statistics from FiveThirtyEight and the New York Times 4th Down Bot, The Baltimore Sun looked into whether Harbaugh's claim was accurate.
Note that while the analytics might say to make a certain decision, the situation matters as well, and the numbers don't account for that.
